It's was fun to look into a crystal ball and predict the future, especially in the height of summer trying to figure out which team has a Super Bowl feel to it.
The Packers this summer looked super, and I had them going to the big game. Since then, though, their vaunted offense has not been as dazzling as I thought, and their defense -- which was suspect even in the summer -- has been more suspect than I once thought.
So what happened? Some might say injuries, yet even when the Packers were completely healthy their offense was not zooming along.
The first noticeable weakness in the Packers' offense is their lack of a power runner, a back who can break tackles and make those tough yards and make an opposing defense respect the run -- if even a little. The Saints, who were devastated with injuries in their backfield, found Chris Ivory to add to their already talented team. Meanwhile, the Packers placed their hopes in Brandon Jackson, who has yet to prove he is more than just a nickel runner operating best when the formation is spread.
No one watching the Packers on tape respects their running game, therefore the burden of offensive success falls squarely onto the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers. They rank 27th in rushes and completions combine, averaging slightly over 43. Part of the problem why Green Bay isn't ranked higher in this area are the drops, as the Packers average almost eight dropped passes a game, ranking 18th in the league. Last year the Packers offense averaged almost 49 rushes and completions ranking seventh in the league, and although there is only a five-play decline from a year ago, this is significant.
Losing Ryan Grant did hurt this team, and their reluctance to supplement their running game with another back affects their production. John Kuhn runs hard, but he he looks more like a West Coast fullback.
The most glaring weakness with the Packers' passing game besides the dropped passes is their inability to gain yards after the catch. There was a time when their wide receivers were the best in yards after the catch, but now they rank 18th in the NFL. They still make big plays, having 21 pass plays of more than 20 yards -- with four touchdowns -- ranking fourth, but the inability to break tackles and make the extra yards is hurting the Packers.
Unlock HQ Video HQ video delivered by Akamai
Which then leads to their defense, because even though the offense is not as explosive as it appeared this summer, they still rank second in the league in first-half point differential (plus 33), tied for second with Pittsburgh. Yet their defense can't seem to ever get control of the game, or increase the lead, making the one key play that can put the game away. In fact, they allow the fifth most points in the fourth quarter.
This Sunday against the Brett Favre-led Vikings, the Packers can't drop passes, they need to find a running game, and when they get the lead, put the game away with their ability to scheme and put pressure with their defense. That is the formula they need to be successful and for them to be SUPER.