gakko
14 years ago
I read something very interesting and enlightening about this kid over at packerrats.com:

Initially, I was thinking "huh" and "this is a reach" and "this isn't a position of need" in response to the pick. But I try not to be particularly emotional about these things (at least half of all picks won't work out, no matter where they're drafted or at what position, and after thinking about it I think I understand it better and better. I'm not saying I love the pick, I'm just saying I understand it and I'm convinced it's not a terrible pick.

First of all, let's look at some of Ted's tendencies. Ted tends to value the following things a lot in draft prospects (in no particular order):
1) Size
2) Functional athleticism (relative to position).
3) Leadership
4) Work Ethic.
5) Stepped up performance against elite competition (inc. performing well in college all-star games).

When evaluated from this perspective, the Neal pick is perfectly predictable. I didn't have him on my radar before the draft (I honestly didn't pay that much attention to Purdue), but in retrospect it seems like a slam dunk for Ted's tendencies. First of all, he's 6-4 295 with 33" arms, which is both large and somewhat ideal size for playing his position in the defense (5-technique). He's also immensely strong with great burst, putting up 31 reps at the combine, and having a 1.60 second 10-yard split, better than some of the pure pass rushers; strength and burst are probably the most important measurables for the trenches. He was a team captain at Purdue. He was a weight room junkie, having bench pressed 500+ several times in his career. He also performed very well in both the East-West Shrine Game and the Senior Bowl practices. So you can really tick the box next to almost all of Ted's favorite things.

If you go around and read a lot of the draft analysts who aren't professional scouts you will get things like: "Motor runs hot and cold", "Stamina is an issue", "There are questions about his consistency, that he takes plays off. Conditioning has been poor.", "stands around too much when the play gets away from him". However, to me, this smacks of guys who watch tape, but don't really watch whole games. Certainly, he's guilty of some of these things, but the mitigating factor is that in the Purdue defense, they never rotated him out. Which lead to him playing 70-80 snaps a game. There's not a defensive tackle in the NFL who could play 70-80 snaps without "taking plays off" or "having an inconsistent motor." 300 pound bodies just can't go at 100% for an entire game, which is why teams rotate their defensive linemen. This is something that you would notice if you watched an entire game, but not something you'll see from just watching tape on a prospect. So don't trust any accounts of "laziness" or "inconsistent motor". The knocks on him about "doesn't have a counter" are accurate, but this is something that can be corrected by coaching. No college player is perfect after all.

Also, looking at positional value, mid second round is a reasonable place to get 5-technique defensive linemen. It's about where Igor Olshansky was drafted, and Neal compares positively to Olshansky coming out of college.

So not a perfect pick, but not necessarily a bad one. It's a pick that's worthy of giving the benefit of the doubt because there's not an NFL front office that doesn't do a more in-depth job scouting college prospects than whoever your favorite draft analyst is. Even the very good ones (Mike Mayock, Wes Bunting, etc.) don't have nearly the knowledge base that teams do. When teams scout, they have regional scouts that live in the area, attend as many games and practices as they can, and speak to coaches when convenient. Any scout who is simply assigned to the players in a relatively small region, is going to do a better job with the prospects of that region than any national analyst. There's simply too much football for any one man to watch all of it.

Lurker64 wrote:


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ILikeThePackers39
14 years ago
I like the pick. I don't like the fallout. I'm a bit confused as to why you wouldn't just take the safety here instead of having to burn a 4th to get him, when I'd guess this guy would have been there in the 3rd.

I'm hoping it turns out that another team wanted him too - that would make more sense.
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nerdmann
14 years ago
Gakko's right. It's not that the dude is "taking plays off," he's just out there the whole game, and he tends to wear down at times. That's what the Packers personnel guy said anyway.
A classic Ted Thompson surprise pick.
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Mckennj3
14 years ago
After doing alot of research I kind of like the pick. Gives good insurance if either Jenkins or Jolly move on next year, plus the kid could pack one hell of a punch if he's only playing when he's fresh.
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zombieslayer
14 years ago

I just feel bad for Dhazer that we passed on Golden Tate too.


Jolly, Pickett, Jenkins with Raji and "the Hammer" Neal; sounds like some pretty nice rotation. I wonder if Bustin is ever going to get out of the tub?

Barnett, Hawk, and Chiller should be pretty happy about that rotation.

"DakotaT" wrote:



That's the thing. With the DL doing their job, you'll all see I've been right all along about Nick Barnett. I've always been a Barnett fan but saw he was overwhelmed at times, where it wasn't his fault.

I'm happy about this pick.
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Kingkoopa
14 years ago
When I first heard this pick I was furious. Mike Neal? Are you kidding me? There seemed to be better players on the board. But then I got to thinking about it. This guy seems like a great pick for us, and the more I read about him the more I like. He is a ridiculously strong DT/DE(I think he did more reps than anyone else at his position) and he commanded double teams all year. I think he can command double teams right away the way Justin Harrell did when he first hit the field.

There was a lot of talk about him taking plays off, which got me pissed. However, I read that he played every single snap, which made me laugh, because of course he was taking plays off. He was fatigued, not unmotivated like the pundits made it seem. He will be a situational player here so we don't have to worry about that. Besides I like his attitude as he didn't make excuses for the fatigue problem and said he has to get in better shape. I'm looking forward to seeing him and Raji together as both are good pass rushing DTs. I think Capers and co will find a way to put them on the field together, and I think teams will have their hands full with him and Raji deciding who they want to double.
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Packers_Finland
14 years ago

When I first heard this pick I was furious. Mike Neal? Are you kidding me? There seemed to be better players on the board. But then I got to thinking about it. This guy seems like a great pick for us, and the more I read about him the more I like. He is a ridiculously strong DT/DE(I think he did more reps than anyone else at his position) and he commanded double teams all year. I think he can command double teams right away the way Justin Harrell did when he first hit the field.

"Kingkoopa" wrote:



Jeff Owens had the most reps at the DT position IIRC.
This is a placeholder
zombieslayer
14 years ago
But Koopa mentioned that Neal played both DE/DT. That's a big plus in MM's book as MM loves versatility.
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2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
Rockmolder
14 years ago

But Koopa mentioned that Neal played both DE/DT. That's a big plus in Mike McCarthy's book as Mike McCarthy loves versatility.

"zombieslayer" wrote:



I like that, as well.

He won't play multiple positions for us, though. He'll strictly be a 3-4 DE. He doesn't have the bulk to play 0 technique and he's overweigth and not fluid enough to play OLB.

I think that, if we do see something out of him in his first year, it'll be as a nickel DT. We had Jolly and Jenkins out there in the 2-4-5 package most of the time. I could see Jolly being beaten out by Neal, even as early as his rookie year, in that package.
Dulak
14 years ago

But Koopa mentioned that Neal played both DE/DT. That's a big plus in Mike McCarthy's book as Mike McCarthy loves versatility.

"Rockmolder" wrote:



I like that, as well.

He won't play multiple positions for us, though. He'll strictly be a 3-4 DE. He doesn't have the bulk to play 0 technique and he's overweigth and not fluid enough to play OLB.

I think that, if we do see something out of him in his first year, it'll be as a nickel DT. We had Jolly and Jenkins out there in the 2-4-5 package most of the time. I could see Jolly being beaten out by Neal, even as early as his rookie year, in that package.

"zombieslayer" wrote:



I think we were talking about last week the roethlisberger (damn hard name to spell) pass play and how we rushed 3 and one of the was wynn.
To be honest I dont remember seeing wynn do much this season and IMO he is too light and doesnt have the power for our 3-4.

Im thinking neal can do very well in a rush package even with just rushing 3. I think I remember seeing tampa bay (ya I know that game ... but hey it motivated us to win a bunch of games) where they rushed 3 and rodgers took the sack; so it can be done.

Point is - I like this pick and hope he can bench press some of these opposing OLine men right into their own QB.
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