Rushing Impact for the Packers this season.· Page 2

Pack93z
Select Member Topic Starter

14 years ago

#11

Thanks for the info MacBob.. +1 for the detail and I didn't have to do it. 😉

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"

Packers_Finland
Registered

14 years ago

#12

Of course we run the ball when we're ahead more. I really like your analysis and breakdown but the 7-1 compared to 1-5 is just a stupid point to make. It's like that one analyst who says whenever Frank Gore carries the ball 25 times or more, the 49ers win. WELL OF COURSE THEY WIN IF THEY RUN OUT THE CLOCK WITH HIM STUPID! Argh.

That sounded evil. No offense intended or anything. The breakdown is very interesting and a nice piece of research.

Not that I think that running the ball is pointless, or that this isn't a good indicator that a good running game helps. Because that it is.

This is a placeholder

Pack93z
Select Member Topic Starter

14 years ago

#13

"Packers_Finland" wrote:

Okay.. I will try to go through the game and breakdown when the run happened to prove that there wasn't a large bulk in the 4th quarter skewing the numbers.

I am guessing though you already have that data since we all know for a fact that we just ran out the clock in every game and racked up the rushing attempts late. Please share so I don't have to pound through it.. lol.

Why is it no one thinks that we are winning because we established and stuck with the run throughout the game? Apparently no one is looking at Macbob's statistics and analysis above.

I will drop this disclaimer again.. I don't think this is the only reason we won those games is because we ran the ball 20 times. That said, I do believe there is a correlation in why we are ahead and when we ran the ball consistently.

I would love for someone to develop any statistic that is fool proof and compelling past the final score in this sport, including passing.

In such a dynamic team game as this, there is many way to win or lose a game.

The closest statistic would probably be time of possession or turnovers.

"Pack93z" wrote:

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"

Pack93z
Select Member Topic Starter

14 years ago

#14

For the record.. we are 1-0 when we run it exactly 20 times with the Backs. lol. House cleaning on the missing win. ;)

Now for the Qtr by Qtr Breakdown.. we ran the ball 3.39 more times in the 4th quarter in wins vs losses.

So if I remove the "skew" from the 4th Qtr Attempts in win.. we hit 21.83 attempts per game on average.

But for the record.. again this isn't a fool proof stat either.. but I am sure they are meaningless. :)

What I should have done.. is tracked scoring drives verse those that end in a punt.. and see what the run/pass ratio for either.

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"

Pack93z
Select Member Topic Starter

14 years ago

#15

Like any other single aspect stat of this game.. there is a bunch of noise in the data.. just like the pass happy ones. lol.

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"

Pack93z
Select Member Topic Starter

14 years ago

#16

Does the fact that Chicago is 3rd against the run and 18th against the pass soften your stance on this at all, for this particular week?

I'm all for a balanced offence, for the record, so long as it makes sense on a game by game case.

"jdlax" wrote:

Agreed that we should spank them with the pass.. but IMO, running the ball enough does nothing but enhance the passing game.. even if we aren't ramming down their throats.

We didn't have great YPC numbers the past two weeks.. but it is hard to argue with the effect it had upon the defenses.. even a Non Elite QB in Flynn had a very good day will pounding the rock at the opposition.

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"

macbob
Veteran Member

14 years ago

#17

Since ESPN has splits going back to 1993, I'll go back and take a look at our numbers under Holmgren, Rhodes, Sherman, and McCarthy, looking at run/pass ratios when ahead/tied/behind, and by quarter. On a previous quick look, there was little difference between McCarthy and Sherman (which surprised me, because my perception was that Sherman was much more committed to the run than McCarthy).

Obviously, it doesn't take into account the formations run from (e.g., I think McCarthy runs less from an I formation and more draws from a shotgun formation than Sherman did), which may be skewing the perception.

Packers_Finland
Registered

14 years ago

#18

Giants game

8 of our runs came when were within 14 points in the 1st quarter.

1 of our runs came when we were up 14 or more points in the 1st quarter

8 of our runs came when we were within 14 points in the 2nd quarter.

2 of our runs came when we were within 14 points in the 3rd quarter.

3 of our runs came when we were up 14 points or more in the 3rd quarter.

11 of our runs came when we were up 14 points or more in the 4th quarter.

Analysis: Excluding QB runs, we had 33 carries in the game. Don't know where you got the 45 carries in the OP. Rodgers carried the ball twice.

15 carries with a safe lead. 18 when the game was close.

We had a safe lead for 25 minutes, and the game was close (within 2 TDs) for 35 minutes.

Conclusion: While we had a lot of garbage carries, it's safe to say that running early helped us out later in the game. This game supports your theory. I'll analyze more of our games later to see if they contain similar results.

This is a placeholder

Porforis
Veteran Member

14 years ago

#19

When were losing in a game we pass more. When we have the lead late we tend to run 5-10 times more in a game. I think these two factors skew the stats a bit.

"djcubez" wrote:

That. Wish I would have gotten to this topic earlier, first thing that popped into my mind is "If we're behind 2 scores we need to pass more, if we're up 2 scores we can run it all day long. This also probably means their defense is tired from us mopping the floor with their asses."

Pack93z
Select Member Topic Starter

14 years ago

#20

Analysis: Excluding QB runs, we had 33 carries in the game. Don't know where you got the 45 carries in the OP. Rodgers carried the ball twice.

"Packers_Finland" wrote:

Are you looking at the score? GB = Our Score. Opp. Their Score. ;)

Second to last column on the right hand side.. 33 carries.. validated with the second breakdown..

"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"

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