Jacob
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13 years ago
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/27652/calling-canton-aaron-rodgers-in-context 

Every summer, the Pro Football Hall of Fame welcomes a new class of elite achievers behind its sacred walls. Some were destined for the honor from the moment they entered the NFL. Others blossomed later in their careers, and a few benefited from adjusted judgments over time.

No matter the parameters, I want to use this slow(er) time of the year to consider the nascent candidacies of our most prominent NFC North players. We could easily generate a list of a half-dozen or so players who deserve inclusion in this discussion. I have some thoughts, but your nominations are welcome (via the mailbag.) We'll start, however, with a player who has opened his career with a performance that rivals any put forth by the most recent inductees at his position.

In his first three years as a starter, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played at a Hall-of-Fame pace. He is nowhere close to achieving the career milestones that would qualify him for enshrinement, but that is a function of time and not performance.

In researching this topic, I isolated Rodgers' combined production during the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons. I then compared it to the first three full-time seasons of the past seven quarterbacks to enter the Hall of Fame. (Pro-football-reference.com has an excellent database for this kind of exercise.)

The results:

A HALL OF FAME START

At the very least, the first three seasons as a starter for Aaron Rodgers compares favorably with the eight most recent enshrinees into the Pro Football Hall of Fame at the position.
Name Years Starts Comp. Att. Pct. Yards TDs INTs Rat. Record Titles
Aaron Rodgers '08-10 47 1,003 1,552 64.6 12,394 86 31 99.4 27-20 1
Troy Aikman '89-91 38 618 1,055 58.6 7,082 31 46 70.5 14-26 0
John Elway '83-85 40 664 1,244 53.4 8.152 47 52 69.0 27-13 0
Jim
Kelly '86-88 44 804 1,351 59.5 9,771 56 45 81.7 22-22 0
Dan Marino '83-85 41 871 1,427 61.0 11,431 98 44 96.4 33-8 0
Joe Montana '80-82 32 700 1,107 63.2 7,973 51 32 88.1 18-14 1
Warren Moon '84-86 45 715 1,315 54.4 9,536 40 59 69.1 12-33 0
Steve Young '91-93* 42 762 1,143 66.7 10,005 71 31 103.5 29-13 0
*First three years as San Francisco 49ers starter
Some thoughts:

* Rodgers started 47 of a possible 48 games over this period, more than every Hall of Famer we compared him to. That alone gave him the opportunity for better raw production. It's also fair to point out that Rodgers spent the first three seasons of his career in development on the sideline, a luxury none of the other quarterbacks received. But no matter how you look at it, Rodgers threw for more yards in his first three seasons as a starter than any of the past seven quarterbacks who have been enshrined.

* Also consider that Rodgers threw for more touchdowns than all but Dan Marino, had a better completion percentage and passer rating than all but Steve Young, and tied Young for the fewest number of interceptions. Rodgers and Joe Montana were the only quarterbacks in this group to win a Super Bowl during one of his first three years as a starter.

* In some cases, it was difficult to find perfect apples-to-apples comparisons. I skipped Young's tenure with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and in the USFL, instead using the first three seasons after he replaced Montana as the San Francisco 49ers' starter. Young was 30 years old at the time and seven years removed from his entrance into pro football. I also skipped Montana's mostly inactive first season with the 49ers, but his sample size was still limited to 32 starts because of the 1982 NFL players strike.


Many of you will rightfully note the NFL's recent shift toward passing offenses and suggest that Rodgers' raw production is in part a product of his era. Fair point. To address it, I looked at three contemporaries whose advanced careers make them near-locks for election. In the second chart, you'll see how Rodgers' first three years stack up against the same span for Brett Favre, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. As you can see, the start of Rodgers' career compares favorably to each player:

IN MODERN CONTEXT

Aaron Rodgers' first three years as a starter in comparison to three contemporaries who figure to make the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Name Years Starts Comp. Att. Pct. Yards TDs INTs Rat. Record Titles
Aaron Rodgers '08-10 47 1,003 1,552 64.6 12,394 86 31 99.4 27-20 1
Tom Brady '01-03 46 954 1,541 61.9 10,227 69 38 86.0 34-12 1
Brett Favre '92-94 45 983 1,575 62.4 10,412 70 51 83.0 26-19 0
Peyton Manning '98-00 48 1,014 1,679 60.4 12,287 85 58 85.4 26-22 0
Let's be clear here. Just about every quarterback on this list improved in a substantive way over the course of his career. The rest maintained an extraordinary level of consistency over a decade or more. Rodgers already has the highest passer rating in the history of the NFL for quarterbacks with at least 1,000 attempts. It's unreasonable to expect a significant surge in his raw numbers, and so a comparison after six years might look a little different.

While we're mentioning caveats, it's only fair to point out that some of the other quarterbacks -- especially Troy Aikman, John Elway and Peyton Manning -- opened their careers on struggling and/or rebuilding teams. Rodgers on the other hand, took over a team that had advanced to the NFC Championship Game the season before.

These permutations shouldn't detract from what Rodgers has done, however. His early career deserves to be placed among those who ultimately proved to be among the best ever. Whether he continues on to Canton will be a function of his health and continued elite play for perhaps another five to seven years. That isn't an afterthought. Put another way, Rodgers probably needs to put together two more three-year stretches like the one he has just finished to put himself in strong position for the Hall of Fame.

Of all the careers I looked at, Young's might provide the best parallel. Like Rodgers, Young got a later start. In essence, Young put together seven elite seasons as the 49ers starter, playing until he was 38 to get to that point. He was on three Super Bowl championship teams but the starter on just one.

Obviously, there are differences between Young's history and Rodgers. But we know this: Rodgers has put himself on the path to Canton, and if you want to see how he can complete that journey, take a look at Young's history.

We'll continue taking a look at other NFC North players in a similar position as the summer continues.

The floor is yours.

Kevin Seifert wrote:

Greg C.
13 years ago
We need the link. Hopefully the real article has the stats arranged in readable columns.
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Zero2Cool
13 years ago

We need the link. Hopefully the real article has the stats arranged in readable columns.

Originally Posted by: Greg C. 





Added.

UserPostedImage
Yerko
13 years ago
I usually can't stand Seifert's articles. This one I enjoy, not only because it is about the best QB in the game right now on the best team in the NFL, but because he makes some very good points. Want to doubt the numbers compared to the old-timers? Fine...here is Rodgers compared to more recent quarterbacks.

It is obviously extremely early to say something so crazy, but Rodgers has shown improvement every single season. Not only does he improve, but he is on a team that has a smart front office building a team around him, which will continue to increase his stats and place for a HoF career.
UserPostedImage
Greg C.
13 years ago
Thanks for adding the link, Zero.

Seifert is right to put the emphasis on comparing Rodgers to Steve Young. They both got a late start with their careers, but then played with very good teams. That's why their numbers stack up so well against the other QBs in the chart. If Young got to the Hall of Fame in spite of not really getting a chance until age 31, things look even more favorable for Rodgers.
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zombieslayer
13 years ago
Let's run some numbers here. One Pro Bowl. Zero All-Pros. One SB MVP.

156th all time in Attempts
138th all time in Completions
140th all time in Yards
132th all time in TDs
#1 all time in Passer Rating

After starting only 3 seasons, he's already made a mark. I really like the almost 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio he has and hope he can keep this up throughout his career.

Let's compare him to arguably the 3 best QBs active today besides Aaron. That would be Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees. Yes, Favre is retired and he's not coming back so I'm not going to include him.


QB TD INTs Rating
Aaron 87 32 98.4
Brady 261 103 95.2
Peyton 399 198 94.9
Drew 235 132 91.7



Pretty impressive start for Aaron. Of the four of them, the "older" three got better with age. Drew did much better in NO than he did in SD. Brady may have won 3 SBs in his earlier career, but didn't become a prolific passer until later in his career. Manning had a few shaky years in the beginning and his best years were the middle years of the last decade statistically.

IF Aaron continues the trend of the other 3, he's going to shatter their percentages in every way. I'm hoping he does. Tom and Peyton are shoe ins for not only the Hall but both will get in in their first year of eligibility. Brees should get in. That just means Aaron needs to play more years and he'll be a lock.

The thing is, he's not only will be a lock but only needs to continue at his pace and doesn't even have to improve. That's what's really crazy.

My man Donald Driver
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earthquake
13 years ago

Let's run some numbers here. One Pro Bowl. Zero All-Pros. One SB MVP.
The thing is, he's not only will be a lock but only needs to continue at his pace and doesn't even have to improve. That's what's really crazy.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 



Or even have the next 5-10 years be worse statistically, make some pro-bowls, some playoff games, etc and still be in consideration. I think the single biggest things that will prevent Aaron from being in the conversation for HOF are:
1. Injuries cutting his career short.
2. Significant drop offs in his play, which I dont think there is much reason to think is likely.
3. His team entirely falling apart and having many losing seasons, which seams unlikely as well.

So what we're looking at is, short of some freak injury that cuts his career short, if all he does is manage to keep up a good pace, he'll have a shot at the hall. Funny, I wonder how many people would have thought that this time about 3 years ago.

Then, you look at the stuff that will really help his cause:
1. Various All-pro and Pro-Bowl nods - Extremely Likely
2. Winning an NFL MVP - Likely, with the sort of stats he puts up and the national attention he will get after being a Superbowl MVP, its only a matter of time.
3. Winning another superbowl - Has a good chance at this
4. Winning another superbowl MVP - less likely, I think Montana is the only one ever to win two?

I'm not sure if Rodgers is a likely candidate to get too high on the all time records, as far as stats en masse, but I think he'll finish in the top 5 in the important ones, completion %, qb rating, td:int ratio, and win % in the playoffs.
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mi_keys
13 years ago

4. Winning another superbowl MVP - less likely, I think Montana is the only one ever to win two?

I'm not sure if Rodgers is a likely candidate to get too high on the all time records, as far as stats en masse, but I think he'll finish in the top 5 in the important ones, completion %, qb rating, td:int ratio, and win % in the playoffs.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



Bart Starr immediately came to mind so I looked it up and him along with Bradshaw and Brady have two each. Montana is the only one with 3.

As for getting high on the all time records list, if Rodgers were to play 10 more seasons (retiring at 37, not unreasonable IF he stays healthy) and maintains his averages from his first three seasons as a starter he will finish 4th in completions, yards, and touchdowns behind Favre, Manning, and Marino. In comparison he would only be 65th on the all time interception list despite having the 6th most attempts in history.

With Rodgers' averages he would also finish 4th on the all-time list for rushing yards by a quarterback (behind Cunningham, Vick, and Young) and he would demolish the record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (56 to 43 by Young with Vick currently at 32).

Some of Rodgers contemporaries could also figure into these career rankings--namely Brees, Brady, and Rivers (Manning is already ahead). Still, these players themselves would also have to play until their late 30s to do so and continue their dominant level of production. Either way, if Rodgers can maintain the level of play he has shown us these last three years for an extended career he will certainly finish in the top 10 of every major statistic, if not top 5.


For what it's worth, here are Rodgers' stats if he played 10 more years and maintained the same averages he has over his first 3 years as a starter:

Comp: 4,381
Att: 6,784
Comp Per: 64.6%
Yards: 54,036
TD: 374
Int: 135
Rating: 99.1
Rush Att: 782
Rush Yards: 3,865
Rush TD: 56
Fum: 107
Fum Lost: 38
Born and bred a cheesehead
Greg C.
13 years ago
I'm a little leery of us all getting ahead of ourselves here, but I have to admit that it is very interesting to look at those projected numbers. The rushing yards and TDs surprised me, although I suppose those are the numbers that are most likely to fall off in later years, so they probably won't come near those totals.
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PackerTraxx
13 years ago
If Aaron can stay healthy he's a lock IMHO.
Why is Jerry Kramer not in the Hall of Fame?
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beast (27-Apr) : Yeah, but also some of the wording suggestions Jax only pranked called the QB, not the others... and if he had an open spreadsheet & 3 calls
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Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Simmons put up an emoji with cheese.
beast (27-Apr) : Not sure anyone is interested in Isaiah Simmons... Collin Oliver might of taken his potential slot
beast (27-Apr) : I'm going with Jax Ulbrich is not telling the whole truth... he accidentally came across it? Why would a defensive coordinator have a QB #?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : He's not that great, but final piece of the script.\
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Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Colts 1st round TE Tyler Warren also got prank called, was that Jax Ulbrich as well?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Jax Ulbrich, Jeff Ulbrich’s son, released an apology for his role in the Shedeur Sanders prank call.
Martha Careful (27-Apr) : apparently he did not participate in practice or play on the east west shrine game nor the NFL combine. The kid was a mediocre spoiled brat
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Yeah that one that was a super wounded duck that Sanders supporters are highlighting to prove a point
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Shough is the guy who missed guys at combine isn't he?
beast (27-Apr) : It's not official until I'm dead! I have a chance still! (Not really)
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : I could feel my body decomposing in real time when I read that
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : @MIKEYSAINRISTIL Tyler Shough will officially be the last person drafted to the NFL born in the 1900’s
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : saw the tweet, he meant the city
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Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter · 3m Draft grade is in: Green Bay gets an A. The people, the city, the venue were all superb. NFL Draft’s next
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matt LaFleur says Jaire Alexander is participating in #Packers offseason program, which has been conducted virtually during this first week
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : ✅ ...
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