zombieslayer
13 years ago

Bart Starr immediately came to mind so I looked it up and him along with Bradshaw and Brady have two each. Montana is the only one with 3.

As for getting high on the all time records list, if Rodgers were to play 10 more seasons (retiring at 37, not unreasonable IF he stays healthy) and maintains his averages from his first three seasons as a starter he will finish 4th in completions, yards, and touchdowns behind Favre, Manning, and Marino. In comparison he would only be 65th on the all time interception list despite having the 6th most attempts in history.

With Rodgers' averages he would also finish 4th on the all-time list for rushing yards by a quarterback (behind Cunningham, Vick, and Young) and he would demolish the record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (56 to 43 by Young with Vick currently at 32).

Some of Rodgers contemporaries could also figure into these career rankings--namely Brees, Brady, and Rivers (Manning is already ahead). Still, these players themselves would also have to play until their late 30s to do so and continue their dominant level of production. Either way, if Rodgers can maintain the level of play he has shown us these last three years for an extended career he will certainly finish in the top 10 of every major statistic, if not top 5.


For what it's worth, here are Rodgers' stats if he played 10 more years and maintained the same averages he has over his first 3 years as a starter:

Comp: 4,381
Att: 6,784
Comp Per: 64.6%
Yards: 54,036
TD: 374
Int: 135
Rating: 99.1
Rush Att: 782
Rush Yards: 3,865
Rush TD: 56
Fum: 107
Fum Lost: 38

Originally Posted by: mi_keys 



Gave you a thanks because you did the math. That's a lot of work. =d>

Of all those numbers, I'm really hoping the TDs vs INTs ratio stays the same. That's what I want the most.

I seriously doubt though that the rushing yards, rushing TDs will stay similar. Most scrambling QBs end up scrambling a lot less and throwing a lot more as they get older.
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porky88
13 years ago
Once upon a time Kurt Warner was a lock for the Hall of Fame. Then something happen and his play dipped. Now, I think he came back strong in Arizona and will get in, but he's hardly a lock in the minds of Hall of Fame voters. Aaron Rodgers has a long career ahead of him. I hope that he can put up the career numbers he's on pace for, but he has along ways to go before you can punch a ticket to Canton.
Zero2Cool
13 years ago

Once upon a time Kurt Warner was a lock for the Hall of Fame. Then something happen and his play dipped. Now, I think he came back strong in Arizona and will get in, but he's hardly a lock in the minds of Hall of Fame voters. Aaron Rodgers has a long career ahead of him. I hope that he can put up the career numbers he's on pace for, but he has along ways to go before you can punch a ticket to Canton.

Originally Posted by: porky88 



I never really considered Kurt Warner to be a lock for the Hall of Fame, not really sure why to be honest. I suppose I could see how one would though, he does have a Super Bowl win, Super Bowl MVP and two NFL MVP's to his name, and also helped get Cardinals "relevant".



Then again, I think talking about an active player getting into the Hall of Fame is way too premature altogether. Especially when the player is on the field and folks are saying "future hall of famer" or even "hall of famer" when the player hasn't even retired yet. To me, it kind of saturates the accomplishment of getting into the Hall of Fame, just a little.
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zombieslayer
13 years ago
Warner's not a lock. The one thing that may keep him out is the INT he threw on the one yard line in the SB. Had that been a TD, the Cards win the SB with an impossible season. That one play may be the deal breaker.

He had several elite years and a lot of pedestrian ones. I'm predicting Brees has a better career.
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Dexter_Sinister
13 years ago
I looked up the careers for a bunch of "great" QBs that had fairly long careers. Montana, Brady, Manning, Brees, Favre, Rivers etc. The thing I noticed is that after their first 3 years as a starter, they all got 5-10 points higher in passer rating.

Granted that none of the QBs I looked up had 3 full years on the bench. Most of them did have a year or two. I wouldn't consider a year on the bench equal to a year starting though.

If Rodgers follows the historical precedent, his passer rating should increase to between 103 and 108 for the next 5 years.

If he finishes his career with a rating over 100, I would guess he would stand a fairly good chance of making the HOF. Specially if our D can keep it up so we get a couple more super bowls.

Another 3peat would be nice.
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porky88
13 years ago

Warner's not a lock. The one thing that may keep him out is the INT he threw on the one yard line in the SB. Had that been a TD, the Cards win the SB with an impossible season. That one play may be the deal breaker.

He had several elite years and a lot of pedestrian ones. I'm predicting Brees has a better career.

Originally Posted by: zombieslayer 


At one time, much like Aaron Rodgers is now, Warner was the next big thing in the NFL. Warner's three year run with the Rams is remarkable. At that time, the logic used right now for Rodgers was applied to Warner.

That was my point and not that he is a lock right now, though I think Warner sneaks in eventually. This HOF talk for a three-year starter is premature. If Rodgers’ career dips like Warner and he fails to rebound, he will not make the HOF. Will that happen? I don’t think so, but it is the NFL.

Predicting Brees has a better career isn’t exactly going out on a limb. He already has better numbers and a ring too.
mi_keys
13 years ago

Once upon a time Kurt Warner was a lock for the Hall of Fame. Then something happen and his play dipped.

Originally Posted by: porky88 



He stopped getting 8 seconds to throw the ball. The play of his offensive line during the "greatest show on turf" years was ridiculous. Warner seemed incapable of dealing with a pass rush in those days and his form dropped off considerably once that line got a week spot.

I know Rodgers has a long way to go before this ever might be a serious conversation but it's fun to think about what he might accomplish and this puts into perspective just how good he has been these first three years.
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Greg C.
13 years ago

He stopped getting 8 seconds to throw the ball. The play of his offensive line during the "greatest show on turf" years was ridiculous. Warner seemed incapable of dealing with a pass rush in those days and his form dropped off considerably once that line got a week spot.

Originally Posted by: mi_keys 



Poor protection may have had something to do with Warner's drop in production, but I think the severe hand injury he suffered in 2002 was the main problem. That injury lingered for awhile.
blank
mi_keys
13 years ago

Poor protection may have had something to do with Warner's drop in production, but I think the severe hand injury he suffered in 2002 was the main problem. That injury lingered for awhile.

Originally Posted by: Greg C. 



True, I had a bias towards Warner back then due to me living in St. Louis and the incessant ragging I got from my school mates. So I tend to be harsh on pre-Arizona Warner.
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zombieslayer
13 years ago

At one time, much like Aaron Rodgers is now, Warner was the next big thing in the NFL. Warner's three year run with the Rams is remarkable. At that time, the logic used right now for Rodgers was applied to Warner.

That was my point and not that he is a lock right now, though I think Warner sneaks in eventually. This HOF talk for a three-year starter is premature. If Rodgers’ career dips like Warner and he fails to rebound, he will not make the HOF. Will that happen? I don’t think so, but it is the NFL.

Predicting Brees has a better career isn’t exactly going out on a limb. He already has better numbers and a ring too.

Originally Posted by: porky88 



Yes, Rodgers is not a lock. It's just one of those fun to predict things. His numbers are absolutely amazing and on top of that, he's the 2nd best scrambler in the NFL currently. That's really cool. I used to really enjoy watching Steve Young because Young could move.

It's been said by others that Warner's OL really helped his career. Well, the OL has become TT/MM's big priority now. 2 straight years of 1st round picks and if I'm not mistaken, we've been picking OL every year at least once, more often than not, twice or 3 times. So I see our OL getting better, not worse.

Plus, TT/MM pick WRs every year. You gotta give your elite QB weapons. We've been doing that.
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