For 45 minutes each week, the Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL. Unfortunately, for the Packers football games are 60 minutes long.
The Packers have been tied or led in the fourth quarters of all six of their games this year. But opponents have outscored them 52-24 in the fourth quarter and overtime, handing the Packers three losses by field goals, two of them in overtime. When the Packers arent losing tight games in the final period, they are letting the Eagles and Lions get back into the game, turning what should have been blowouts into nail-biters. No lead is safe for the Packers, especially with Brett Favre and Randy Moss in town on Sunday night.
Many people think injuries are the Packers main problem, but they're no more banged-up than other teams. They have bigger issues. Heres a breakdown of the the Packers' issues and the ways the Vikings can exploit those late-game mistakes:
No rushing consistency
Green Bay's running game looks good enough on paper: 101.8 yards per game, 16th in the NFL. But 113 of the 611 rushing yards are from Aaron Rodgers scrambles and sneaks, and 71 more of them came on one Brandon Jackson run. Trim the fat, and the Packers average just 71.2 yards per game and 3.8 yards per rush.
The Packers rushing woes have been especially pronounced in the fourth quarter, when their backs have rushed 32 times for 102 yards (3.4 yards per carry) with just four first downs and a fumble. With Ryan Grant injured, plodders Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn have tried to carry the load, but neither has been effective at chewing up the clock. The Packers best fourth quarter runner -- by a landslide -- has been Rodgers, with seven carries for 73 yards and two touchdowns on scrambles and sneaks. Ideally, you dont want your quarterback to be your leading fourth-quarter rusher.
The Vikings can capitalize because ...
Minnesota's run defense is better than the numbers: 102.2 yards per game, 3.8 yards per rush, and two touchdowns are darn good figures after facing hard-running opponents like the Jets and Dolphins. The Pat Williams-Kevin Williams-E.J. Henderson interior defense is playing as well as ever. Once the Vikings stymie the Packers running game, theyll be able to exploit problem number two.
Strange play calls
Aaron Rodgers has dropped back to pass 23 times in the fourth quarter with the Packers leading. The running backs only have 21 carries in the same circumstances. Balance is all well and good, but youre not supposed to be balanced while winning in the fourth quarter. Youre supposed to be eating the clock.
It gets worse -- the Packers ran 15 plays from the shotgun while leading in the fourth quarter, turning in 12 passes, one handoff, one Rodgers draw, and one Rodgers scramble. The Packers use a shotgun-heavy offense, but cmon coach, were trying to put the Redskins away, here. Lets get Rodgers under center, where hes in better position to hand off.
Rodgers has thrown two interceptions and been sacked twice while trying to ice leads. In one ugly sequence against the Redskins, he was sacked on first down, completed a screen that lost a yard on second down and threw a five-yard pass on 3rd-and-13, all while nursing a three-point lead. An interception on a 1st-and-10 bomb to start the fourth quarter nearly sparked a Lions comeback. Keep handing the ball back to your opponent late in the game, and bad things will happen.
The Vikings can capitalize because ...
Minnesota allows just 9.1 yards per reception, and three of their four interceptions took place in the fourth quarters of its two wins. Passing on the Vikings late in the game is more likely to produce a mistake than a big play.
The disappearing pass rush
While the Packers' offense has gone one-dimensional in the fourth quarter, their pass rush has disappeared. The Packers have 21 sacks for the season, but theyve recorded just one fourth-quarter and one overtime sack in the last five games. Theyve recorded just two third quarter sacks for the whole season.
The lack of pressure made comebacks too easy for opposing quarterbacks. Jay Cutler was sacked three times in the first half by the Packers, then got through the rest of a close game unscathed. Shaun Hill was dumped three times in two quarters, but the Packers then let him pick them apart from a clean pocket. Donovan McNabb endured three sacks through three quarters, then had time in the fourth quarter to erase a 10-point deficit and force overtime.
The Packers must re-think their late-game defense as well as their offense. They have to keep the pressure on with Clay Matthews and their crazy blitzes, even when protecting a lead, because sitting back in zones and watching the clock tick isnt working.
The Vikings can capitalize because ...
While Brett Favre has been sacked 13 times this season, he can still carve up a defense that has eased off (see the Jets game for evidence). You want to give him time to throw so he can generate a bunch of triumphant return headlines? Didnt think so.
General sloppiness
The Packers committed four penalties in the fourth quarter against the Bears, including roughing the passer and pass interference fouls that erased Packers interceptions. (Yes, the fouls helped cause the interceptions, but you get the idea -- sloppiness).
They committed two defensive penalties in overtime to put the Redskins in field goal range. An illegal formation foul erased a punt and led to a fourth-quarter Dolphins touchdown. The Lions stayed with the Packers thanks to a facemask penalty, a fumbled kickoff, and other lapses of discipline. From dumb penalties to coverage lapses, the Packers have a gift for making mistakes at the worst possible times.
The Vikings can capitalize because ...
The Vikings were outgained Sunday 314-188 by the Cowboys. They won because of a Percy Harvin kickoff return touchdown and 91 yards of Cowboys penalties, including an offensive pass interference foul to nullify a Cowboys touchdown and a DPI flag that helped the Vikings kill the clock. If anyone can draw a flag on a borderline roughing-the-passer call, its Favre. The Vikings had to muck out a win on penalties and turnovers. Why not make it two in a row?