Though I don't think you took it this way it was nothing personal, I just disagree with you on this issue. Wind is part of the game (unless you're a pansy from Minnesota and you play indoors). Kickers are supposed to compensate for the elements. If they fail to do so it is on them. Odds are if weather was a factor it was a factor for both teams for most if not all of the game. How often has a bird been struck by a field goal or extra point? How often have animals in general significantly impacted the outcome of an important play?
Originally Posted by: mi_keys
I know kickers judge for the wind. My point was even when they watch, an unexpected gust can come up. If there is no breeze and one comes up after the ball is in flight how can he compensate for it? Just bad luck. (not skill)
As far as I know in the recent past no animals have been harmed in the playing of a game. My point once again is to say it is POSSIBLE (not probable) that a team can wind up in OT without blowing just as many chances at the other team. But even if they do, so what? They put on their jocks and they take their chances every week. Their big boys.
How? Who calls the toss is irrelevant. They have a 50% chance of being right. There is no strategy or ability involved in a coin toss. The away team is just as likely to win the coin toss if they call it as they would be if the home team called it. Coin tosses are a "non-football event" insomuch as they are irrelevant to any skill, attribute, quality, or thought process you would develop from playing the game. The two teams could just as easily play rock, paper, scissors at the start of a game to decide who kicks off and it would not have the slightest impact on the game of football. If you lined up Clay Matthews with a 1st grader at a local elementary school and had them play 1,000,000 games of coin toss they would split the series at about 50%. That would not be true for anything else in football.
Except for in overtime, with sudden death, the team that gets possession of the ball first has an inherent advantage. This is born out in the statistics. According to an article from advanced NFL stats, during 2000-2007 teams that won the coin toss won 60% of the time (compared to home teams only winning 51% of overtime games). That number seems about right given what I remember being cited just about every time a game goes to overtime.
Originally Posted by: mi_keys
You are really complaining about a 9.8% difference aren't you?
According to the statistics examined by the committee, teams that won the coin toss at the start of overtime games won 59.8 percent of the time since ’94. Further, the team that won the coin toss won 34.4 percent of the time on its first possession.
Someone has to win and someone lose. 50-50. The team that gets the ball first wins 9.8% more often. AND IT WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE WHEN THEY MOVE THE KICKOFF UP.
What they study does not factor in is the real stats. Was the visiting team actually the better team and thus should have won in regulation? Did one of the teams have a major injury during the game that impacted the outcome? Did the weather turn dramatically worse as the game progressed? There are a lot of other reasons for the receiving team to have won the game other than the won the coin toss.
Oh and by the way, who calls the toss is relevant, in your mind. As the team that wins the toss luckily wins the game. They have a higher than 50% chance of getting it the call right. Statistically speaking.
For the team that wins the coin toss all they have to do is drive into field goal range and score (this hardly requires a collapse from the defense as you put it). For the team that losses the coin toss they have to stop the other team and then their offense has to come out and score (unless you have Al Harris, because he's just awesome).
Originally Posted by: mi_keys
That average kickoff is returned to somewhere around the 24 yard line. They have to get down to the opposing 35 yard line just to have an outside chance. Of course it is not asking them to gain 80 yards on 1 play but they have to sustain a drive and the defense is not stopping them. It is a collapse of sorts otherwise teams would do so every possession of every game.
If both teams get stopped on their first possession then the team that won the coin toss gets the ball back and now they've had two chances to the other team's one. No matter how long this goes on the team that wins the toss will either have the same number of chances to score (if the other team scores) or one more chance to score (if they score).
Originally Posted by: mi_keys
yes the team gets the ball back and has 2 chances, how unfair. 🤦 My point. I don't care. Each team already got the ball in regulation.
Since the team that wins the coin toss wins the game 60% of the time, that means on average they have had .6 more possessions per overtime game than the team that losses the toss. Or in other words, that's 74 more possessions for the teams that won the coin toss over the 124 overtime games from 2000-2007. That is NOT equitable.
Originally Posted by: mi_keys
life is not fair. I moved on. I can live with it. As I said fair is for peewee and HS. They are men.
There's a huge difference between taking calculated risks and playing a game of chance. When you talk about jumping routes that comes down to the defensive back having studied game film on their opposition, knowing tendencies, and making a snap judgment effectively on what's the expected costs or gains to his decision. For instance, Tramon Williams' pick six against the Falcons this past year was a product of him recognizing the play from film study. He jumped the route, not knowing for certain he had the right read, but knowing the odds were heavily in his favor. He made a good decision which turned out to also be the right decision. He stacked the odds in his favor through his diligence in the film room and his ability to recognize key tells in Atlanta's offense. And as you've phrased it, misreading isn't even chance, it's making a mistake. It's the same thing for a quarterback and reading the defense for a timing route.
There is no analogous situation for a coin flip. You can't study film on it and make a better decision. There is no pattern to read and no way to improve your odds. It is pure chance.
Originally Posted by: mi_keys
ouch. You take one above average player and you equate every single Int attempt to someone who is as hard working as Williams was in his 4th season? That's harsh. Your very statement implies all the other players do the same and try to validate that there is no luck whatsoever involved. Only skill and hard work. Not a single player has misread a play jumped a route and caught a poorly thrown pass or a ball that was deflect to them in a spot they would not have been in, IF they were in proper coverage position? Interesting.
Let's say this, the GOOD ones do their work. They know tendencies. They deserve the credit for making the plays. Fine. I was not speaking of them. YOU said, in so many words, there is no luck involved in the NFL. Only skill. I pointed out that there is indeed "some" luck, "some" time and then made a general illustration hoping you would take it for what it was worth. There have been a few GB players in the past 10 years that made the INT and people were all happy about it. I looked at the play, thought the outcome was great but wished the guy had been in the right coverage/position when he made the pick. (Of course if he had been there would not have been a pick on that play but that is besides the point.) Those guys are not in GB nor are most of them in the NFL these days. But there are always a handful of them on most teams. Thus luck is a part of the game.
Let's change to a punt. There is some luck in how the ball bounces. the kicker has skill. He practices his kicks into the corner. He practices his kicks to the goal line. But there is some luck in getting the ball to bounce back ONE THIS SPECIFIC OCCASION instead of bouncing into the end zone.
What about the fumble that hits the ground and bounces back into the running backs arms? No luck? All skill?
There are a lot of other times when luck/chance come into play. I am too tired to mess with it any more. Luck/chance/skill/poor calls are all a part of the game. Nothing is even.
Anyway- The rules are what they are. I am satisfied you are not. If the owners decide that they want to be "fair" instead of simply breaking a tie and they resort to college or HS rules, you will be happy and I will feel it is one more way they have cheapened the game for the sake of PC.
On your next post you will win the discussion because I am just to tired to express my opinion any longer. So you win in OT. congratulations.