musccy
13 years ago
I understand the intent of this thread, but I disagree.

Had the Packers not received that wake up call vs. Tampa last year, would they have finished 7-1?

Had the Packers beaten Detroit they're 10-5 going into Chicago, that game is for the Division, but then might NO and Phil not pull starters since there'd be jostling for 3-6 seeds? You could extrapolate this to myriad other games throughout the season.

If you don't believe me, trust the Simpsons...skip to 7:51 Homer time travel 
djcubez
13 years ago

I understand the intent of this thread, but I disagree.

Had the Packers not received that wake up call vs. Tampa last year, would they have finished 7-1?

Had the Packers beaten Detroit they're 10-5 going into Chicago, that game is for the Division, but then might NO and Phil not pull starters since there'd be jostling for 3-6 seeds? You could extrapolate this to myriad other games throughout the season.

If you don't believe me, trust the Simpsons...skip to 7:51 Homer time travel 

"musccy" wrote:



But that's the exact point of this thread. That one play can change an entire season. If we don't lose that Tampa game last year everything could have been different which is the essence of the word "change." Sorry to sound like an asshole but you said you disagreed and then pointed out reasons why we make sense lol.
musccy
13 years ago
djcubez,

I just didn't word things properly. I was refuting the argument that if one play is different we can assume that we'd be 12-4, or the #1 seed...which is a conclusion that a lot of people seemed to be drawing.

For example. You could look at the Detroit game. We lost by 4. In the first half Jennings dropped a ball that should have been a TD which would have put us up 7-0 at halftime instead of tied at 0 (I think we were tied). You can't just say, well, that would have given us 7 more points, and we lost by 4...so that means we win!!! No, with 30+minutes to play still, both teams would certainly approach the 2nd half differently than they had.

It's like the butterfly effect...only a lot of posts are assuming that one small thing working in the Packers' favor wouldn't affect anything else for the rest of the season.
djcubez
13 years ago

djcubez,

I just didn't word things properly. I was refuting the argument that if one play is different we can assume that we'd be 12-4, or the #1 seed...which is a conclusion that a lot of people seemed to be drawing.

For example. You could look at the Detroit game. We lost by 4. In the first half Jennings dropped a ball that should have been a TD which would have put us up 7-0 at halftime instead of tied at 0 (I think we were tied). You can't just say, well, that would have given us 7 more points, and we lost by 4...so that means we win!!! No, with 30+minutes to play still, both teams would certainly approach the 2nd half differently than they had.

It's like the butterfly effect...only a lot of posts are assuming that one small thing working in the Packers' favor wouldn't affect anything else for the rest of the season.

"musccy" wrote:



Oh yea I completely agree with you there. There's no way of knowing had Crosby hit that game-winner against Washington that all the other games would have gone the same way they did. It's just sad to think that in all these games we had chances to take the lead on one play and blew them.
blueleopard
13 years ago
This is why we get overcynical in the gameday chats.
Danreb Victorio A Believer of Greg Jennings
RaiderPride
13 years ago
It is like golf (Sort Of)

If a top 70 PGA player made just one more putt per round last year they would have made over a million dollars more. (Or something like that.)

One putt, one play.

This is a very educational thread. Thanks for coming up with it Cali Cheese.
""People Will Probably Never Remember What You Said, And May Never Remember What You Did. However, People Will Always Remember How You Made Them Feel."
13 years ago
I agree with both Cal and Kevin.

I am leaning towards the domino effect having an impact on the face of probability. With the what if game, nano-analysis is almost rendered void because of what has happened beforehand in the field, in this case, the NFL.

We lost so many close games this year, and it's not wrong to say that a single play would have changed the outcome of those games, and in turn our season.

That being said, what new possibilities open up to obscure the line of probability had those single plays worked?

Who knows.

Maybe we might be 9-7. Maybe 14-2.
UserPostedImage 
Zero2Cool is my captain.
Greg C.
13 years ago
This reminds me of those threads where somebody takes away a player's biggest play and recalculates the stats to make him look worse. I don't buy this sort of reasoning at all.

As musccy pointed out, if certain plays had happened differently, the plays (and games) that came later would've happened differently as well. There's a saying that you make your own luck, and that applies here. Also, good teams are better at responding to adversity.

As much as I hate to say it, this Packer team established a pattern of not quite being up to the task most of the time in close games. But at least they did well enough to make the playoffs. It's a whole new season now. I doubt that they will be able to win more than one playoff game in a row with such an inconsistent offense, but it is in their power to do it. Anything can happen.
blank
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
13 years ago
As an economist, it is great to see everyone "thinking at the margin".


/returning to underneath my rock.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
Fan Shout
Mucky Tundra (10h) : Mahomes Magic baby! *cough*
TheKanataThrilla (10h) : KC the luckiest team in the league
Zero2Cool (14h) : Frigging host issues for site again
beast (14h) : For the first time in their long history, the Bears fire their head coach mid-season. Which comes after three very close in-division losses.
Zero2Cool (29-Nov) : At the game now. Kampman and Cullen Jenkins are here.
buckeyepackfan (29-Nov) : Happy Thanksgiving Packer Fans! Gonna celebrate with some grilled Dolphin later!
buckeyepackfan (29-Nov) : Inactive 23 CB Jaire Alexander 56 LB Edgerrin Cooper 62 OL Jacob Monk 87 WR Romeo Doubs
dhazer (29-Nov) : Just a talking point, do we try and trade Jaire next year to get out from the contract as he can't stay healthy
Zero2Cool (28-Nov) : Happy Thanksgiving! About to head to game.
wpr (28-Nov) : Happy Thanksgiving
Martha Careful (28-Nov) : Happy Thanksgiving Everybody...Go Packers!!!
Zero2Cool (28-Nov) : That is what a lot of people seem to think. Even though when he was on Giants, he was trash.
Martha Careful (27-Nov) : Brilliant move by Vikings!!! The signing provide great leverage in Darnold negotiations
Mucky Tundra (27-Nov) : Boo!
Zero2Cool (27-Nov) : Packers have ruled out Jaire Alexander, Edgerrin Cooper, and Romeo Doubs for Thursday's game against the Dolphins.
Zero2Cool (27-Nov) : Daniel Jones joins Vikings
Zero2Cool (27-Nov) : Tomorrow high 32° and low 19°
beast (27-Nov) : Thanks Mucky!
Mucky Tundra (27-Nov) : beast, forecast is looking like 27-28 degrees at kickoff, slight chance of snow flurries
Zero2Cool (27-Nov) : Oh? It wasn't on the injury report. That sucks, but it's what is best.
packerfanoutwest (26-Nov) : Doubs is out due to concussion
beast (26-Nov) : What does the weather look like?
Martha Careful (26-Nov) : You can wear long-johns mittens and a hat. We want Hill and their other skill guys FROZEN
Zero2Cool (26-Nov) : I'm not sure I hope for that. I'll be at the game.
Martha Careful (25-Nov) : I hope it is colder than a well-diggers ass on Thanksgiving night.
Zero2Cool (25-Nov) : doubt he wants to face the speedsters
beast (25-Nov) : Dolphins offense can be explosive... I wonder if we'll have Alexander back
Zero2Cool (25-Nov) : No Doubs could be issue Thursday
Mucky Tundra (25-Nov) : Bears. Santos. Blocked FG
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Bears. Vikings. OT
Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Thems the breaks I guess
Mucky Tundra (24-Nov) : Two players out and Williams had an injury designation this week but Oladapo is a healthy scratch
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : Packers inactives vs 49ers: • CB Jaire Alexander • S Kitan Oladapo • LB Edgerrin Cooper • OL Jacob Monk
TheKanataThrilla (24-Nov) : Aaron Jones with a costly red zone fumble
Zero2Cool (24-Nov) : When we trade Malik for a 1st rounder, we'll need a new QB2.
packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : Report: Aaron Rodgers wants to play in 2025, but not for the Jets
beast (23-Nov) : That's what I told the Police officer about my speed when he pulled me over
packerfanoutwest (23-Nov) : NFL told Bears that Packers’ blocked field goal was legal
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : 49ers are underdogs at Packers, ending streak of 36 straight games as favorites
Zero2Cool (22-Nov) : 49ers might be down their QB, DL, TE and LT?
packerfanoutwest (22-Nov) : Jaire Alexander says he has a torn PCL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : Even with the context it's ... what?
Mucky Tundra (20-Nov) : Matt LaFleur without context: “I don’t wanna pat you on the butt and you poop in my hand.”
beast (20-Nov) : We brought in a former Packers OL coach to help evaluate OL as a scout
beast (20-Nov) : Jets have been pretty good at picking DL
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He landed good players thanks to high draft slot. He isn't good.
Zero2Cool (20-Nov) : He can shove his knowledge up his ass. He knows nothing.
beast (20-Nov) : More knowledge, just like bring in the Jets head coach
Zero2Cool (19-Nov) : What? Why? Huh?
beast (19-Nov) : I wonder if the Packers might to try to bring Douglas in through Milt Hendrickson/Ravens connections
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2024 Packers Schedule
Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
Eagles
Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
Titans
Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
Rams
Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
CARDINALS
Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
Jaguars
Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
Bears
Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
49ERS
Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
DOLPHINS
Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
Seahawks
Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Dec 29 @ 12:00 PM
Vikings
Saturday, Jan 4 @ 11:00 PM
BEARS
Recent Topics
4h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

5h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

5h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

5h / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

14h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

21h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

27-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

26-Nov / Featured Content / Martha Careful

26-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

25-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

25-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / buckeyepackfan

24-Nov / Green Bay Packers Talk / buckeyepackfan

24-Nov / GameDay Threads / Zero2Cool

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2024 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.