Green Bay Packers at 04:12
1-10-GB 35 (4:12) 30-J.Kuhn left guard to GB 37 for 2 yards (52-D.Harris, 91-S.Pouha).
Timeout #1 by NYJ at 04:08.
2-8-GB 37 (4:08) 32-B.Jackson right end to GB 35 for -2 yards (22-B.Pool, 57-B.Scott).
Timeout #2 by NYJ at 04:03.
3-10-GB 35 (4:03) 32-B.Jackson right end to GB 36 for 1 yard (97-C.Pace).
Timeout #3 by NYJ at 03:59.
4-9-GB 36 (3:57) 8-T.Masthay punts 41 yards to NYJ 23, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.
New York Jets at 03:50
So lets say 4:12 - 3:32. 3:32 - 2:58. Then call a timeout. You'd have the ball back with lets say 2:50 with 2 timeouts. Then lets say you run 3 pass plays and miss (7 seconds each), you could punt it with 2:29 or whatever and have 2 timeouts and the 2 minute warning, still only being down by 6.
And that assumes that the Packers still run on 3rd down (as I would guess that the Packers may choose to just throw on 3rd down as the Jets were not burning timeouts).
I just don't see the upside between having the ball with 2:50 with 2 timeouts versus having the ball with 3:50 with no timeouts. By using all your timeouts at 4:00, you are conceding that this will be your last drive either way. So why not just save the timeouts and see what happens.
Also lets say its 3rd and 8 with 2:58 left and you then use your first timeout. Then lets say the Packers convert. Then you still have a chance to 2:58-2:54 (2nd timeout), 2:54-2:50 (3rd timeout), 2:50-2:10, then get the ball back. The saving timeout strategy also would have given your team leeway if the Packers convert (which didn't happen here but still).
Also I thought horrible 3rd down call on the 2nd last drive. Why go for hte endzone, why not run a screen or even a run to make a shorter 4th down situation as you are in 4th down territory. I was confused by Rex Ryan.
"RedSoxExcel" wrote:
Much thanks for the breakdown. I see where you are coming from, and maybe that would've been a better strategy, but I just don't think it would've made much difference, if any. Also, you are putting your thumb on the scales by failing to account for four or five seconds of runoff for each play. Plus, when you go from 3:32 to 2:58 that is a 34-second play clock rather than 40 (though 39 is more realistic, with the ball being snapped one second before the play clock expires).
So using your strategy, it would really look more like this:
Packers with the ball at 4:12, first down, run play to 4:08 and clock keeps running. Snap the ball at around 3:29 on second down. Next play runs the clock down to 3:24, then the clock goes down to 2:45 before the third down snap. This play takes four more seconds, to 2:41, then the Jets call timeout. If the punt play takes nine seconds, as it did in the game, the Jets get the ball back with 2:32 on the clock instead of 2:50.
Now, if they happen to run three nice, quick incompletions right off the bat, followed by a punt, they may turn the ball over to the Packers before the two minute warning, so they can use that clock stoppage plus the two timeouts to get the ball back with around 1:50 remaining. Then your strategy works. But if there is a sack or a tackle in bounds, or even one or two incompletions where the QB has to run around and chew up a lot of time, the Packers will get the ball back after the two minute warning. Then they will run an extra 39 seconds off the clock (because the Jets have only two timeouts), plus three plays that total around 13 seconds, and with another nine-second punt play, you're looking at the Jets getting the ball back with AT BEST something like 49 seconds left with no time outs, needing to score a TD. Most likely the best they're going to get out of that is a Hail Mary pass into the end zone.
So in this scenario, which is quite likely, you get your second possession, but it is a very poor scoring opportunity, especially for an offense that has done almost nothing all day long.
I think Rex's idea was to get one possession with plenty of time. This would allow them to run more plays to try getting the TD. If he had the Colts offense with Peyton Manning, maybe he would've employed your strategy.
My head hurts now.