I know you're fixated on passer rating, but I'm not so much. I look more at things like turnovers and touchdown passes.
In their first three seasons as a starter, both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers started the same number of games: 47. Rodgers missed a game due to injury, and Favre didn't start the first game of the season.
In the first 47 starts of their careers (plus an extra part of a game for Favre), their turnovers were as follows:
Favre: 51 INT, 33 FUM (13 lost) = 64 TOs (1.4 TO/game)
Rodgers: 31 INT, 23 FUM (8 lost) = 38 TOs (0.8 TO/game)
That is a significant difference, regardless of what era they played in. The simple fact is Rodgers protects the football better than Favre did. And you can't say it's because Favre had to throw it downfield more, because he averaged 6.6 ypa, while Rodgers has averaged 7.9 ypa. So not only has Rodgers on averaged thrown it deeper than Favre did, he also protected the ball far better.
And of course the TD passes are no comparison: 86 for Rodgers to 70 for Favre.
I'd be curious to see how the numbers compare with Favre's peak three years. I know his TD passes would be far higher than Rodgers', but I wonder how the yards per attempt would compare.
"Nonstopdrivel" wrote:
I think your analysis you have to account for the fact that one guy got to sit behind a HOFer and learn a system for 3 years, while the other joined that team in that year and started right away. I looked back, really then the whole argument is based on how Favre was not very good in year 1 and year 2 as a starter?
Year 1 - 18 TDs, 13 INTs, 3200 yards
Year 2- 19 TDs, 24 INTs, 3300 yards
And you know whats nuts, at year 1 (1992), Favre was still top 10 in passing yards, QB rating, passing TDs, etc.
Favre's 19 TDs in his "second year" was 5th in the league. If Favre threw 19 TDs, in Rodgers "second year" (2009), then he wouldn't even be top 10, not top 15, he would be 19, behind Jason Campbell?! Thats nuts.
Also:
Passer Rating (1992)
1. Steve Young*+ SFO 107.0
2. Chris Miller ATL 90.7
3. Troy Aikman* DAL 89.5
4. Warren Moon* HOU 89.3
5. Randall Cunningham PHI 87.3
6. Brett Favre* GNB 85.3
7. Dan Marino* MIA 85.1
Passer Rating (2008)
1. Philip Rivers SDG 105.5
2. Chad Pennington MIA 97.4
3. Kurt Warner* ARI 96.9
4. Drew Brees* NOR 96.2
5. Peyton Manning*+ IND 95.0
6. Aaron Rodgers GNB 93.8
I know your saying, you don't care about passer rating but that is interesting to me that they finished at the exact same spot. Kind of random. Also - WOW Young was good.
If you look at year 3, Favre and Rodgers are pretty close.
Year 3 - 33 TDs, 14 INTs, 3800 yards - Favre
Year 3 - 28 TDs, 11 INTs, 3900 yards - Rodgers
I just don't see this leaps and bounds that Rodgers is better than Favre at this point (even if you discount the whole 6th year v 4th year thing). If the whole thing is based on Favre sucked in year 2, then yeah I can see that, but even his first year numbers were all top 10's.