Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago

If Brees had Colston for a couple of more games, he gets a 100 more yards, etc. Where does it stop? I think there are a lot of HUGE assumptions in that analysis. May be with more pass attempts, Rodgers gets sacked more and gets hurt, who knows. What happened, happened, you can't discredit Brees's season IMO.

I think Brees record is BS because of passing statistics these days (including QB ratings) but he is still having an awesome season. I think its insane if Rodgers does not win in a romp due to the Dome thing but honestly I don't think NFL voters factor that stuff in (and arguably may be they should not as you can't punish someone for playing a Dome). I think Brees is have a world class season and I am not going to take anything away from that but I think its not even close - Rodgers in a romp. If Rodgers didn't have the Bears game and went 200 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT or something, its much closer but I think after the Bears game, its OVER.

Originally Posted by: RedSoxExcel 


What it comes down to is, per attempt, Rodgers is much better. About 20% better. Which is why I agree that he should get the MVP.

It is not to say what if. Rodgers didn't pass for over 6000 yards so it is just to compare how productive he really is to how productive Brees really is. I could just as easily have taken Brees and calculated how many yards he would have gotten with Rodgers number of attempts and drops.

I am going to take a lot away from Brees' accomplishments because YARDS DON'T MATTER.

Of the 15 games where a QB put up 400+ passing yards this year, they lost 10 times. The 15 best performances by QBs this years ranked by yards, were in a losing effort 67% of the time.

If Brees set a record in a stat where the leader wins more often than 50%, I would be much more impressed.

QB rating has gone up 8 points since Dan Marino's time. Between '83 and '99 the average was about 76. This year it is about 84. However, the passer rating only has a little to do with total yards and more to do with passing efficiency.

Rodgers career average is more than 20 points above the NFL average for his career. He is one of only 5 to ever play the NFL to be able to accomplish that. It is Sid Luckman, Sammy Baugh, Otto Graham, Aaron Rodgers and Steve Young.

As far as single season, this year Rodgers is 122.5 and the average is 84.4 So he is 38.1 above average this year. Which would put him 8th on the all time best single season rating list. Between Peyton Manning in'04 and Bart Starr in '66.

All records in the NFL are like that were the standard is raised every year. The records that are most impressive are the ones that stand the longest before falling. Like Don Hutson's records.
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dhazer
12 years ago
If you go by the stats it will be Brees in a close one. Here is what I am talking about:

Yards
Brees #1 Rodgers #3

Tds
Brees # 2 Rodgers #1

Comp pct
Brees #1 Rodgers #2

QBR ( I hate this one)

Brees #2 Rodgers #1

With Brees playing for something he could possibly tie Rodgers Td mark this week which would put Brees #1 in 3 of the 4 main qb stats.

And I am hearing a lot saying Brees has less to work with what I think is bs if you go by dropped passes. I mean c'mon Finley has 11 of them this year by himself.

Plus Brees broke the record which got him attention and that will play a part. And it is kind of like college football and it is what have you done lately. Rodgers numbers have fallen off plus the bad loss to the Chiefs will stick in the voters mind.


Iwant Rodgers to win it but if he don't I won't be upset because then it will put a chip back on Aaron's shoulder.
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musccy
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  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
12 years ago
although I agree with what you're saying Dexter, I don't know that any voter is going to look that in depth into the stats.

You have 3 guys with 18 sacks who might be candidates for DPOY. To be fair, an AP voter should probably disect the stats similarly...# of snaps played, # double teams, how many sacks came on 3rd and long vs. 2nd and short, etc. However, I doubt many voters would delve nearly in depth as any of us are. I imagine they look at the stats, eye ball test, record and then move on to the next vote.
mi_keys
12 years ago

If you go by the stats it will be Brees in a close one. Here is what I am talking about:

Yards
Brees #1 Rodgers #3

Tds
Brees # 2 Rodgers #1

Comp pct
Brees #1 Rodgers #2

QBR ( I hate this one)

Brees #2 Rodgers #1

With Brees playing for something he could possibly tie Rodgers Td mark this week which would put Brees #1 in 3 of the 4 main qb stats.

And I am hearing a lot saying Brees has less to work with what I think is bs if you go by dropped passes. I mean c'mon Finley has 11 of them this year by himself.

Plus Brees broke the record which got him attention and that will play a part. And it is kind of like college football and it is what have you done lately. Rodgers numbers have fallen off plus the bad loss to the Chiefs will stick in the voters mind.


Iwant Rodgers to win it but if he don't I won't be upset because then it will put a chip back on Aaron's shoulder.

Originally Posted by: dhazer 



You missed turnovers. Brees has turned the ball over 14 times (13 picks and 1 fumble lost) compared to the 6 picks Rodgers has. That's 133% more turnovers. For the record, out of qualified passers according to NFL.com Rodgers is 3rd in fewest interceptions and Brees is 19th.

Whether or not you hate QBR it is derived from the fact that Rodgers is better on yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. Actually, the QBR doesn't even capture how much better Rodgers has been in those metrics.

Rodgers is also a significantly larger threat with his feet than Brees with about 250 yards and 3 touchdowns to just 80 and 1 for Brees. He's on the team with the best record which is factored in too and the Packers won the head to head matchup. For those reasons I expect the voters to choose Rodgers.



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Nonstopdrivel
12 years ago
Actually, Rodgers has 7 turnovers (6 INTs, 1 fumble), but your point stands.
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Zero2Cool
12 years ago

With Brees playing for something he could possibly tie Rodgers Td mark this week which would put Brees #1 in 3 of the 4 main qb stats.

Originally Posted by: dhazer 



Hold up. When the hell did ESPN's QBR become a major QB stat over QB rating that's used by everyone else?

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Stevetarded
12 years ago

Hold up. When the hell did ESPN's QBR become a major QB stat over QB rating that's used by everyone else?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Probably since whenever Rodgers topped the NFL record for passer rating.
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mi_keys
12 years ago

Actually, Rodgers has 7 turnovers (6 INTs, 1 fumble), but your point stands.

Originally Posted by: Nonstopdrivel 



I was going off NFL.com which lists 4 fumbles with 0 lost for Rodgers this year.

http://www.nfl.com/player/aaronrodgers/2506363/profile 
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Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago

Hold up. When the hell did ESPN's QBR become a major QB stat over QB rating that's used by everyone else?

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 


I have a reason to use Passer Rating over QB rating.

You can go back to 1940 and look up the stats for Arnie Herber and get his rating. You can't do that with QB rating.

The passer rating is also a very strong indicator of the strength of your team. After 16 weeks it gets you a pretty good idea of where you stand.

It isn't perfect because there are plenty of other factors that go into wins. Running, ST, Run D, Lucky bounces and officiating. However the correlation to winning is strong enough that it is my favorite stat.

Specially combining the OPR and DPR to get the PRD.

We don't have enough QB ratings to tell if the correlation to wins is as strong yet. That is something I am going to have to figure out one of these days.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
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Zero2Cool
12 years ago

I have a reason to use Passer Rating over QB rating.

You can go back to 1940 and look up the stats for Arnie Herber and get his rating. You can't do that with QB rating.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



If you have the attempts, completions, yards, TD's and interceptions you most certainly can. What is passer rating? Is that the ESPN QBR thing? I assume so since that's we are talking about.

There's no reason to use Passer Rating (ESPN?) over QB Rating. Although I don't believe one is better than the other, I don't think ESPN's QBR is a legitimate substitute for QB Rating because it's something ESPN recently came up with. Why stop there, why not use the Aikman Rating system for teams while we're at it?

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