Greg C.
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14 years ago
Here are the drop percentages, according to the GB Press Gazette's article where they graded the receivers:

Greg Jennings--3.2% (4 drops)
Donald Driver--8.1% (7 drops)
James Jones--6.9% (6 drops)
Jordy Nelson--6.3% (4 drops)

A caveat is that I don't know how they decided which incompletions were and were not drops. But assuming these numbers are valid, James Jones doesn't look as bad as expected. I'm sure most of us thought he had dropped more than six during the regular season, though of course he did have two of his patented monster drops during the playoffs, which are not counted here.

I knew Driver had a lot of drops this year. People tend to overlook his mistakes because everyone loves him and the drops all occur on short yardage plays. He was strictly a possession receiver this year.

By the way, they say that Andrew Quarless dropped two passes in 33 times targeted, for a drop percentage of 6.3. Lee dropped zero in 12 times targeted. Crabtree dropped one (no percentage given).

http://packersnews.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20110212/PKR01/302130031/Grades-for-Packers-receivers 
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zombieslayer
14 years ago

Here are the drop percentages, according to the GB Press Gazette's article where they graded the receivers:

Greg Jennings--3.2% (4 drops)
Donald Driver--8.1% (7 drops)
James Jones--6.9% (6 drops)
Jordy Nelson--6.3% (4 drops)

A caveat is that I don't know how they decided which incompletions were and were not drops. But assuming these numbers are valid, James Jones doesn't look as bad as expected. I'm sure most of us thought he had dropped more than six during the regular season, though of course he did have two of his patented monster drops during the playoffs, which are not counted here.

I knew Driver had a lot of drops this year. People tend to overlook his mistakes because everyone loves him and the drops all occur on short yardage plays. He was strictly a possession receiver this year.

By the way, they say that Andrew Quarless dropped two passes in 33 times targeted, for a drop percentage of 6.3. Lee dropped zero in 12 times targeted. Crabtree dropped one (no percentage given).

http://packersnews.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20110212/PKR01/302130031/Grades-for-Packers-receivers 

"Greg C." wrote:



It's not just the number of drops but what they were. Driver's drops were often up the middle where he was about to take a big hit or was going to get tackled for a first down and that's it. Jones' memorable drops were TDs.
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Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
What Zombieslayer said. I noticed Driver's drops throughout season, which is why I remarked a few times it wouldn't bother me much if he weren't back next season. Also, as already pointed out, the magnitude of the drops was typically different. Jones' drops were conspicuous because they were potentially game-changing plays. Driver's didn't seem to be, or at least not as often.
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djcubez
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14 years ago
I can't find the link right now but I remember reading that Jordy and Jones tied for the most this season with 10 drops apiece.

EDIT: Found it.


PASS OFFENSE (A)

At midseason, Aaron Rodgers was idling along ranked 16th in passer rating at 85.3 before he and the passing attack exploded. Over the remainder of the regular season, his play was so extraordinary (122.1 rating, 71.4% completion rate) that he vaulted to third at 101.2, trailing only Tom Brady (111.0) and Philip Rivers (101.8). Coupled with his postseason mark of 109.8, Rodgers' 19-game rating was 103.1. The Packers were fifth in passing yards (257.8) before averaging 260.3 in the playoffs. Green Bay wasn't a prolific deep-ball team, evidenced by the average distance of its TD passes (19.5) compared with 24.0 in '09 as well as its total of 17 completions for more than 35 yards, down from 24 in '09, 19 in '08 and 23 in '07. Certainly, Rodgers often looked to throw down the field, but the main thrust was spreading the ball around in short to intermediate zones. When cornerbacks played soft, Rodgers turned 30 called runs into one-step hitches with easy 5- to 8-yard gains. In the first four games, TE Jermichael Finley averaged 75.3 yards and played 25 more snaps (196) than any of the wide receivers. In Finley's five games, Greg Jennings averaged 36.6. Following Finley's exit with a blown knee, Jennings averaged 92.3 yards and had his greatest impact. There were 46 dropped passes, down from 50 in '09 but still too many. James Jones and Jordy Nelson each dropped 10. Jones led the team in average gain after the catch (5.16 yards). The Packers ranked 20th in percentage of sacks allowed. Rodgers was charged with 13 sacks, down three from '09, Chad Clifton was responsible for 8 and Bryan Bulaga for 6.



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Greg C.
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14 years ago
The thing is, a drop always yields the same result: It's an incompletion. So even though Driver's drops were on short passes and in traffic, that's only because he couldn't get open deep in the first place. Jones' drops were excruciating to watch because we could see what might have been, but really they were no more harmful than a drop of a short pass.

Interesting to see that another source has Jones and Nelson with 10 drops apiece. I wonder if they were counting some very hard-to-catch passes. I tend to be more conservative when I count drops, so I'm more inclined to go with the lower numbers.
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djcubez
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14 years ago

The thing is, a drop always yields the same result: It's an incompletion. So even though Driver's drops were on short passes and in traffic, that's only because he couldn't get open deep in the first place. Jones' drops were excruciating to watch because we could see what might have been, but really they were no more harmful than a drop of a short pass.

Interesting to see that another source has Jones and Nelson with 10 drops apiece. I wonder if they were counting some very hard-to-catch passes. I tend to be more conservative when I count drops, so I'm more inclined to go with the lower numbers.

"Greg C." wrote:



Yea I'm not certain what there qualifiers were. I'm also not sure if they're factoring in the playoffs or not.
macbob
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14 years ago

I can't find the link right now but I remember reading that Jordy and Jones tied for the most this season with 10 drops apiece.

"djcubez" wrote:



Not sure where they got their numbers at, but STATS LLC numbers agree with the GB Press Gazette's numbers (DD 7, JJ 6, etc)
PackFanWithTwins
14 years ago
What I have noticed about Jones, at least those drops I remember from him, were passes where he had his hand out in front, while looking back over his left shoulder. It seems if he is facing the ball, he makes the catch, if he is on a crossing route, he makes the catch. It is on Go or Post routes when he looks back over his left shoulder.

I wonder if he could have a blind spot that way. Even the TD in NE from Flynn he bobbled the ball an almost dropped it.

All around I remember a bunch of "Drops" where the ball had to be delivered early, and the WR were lucky to get hands on the ball at all. Yet as they say, if it hits their hands it should be caught.
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wpr
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14 years ago
maybe I am missing something. Was this for the playoffs or the season or what? If playoffs do they have the numbers for the season as well?
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RaiderPride
14 years ago
A 2009 study done by The University Of New Mexico Physics Department on the force of a thrown football combined with the softness and "EQUAL" motion and strength of both of the hands by the reciever is the key to a completion.

The study showed that 94.25 % of all droped footballs was a direct result of having a stronger right hand then left hand. This is a natural hand strength for most people.

That Superbowl ring will weigh a ton. After wearing the heavy ring on their left hand for a while the extra weight on the left hand will strengthen the left hand to the equal strength of the right hand.

This will make both hands equally strong for Jordy, Greg, Donald, and all of the recievers. Wearing the heavy Superbowl ring will eliminate 99.34 % of drops in the 2011 season due to equal hand softness, strength and motion combined with the force of football speed



Alright... Of Course... I just made that shit up.

But it sounds right.
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Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago
PackFanWithTwins brought up something I had also noticed but forgot to mention in the other thread. Most of Jones drops happen when his back is to the ball.

As fans, our definition of drop seems to be much more liberal than the definition held by statisticians. What is required to be labeled a drop? Does the receiver actually have to have his hands around the ball or something?
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Greg C.
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14 years ago

maybe I am missing something. Was this for the playoffs or the season or what? If playoffs do they have the numbers for the season as well?

"wpr" wrote:



The numbers in the initial post are for the regular season only. Maybe I should've made that clearer.
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peteralan71
14 years ago
If the yards per average would have stayed consistent, Rodgers would have had an extra 578 yards. If the same were true about touchdowns, he would have had 4 more. Interceptions, 2 (1.6) more. That would have given him a passer rating of 115.4 and a completion percentage of 75.4. In an ideal world......
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istanbulpacker
14 years ago


Alright... Of Course... I just made that shit up.

But it sounds right.

"RaiderPride" wrote:



RP,
It's a little known fact that 87.3% of all statistics quoted in conversation are made up on the spot.
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buckeyepackfan
14 years ago

If the yards per average would have stayed consistent, Rodgers would have had an extra 578 yards. If the same were true about touchdowns, he would have had 4 more. Interceptions, 2 (1.6) more. That would have given him a passer rating of 115.4 and a completion percentage of 75.4. In an ideal world......

"peteralan71" wrote:




The problem with that theory is this, I'll use one of Jordy's drops as the example.

Right before Jordy Nelson caught the crossing patern ball which he took down to the 2 yd line in The SuperBowl, he dropped a quick slant over the middle.

Had he caught the first pass(quick slant) which would have garnered a 1st down, there is a very good chance that the crossing pattern route he ran would have never happened.

Give credit to Aaron Rodgers who has never had a problem going back to a guy after a drop.

Statistics are for those who want to sit around and argue that this guy, or this team was better than that one.

The only statistic that really counts is w-l, and boys and girls this year we as Packer Fans got to witness the greatest win of all. SB Champs!!! Enjoy it.
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Stevetarded
14 years ago
The difference is Driver's drop problems were pretty much just this year and he had like 4 or 5 in just one game. James Jones has had drop problems every year and had dropsies this year in several games.
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Greg C.
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14 years ago

Statistics are for those who want to sit around and argue that this guy, or this team was better than that one.

"buckeyepackfan" wrote:



But isn't that pretty much the whole purpose of this web site?
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wpr
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14 years ago

Statistics are for those who want to sit around and argue that this guy, or this team was better than that one.

"Greg C." wrote:



But isn't that pretty much the whole purpose of this web site?

"buckeyepackfan" wrote:



Greg, Greg, Greg,

There have been, are and will be in the future plenty of posters who will argue till they are blue in the fingers, statistics and the facts be damned.
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zombieslayer
14 years ago


Greg, Greg, Greg,

There have been, are and will be in the future plenty of posters who will argue till they are blue in the fingers, statistics and the facts be damned.

"wpr" wrote:



Agreed with this.

I always try to put up as many stats as possible and as many facts as possible. I will also change my view when proven wrong. I've been proven wrong about O being more important than D, about Ted Thompson needing to go, about getting Randy Moss, even if it meant losing Aaron Rodgers, etc. I'll admit I was wrong.

Now others....
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Yerko
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14 years ago
I wonder what they consider a dropped pass. Regardless, that is a shocker. I did not expect to see Driver's name with the most drops.

One thing I did notice about Driver this year (being a short yardage possession receiver) is that he was continually looking upfield before catching the ball.

That is like Receiver 101 drills right there.
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