I have always said that need is a factor. But in the hierarchy of deciding factors, it is last.
Talent level
Character
Position
Need.
The genius of Thompson is taking the scouting reports and quantifying them so you can compare players scouted by different scouts and players at different position.
If you assign number values of Talent, Character and Position you can add them up. Then if there is a group at the top of the list when you make your selection, decide by need.
If you take that number value, you can see if there is a guy higher up on the list when it is your turn to pick. You can also see if there is a guy at the top the list that has a large gap behind him. Like an overlooked player sliding down in the draft. Rodgers, Matthews and Bulaga are good examples.
Which is one of the reasons Thompson was willing to "over pay" for a 26th over all pick. If he saw Matthews as the 10th best player on the board. Not the 26th. So people using the formula calculating the value of the pick would say that Thompson overpaid. Even though the player he got was worth a lot more than a 26th pick.
You can also see if there is a cluster of players at or near the same level later in the draft. If you have a late 2nd and the next 10 of 15 players have the same rating, trading back will give you more picks and not drop off the talent of your pick. Giving you the same talent level and an extra pick.
Everytime you pass up a better player for a weaker player, you make your team weaker. Because someone is going to take that stronger player you passed up on. If you do that on a consistent basis over 5 years, your entire team will eventually be a weaker team.
Thompson picks for 3-5 years down the road. Last years needs are not going to be this years needs. We needed an OLB last year, there is no way to say that we will still need an OLB when the season rolls around. Now project that out 3 years and you will see the fallacy of trying to pick by need. You end up driving looking through the rear view mirror.
In '09, we had depth issues at CB. It cost us a few games including being unable to stop Arizona in the playoffs. In '10, if the Packers had passed up on the first round pick Bulaga and taken a CB like most of the fans and pundits said they would, it would have been a wasted pick. By the time the season rolled around, we no longer needed CBs. We actually needed Inside LBs. So reaching for CB in that draft would have netted a weaker player in a position we ended up not needing. In fact, Thompson didn't pick up a CB in that draft. That was our position of greatest need according to many. Lowering the grade for the draft because Thompson failed to pick up a CB.
Expecting anybody to be a starter outside of a first round pick is ridiculous. Even in the first round that is a long shot. So you are really not gong to be able to fill a hole from the previous year if you did pick for need and the unlikely event that the needs don't change between last year and the next.
The strength of this team is its depth. The only way to build that depth is to take better players than everyone else. Let others reach for need like the Vikings and Bears. We will have a stronger team than they do if we keep picking for strength and they keep chasing weaker players to fill the previous years holes.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.