musccy
14 years ago
I understand the intent of this thread, but I disagree.

Had the Packers not received that wake up call vs. Tampa last year, would they have finished 7-1?

Had the Packers beaten Detroit they're 10-5 going into Chicago, that game is for the Division, but then might NO and Phil not pull starters since there'd be jostling for 3-6 seeds? You could extrapolate this to myriad other games throughout the season.

If you don't believe me, trust the Simpsons...skip to 7:51 Homer time travel 
djcubez
14 years ago

I understand the intent of this thread, but I disagree.

Had the Packers not received that wake up call vs. Tampa last year, would they have finished 7-1?

Had the Packers beaten Detroit they're 10-5 going into Chicago, that game is for the Division, but then might NO and Phil not pull starters since there'd be jostling for 3-6 seeds? You could extrapolate this to myriad other games throughout the season.

If you don't believe me, trust the Simpsons...skip to 7:51 Homer time travel 

"musccy" wrote:



But that's the exact point of this thread. That one play can change an entire season. If we don't lose that Tampa game last year everything could have been different which is the essence of the word "change." Sorry to sound like an asshole but you said you disagreed and then pointed out reasons why we make sense lol.
musccy
14 years ago
djcubez,

I just didn't word things properly. I was refuting the argument that if one play is different we can assume that we'd be 12-4, or the #1 seed...which is a conclusion that a lot of people seemed to be drawing.

For example. You could look at the Detroit game. We lost by 4. In the first half Jennings dropped a ball that should have been a TD which would have put us up 7-0 at halftime instead of tied at 0 (I think we were tied). You can't just say, well, that would have given us 7 more points, and we lost by 4...so that means we win!!! No, with 30+minutes to play still, both teams would certainly approach the 2nd half differently than they had.

It's like the butterfly effect...only a lot of posts are assuming that one small thing working in the Packers' favor wouldn't affect anything else for the rest of the season.
djcubez
14 years ago

djcubez,

I just didn't word things properly. I was refuting the argument that if one play is different we can assume that we'd be 12-4, or the #1 seed...which is a conclusion that a lot of people seemed to be drawing.

For example. You could look at the Detroit game. We lost by 4. In the first half Jennings dropped a ball that should have been a TD which would have put us up 7-0 at halftime instead of tied at 0 (I think we were tied). You can't just say, well, that would have given us 7 more points, and we lost by 4...so that means we win!!! No, with 30+minutes to play still, both teams would certainly approach the 2nd half differently than they had.

It's like the butterfly effect...only a lot of posts are assuming that one small thing working in the Packers' favor wouldn't affect anything else for the rest of the season.

"musccy" wrote:



Oh yea I completely agree with you there. There's no way of knowing had Crosby hit that game-winner against Washington that all the other games would have gone the same way they did. It's just sad to think that in all these games we had chances to take the lead on one play and blew them.
blueleopard
14 years ago
This is why we get overcynical in the gameday chats.
Danreb Victorio A Believer of Greg Jennings
RaiderPride
14 years ago
It is like golf (Sort Of)

If a top 70 PGA player made just one more putt per round last year they would have made over a million dollars more. (Or something like that.)

One putt, one play.

This is a very educational thread. Thanks for coming up with it Cali Cheese.
""People Will Probably Never Remember What You Said, And May Never Remember What You Did. However, People Will Always Remember How You Made Them Feel."
14 years ago
I agree with both Cal and Kevin.

I am leaning towards the domino effect having an impact on the face of probability. With the what if game, nano-analysis is almost rendered void because of what has happened beforehand in the field, in this case, the NFL.

We lost so many close games this year, and it's not wrong to say that a single play would have changed the outcome of those games, and in turn our season.

That being said, what new possibilities open up to obscure the line of probability had those single plays worked?

Who knows.

Maybe we might be 9-7. Maybe 14-2.
UserPostedImage 
Zero2Cool is my captain.
Greg C.
14 years ago
This reminds me of those threads where somebody takes away a player's biggest play and recalculates the stats to make him look worse. I don't buy this sort of reasoning at all.

As musccy pointed out, if certain plays had happened differently, the plays (and games) that came later would've happened differently as well. There's a saying that you make your own luck, and that applies here. Also, good teams are better at responding to adversity.

As much as I hate to say it, this Packer team established a pattern of not quite being up to the task most of the time in close games. But at least they did well enough to make the playoffs. It's a whole new season now. I doubt that they will be able to win more than one playoff game in a row with such an inconsistent offense, but it is in their power to do it. Anything can happen.
blank
Wade
  • Wade
  • Veteran Member
14 years ago
As an economist, it is great to see everyone "thinking at the margin".


/returning to underneath my rock.
And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is that good and acceptable and perfect will of God.
Romans 12:2 (NKJV)
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