Green Bay - Ted Thompson's instincts told him just to say "no" on Tuesday with the National Football League trading deadline minutes away and the Kansas City Chiefs demanding a second-round draft choice for 32-year-old tight end Tony Gonzalez.
If 25 years of NFL history mean much, the general manager of the Green Bay Packers made the right call by holding the line on his offer of a third-round choice.
Since 1984, a total of 21 veteran players have been traded in transactions involving a third-round draft choice or higher at or within a few days of the trading deadline in mid- to early October.
In analyzing each trade, a common standard was established for the value of a third-, second- and first-round pick. What the teams receiving the selections actually did with them wasn't considered.
By subjective judgment, the teams getting the player were given the edge in four of the trades and the teams getting the pick or picks were given the edge in 17 of the trades.
If there was a bias in these judgments, it probably was toward the picks. The common denominators for teams acquiring a player was the hope that hed be the final piece in a Super Bowl puzzle or would plug a need created by injury.
Only two of those 21 players ever played in a Super Bowl for their new team. And only one ever made the Pro Bowl for his new team.
Before we turn the page on the Packers bid for Gonzalez, heres a look back at those 21 trades:
[ul]2008: WR Roy Williams (26 years old) for first-round (D1), third-round (D3) and sixth-round picks (D6), Detroit to Dallas. The Lions still have to make these picks count but at least now they have a chance to get better. This was their best personnel move in a decade. Williams underachieved in Detroit and isnt apt to fare much better in Dallas. Edge: Picks.
2007: WR Chris Chambers (29) for D2, Miami to San Diego. Without Chambers, the Chargers never would have gotten to the AFC title game. Edge: Player.
2006: DT Anthony McFarland (28) for D2, Tampa Bay to Indianapolis. Desperate to cure his ailing run defense, Bill Polian acquired a run-stopper with the quickness to fit Tony Dungys scheme. It took awhile for McFarland to round into shape, but during the Colts Super Bowl run he played pretty well. Then he suffered a season-ending knee injury in 07 training camp and appears done. Edge: Pick.
2004: WR Keenan McCardell (34) for D3 and D6, Tampa Bay to San Diego. The aging but crafty McCardell started for 2 1/2 seasons and did put up big numbers in 05 (70 catches, nine TDs). But in reality, he was just filling a uniform. Edge: Picks.
2004: CB Mike McKenzie (27) for D2, Green Bay to New Orleans. McKenzie couldnt stand Mike Sherman, held out for 46 days before reporting to get paid, then agitated his way out of town. McKenzie hasnt been a great player in New Orleans but he has started almost every game for what had been an awful secondary. Edge: Player.
1992: DT Reuben Davis (27) for D3, Tampa Bay to Phoenix. A massive run-stuffer, Davis was acquired to fit coordinator Fritz Shurmurs defense. Davis started for 1 1/2 seasons on losing teams before leaving as an unrestricted free agent. It would be 12 years before another big October deal would be made. Edge: Pick.
1991: T Harvey Salem (30) for D3, Detroit to Denver. The oft-injured Salem held out of the Lions training camp before Chuck Schmidt and Wayne Fontes made the deal with Dan Reeves. Salem played on some passing downs down the stretch in 91 before he finished with Green Bay in 92. Edge: Pick.
1991: DE-LB Tim Harris (27) for two D2s, Green Bay to San Francisco. Harris held out for 78 days, missing five games. In 92, he finished second in the NFC with 17 sacks, and had two more in the playoffs as the 49ers ended up losing in the title game to Dallas. He left for Philadelphia as unrestricted free agent in 93. Edge: Picks.
1989: RB Herschel Walker (27) for three D1s, three D2s, one D3 and five players, Dallas to Minnesota. Upon making the deal, Vikings GM Mike Lynn said it would be a failure if the Vikings didnt make the Super Bowl within two years. Minnesota was smashed by the 49ers in the 89 divisional playoffs, went 6-10 in 90 and then 8-8 in 91. Walker, who was cut in May 1992, carried 551 times in 42 games for 2,264 yards, a 4.1-yard average and 20 TDs. Jerry Jones and the Cowboys turned Lynns folly into the foundation for three Super Bowls. Edge: Picks.
1989: QB Steve Pelluer (27) for D3 and D4, Dallas to Kansas City. Pelluer was holding out when the trade was consummated. He hurt his knee in his third start in 89, then found himself buried behind Steve DeBerg. Edge: Picks.
1989: RB Darrin Nelson (30) and D6 for D2, D5 and D6, Dallas to San Diego. As part of the Walker trade, Nelson refused to report to Dallas. So Jones shipped him to GM Steve Ortmayer and the Chargers, where he rushed for 211 yards and caught 35 passes in 1 1/2 seasons. Edge: Picks.
1989: LB Chip Banks (30) for D3, San Diego to Indianapolis. A four-time Pro Bowl player for Cleveland, Banks had drug problems and was traded to the Chargers. After one year, Ortmayer dealt him to Indy, where he started for three seasons but didnt play well. Edge: Pick.
1988: G Ron Solt (26) for D1 and D4, Indianapolis to Philadelphia. Solt made the Pro Bowl in 87 but, shortly after being acquired by Buddy Ryan, suffered a major knee injury. He did start from 1989-91 but was a shell of his old self. Edge: Picks.
1987: RB Eric Dickerson (26) for LB Cornelius Bennett, D1 and two D2s, L.A. Rams to Indianapolis. This was an enormous three-way deal involving Buffalo, with the Bills acquiring Bennett, a first-round rookie holdout. Dickerson had been totally disruptive in L.A., forcing John Robinsons hand. Dickerson made the Pro Bowl three times in Indy, finishing with 5,194 yards and 32 TDs in five seasons before being dealt to the Raiders for D4 and D8. Edge: Player.
1987: RB Greg Bell (25) for six high picks, Buffalo to L.A. Rams. The Rams got the worst of the three-way deal. Bell was deserving of the Pro Bowl in 88 (1,212 yards, 16 TDs), and gained 1,137 yards in 89 as well. But when the Rams signed Curt Warner in 90, Bells career was all but over. Edge: Picks.
1987: T Bruce Davis (31) for D2, L.A. Raiders to Houston. Fat and out of shape, Davis did have a strong year at LT in 88. He at least started in 89, his final season. Edge: Pick.
1986: QB Doug Flutie (23) and D4 for D3 and D6, L.A. Rams to Chicago. Flutie started one game in 86 and the playoff debacle against Washington, when his passer rating was 35.5. Edge: Picks.
1986: RB Ottis Anderson (29) for D2 and D7, St. Louis to New York Giants. After two Pro Bowl seasons for the Cardinals, he was an anonymous caddy for Joe Morris for 2 1/2 seasons and his career seemed all but over. Then, after gaining 1,023 yards in 89, he was Super Bowl MVP in 90. Edge: Player.
1985: LB Hugh Green (26) for D1 and D2, Tampa Bay to Miami. A series of knee injuries ruined his seven-year stint in Miami after two Pro Bowl seasons for the Bucs. Edge: Picks.
1984: RB Earl Campbell (29) for D1, Houston to New Orleans. Bum Phillips, who rode Campbell in Houston, reacquired him and then traded George Rogers in August 1985. Campbell, a Pro Bowl pick as late in 83, played 24 games for the Saints (833 yards, one TD) before retiring with battered knees. Edge: Pick.
1984: C John Romano (25) for D3 and D6, L.A. Raiders to Houston. Ladd Herzeg and Mike Holovak got 32 starts from Romano from 1984-86 before knee problems ended his career. Edge: Picks.[/ul]
Arguments can be made for and against the decision made by Thompson, but in the end the litmus test on parting with a second-round pick should be whether Gonzalez could have delivered a Super Bowl within a year or two.
Based on best available information, the answer is probably not.
For what Gonzalez might have meant for coach Mike McCarthys offense, check out Indianapolis tight end Dallas Clark this afternoon at Lambeau Field. Clark is 3 1/2 years younger than Gonzalez and even now isnt as good, but with his speed, route running and hands he is able to line up all over the formation and create matchup problems for just about any defense.
Nevertheless, the Packers arent bad at tight end as it stands now. Donald Lee is reliable, and Jermichael Finley seems to be a more stable individual than he was billed as coming out of Texas two years early. He might be the answer in another year or two, and Thompson would like to give his third-round investment a chance to prosper.
One longtime personnel man defined a second-round pick as an above-average starter with the talent to make the Pro Bowl. In reality, thats wishful thinking. The success rate in the round is much worse.
Go back a decade to the 1998 draft. Six of the 31 picks in the second round did make the Pro Bowl, but the same number also could be categorized as busts.
Or break down the 32 players drafted by Green Bay in the second round since the common draft began in 1967. From the group, only three made the Pro Bowl (Chester Marcol, LeRoy Butler, Darren Sharper) and just five others became above-average starters (Greg Koch, Mark Lee, Johnny Holland, Chad Clifton, Greg Jennings). Nick Collins is rapidly becoming a sixth.
Thompsons painstaking approach to team-building has been called prudent by some, passive by others.
All things considered, give him the slim benefit of the doubt on Gonzalez.