I was counting games last season as well.
So far I've predicted all the games to be close. The Bills game was close . . . until the third quarter, when the Packers blew the lid off. After that I looked kind of foolish. ;)
Do we know for sure that Jahvid Best is out? If so, I think the Lions' passing game will look fairly impotent.
But you never know. The Packers have an odd way of making mediocre quarterbacks look amazing for a week.