The elite QBs: are they lucky or just real good?
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 29, 2010
By Nate Dunlevy
Cold, Hard Football Facts lucky horseshoe
BrettFavre drops back to pass. Then he just drops. Then he picks himself up. Then he fires toward the end zone where Randy Moss is waiting. The ball sails over Moss’s head, ending the last hope of a Vikings comeback.
That’s how Green Bay’s 28-24 win over Minnesota ended last Sunday. For one week at least, Aaron Rodgers gets the win in a close game.
No one has ever claimed that Rodgers has it easy. BrettFavre still casts a long shadow in Green Bay (well, most of him does anyway). Despite the four-point win over the Vikings, the Pack has struggled in close games.
Many have questioned Rodgers' ability to perform in the clutch. After all, the Pack is just 7-14 in games decided by 8 points or less during Rodgers' tenure as quarterback.
Does that mean that Rodgers is a failure a “clutch” QB? To examine the question, let's look at the elite quarterbacks from the past five years and compare them with three of the most controversial signal callers in the league.
Without question, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Brett Favre and the now-retired Kurt Warner have the most distinguished resumes in the NFL over the past five years. All have won Super Bowl during their careers, and the group boasts 15 different MVP awards between the regular season and the Super Bowl.
This second group of quarterbacks has been statistically elite, but their teams have struggled mightily this year and none of them has had much postseason success: Phil Rivers, Tony Romo, and Rodgers.
Record in games decided by 8 points or less since 2005 through Week 6 2010 (including playoffs):
(Click here to view table )
As you can see, Rodgers has indeed lost a lot of close games as Packers quarterback. However, it's also plain that most elite quarterbacks have roughly .500 records in close games.
The only exceptions are Brady, who is an incredible 20-11 in games decided by 8 points or less, and Manning, whose team wins close games at almost the exact same clip it wins all games. In other words, there's a reason Manning and Brady get all the hype: when the game is on the line, none of the other elite quarterbacks are even close.
Wins and losses don't tell the whole story, however. Let's see how these men actually played during close games.
(Click here to view table )
Despite the worst winning percentage on the list, the numbers say that Rodgers has actually played very well in tight games. In fact, none of these elite quarterbacks have played nearly as well in losses as Rodgers has (see note on Brady and Manning).
Averages don't tell the whole story either. How often did each man play well and poorly in close wins and losses?
(Click here to view table )
When Manning or Brady play supremely in a close game, their teams rarely lose. When Rodgers has a big game, if the score is close, the Packers are likely to be on the wrong end of it.
Rodgers has never had a true stinker in a close game, but his record is terrible anyway. He has good ratings in close games as often or more often than many of the quarterbacks on the list. He's never had a statistically awful day in a close loss, but still his record lags behind the other elite quarterbacks of today.
It may be that football involves more luck than anyone wants to admit. The fact is that Rodgers has probably had more than his share of bad luck.
So who is getting all the good luck? Try Eli Manning. His career record in close games is a glittering 25-13 (.658), despite posting ratings of 86.8 in wins, 83.2 in losses, and 85.6 overall. His Giants win lots of close games, and Eli just does his thing, playing about the same in wins and losses alike. The Packers lose close games under Rodgers no matter how well he plays.
Sometimes, that's just how the ball bounces.
The best example of this last Sunday was actually Ben Roethlisberger against the Dolphins. With just minutes remaining in the game, Big Ben dove for a go-ahead touchdown, but fumbled the ball into the end zone where the Dolphins recovered.
Roethlisberger was lucky, however. The official missed the call, ruling the play a touchdown. There was a clear replay showing he fumbled before reaching the goal line. But there was no clear replay angle showing the recovery by Miami. Pittsburgh was awarded the ball at the one, and kicked a game winning field goal.
Roethlisberger had an excellent passer rating on Sunday, and it will go down in the books as a close game win, and a fourth-quarter comeback.
The record books won't show just how much luck was involved in getting there.
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Methodology notes:
Close games were determined by final margin of victory. I realize this is not perfect because it eliminates close games where a late turnover skewed the final score (like Favre verses the Jets this season). However, it does provide an effective snap shot of how the players performed on days when a play or two could have made the difference for their teams.
Certain games for Manning, Brady, and Rivers were disregarded from the 'close game' totals because they played sparingly in end of season contests. These numbers were included in their total winning percentage and yearly stats, simply because it was easier to calculate, and not significant.
Both Manning and Brady suffered close losses in which they had particularly bad games. Manning threw 6 picks against San Diego in 2008, and Brady threw four against Indianapolis in 2005. Because they had so few total close losses, their close loss passer ratings were both artificially depressed because of one game. Take away the one loss to San Diego and Manning's close loss rating jumps to 91.1. Brady's would jump to 83.6.
Romo's role in Monday night's close loss to the Cowboys was not calculated because he did not play the second half.