Zero2Cool
14 years ago
What was Mike Holmgrens record when the final score was 4 points, or less?

This can be found at Packers.com, but I don't have for the computation. I'll do it when I get home, if someone hasn't beaten me to it.

Year by year, Home and away.
Ex. 92 home 3 - 1, away 1 - 0, total 4 - 1
UserPostedImage
macbob
14 years ago

What was Mike Holmgrens record when the final score was 4 points, or less?

This can be found at Packers.com, but I don't have for the computation. I'll do it when I get home, if someone hasn't beaten me to it.

Year by year, Home and away.
Ex. 92 home 3 - 1, away 1 - 0, total 4 - 1

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



By this I take it you mean the margin of victory was 4 pts or less?

1992 3-1 (2-1 home, 1-0 away)
1993 3-3 (plus 1-0 postseason) (2-2 home, 1-1 away, 1-0 away playoffs)
1994 1-3 (plus 1-0 postseason) (1-0 home, 0-3 away, 1-0 home playoffs)
1995 1-3 (0-1 home, 1-2 away)
1996 1-0 (1-0 home)
1997 1-2 (1-2 away)
1998 1-1 (plus 0-1 postseason) (1-1 away, 0-1 away playoffs)


Total 11-13 regular season, 2-1 playoffs, 13-14 total
Home 7-4
Away 6-10
Stevetarded
14 years ago
I never got the whole 4 point cutoff thing anyways. Rodgers is something like 7-3 in games decided by 5-7 points but those games weren't close I guess.
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Zero2Cool
14 years ago
mac, thanks bud.



I never got the whole 4 point cutoff thing anyways. Rodgers is something like 7-3 in games decided by 5-7 points but those games weren't close I guess.

"Stevetarded" wrote:


I don't get it either, but I was curious what the difference was.
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mi_keys
14 years ago

mac, thanks bud.



I never got the whole 4 point cutoff thing anyways. Rodgers is something like 7-3 in games decided by 5-7 points but those games weren't close I guess.

"Zero2Cool" wrote:


I don't get it either, but I was curious what the difference was.

"Stevetarded" wrote:



If anything the cutoff should be 3 or less since you can make that difference up with a field goal. I'd be willing to bet the come back rate drops off from 3 to 4 points because you no longer have that option to settle for 3 and try for it in overtime. Don't know how to research it though without literally looking at the scores of every NFL game over a time period (or at the very least a representative sample).
Born and bred a cheesehead
macbob
14 years ago

mac, thanks bud.



I never got the whole 4 point cutoff thing anyways. Rodgers is something like 7-3 in games decided by 5-7 points but those games weren't close I guess.

"mi_keys" wrote:


I don't get it either, but I was curious what the difference was.

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



If anything the cutoff should be 3 or less since you can make that difference up with a field goal. I'd be willing to bet the come back rate drops off from 3 to 4 points because you no longer have that option to settle for 3 and try for it in overtime. Don't know how to research it though without literally looking at the scores of every NFL game over a time period (or at the very least a representative sample).

"Stevetarded" wrote:



But if that's the case, why isn't the cutoff 6, 7, or 8 pts? It takes the same (TD) to come back from that as it does from 4 pts.

Personally, I like 7 or less--it's any game that 1 score (and an extra pt, not a 2 pt conversion) can make up.

Just because it's also what ESPN uses for their close game stats in their splits section and that makes it convenient for analysis is just a coincidence. ::wink:
djcubez
14 years ago
I don't like pure statistical analysis to determine things like close games. At least not with the statistics we have today. How many close games have you seen that ended in a pick six? That's a 7 point swing. A 1 point game finished with a margin of victory of at least 8.

It all really depends on what you're attempting to analyze.

I don't think it's been brought up but Aaron Rodgers has always been criticized for losing close games. Analysts pull up games where the Packers lost by 3 points or less as proof. But if a person were to go back and look at games where the ball was in Aaron's hands at the end of the game--the Packers had the last possession--the win-loss record would probably change drastically. If you looked at games where Rodgers led his team back to tie or take a lead in their last possession it would probably look favorable.

Kind of off topic but it got me thinking. Even though I'm the guy that did the MOV stats for 8 coaches recently lol.
mi_keys
14 years ago

mac, thanks bud.



I never got the whole 4 point cutoff thing anyways. Rodgers is something like 7-3 in games decided by 5-7 points but those games weren't close I guess.

"macbob" wrote:


I don't get it either, but I was curious what the difference was.

"mi_keys" wrote:



If anything the cutoff should be 3 or less since you can make that difference up with a field goal. I'd be willing to bet the come back rate drops off from 3 to 4 points because you no longer have that option to settle for 3 and try for it in overtime. Don't know how to research it though without literally looking at the scores of every NFL game over a time period (or at the very least a representative sample).

"Zero2Cool" wrote:



But if that's the case, why isn't the cutoff 6, 7, or 8 pts? It takes the same (TD) to come back from that as it does from 4 pts.

Personally, I like 7 or less--it's any game that 1 score (and an extra pt, not a 2 pt conversion) can make up.

Just because it's also what ESPN uses for their close game stats in their splits section and that makes it convenient for analysis is just a coincidence. ::wink:

"Stevetarded" wrote:



That's obviously another major cutoff. If you looked at comebacks and records in 1-3 point games and 4-7 point games you'd probably get very different looking numbers.
Born and bred a cheesehead
macbob
14 years ago

I don't like pure statistical analysis to determine things like close games. At least not with the statistics we have today. How many close games have you seen that ended in a pick six? That's a 7 point swing. A 1 point game finished with a margin of victory of at least 8.

It all really depends on what you're attempting to analyze.

I don't think it's been brought up but Aaron Rodgers has always been criticized for losing close games. Analysts pull up games where the Packers lost by 3 points or less as proof. But if a person were to go back and look at games where the ball was in Aaron's hands at the end of the game--the Packers had the last possession--the win-loss record would probably change drastically. If you looked at games where Rodgers led his team back to tie or take a lead in their last possession it would probably look favorable.

Kind of off topic but it got me thinking. Even though I'm the guy that did the MOV stats for 8 coaches recently lol.

"djcubez" wrote:



That's what I like about ESPN's split stats--they're not based on the final score, but on the score at the point the play occurred in the game, whether tied, winning by 1-7, or losing by 1-7.
RashaanSalaami
14 years ago
Someone on another forum did a study on these "close" losses and in the end came to the conclusion that there aren't really any trends associated with them. Whether you sort by coach, team, quarterback, the trend usually comes right back to what simple probability would suggest and that is...they're 50/50. I sure hope we continue to get odds evening out over the next two games, if in fact they are close.
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