These algorithms are inherently conservative, of course, since they're intended to induce a 50/50 split in the betting:
In the NFC North, Minnesota’s over/under is 9.5 wins, followed by Chicago (8) and Detroit (6.5). San Francisco (10.5) leads the NFC and is followed by Philadelphia (10) and New Orleans (10). Kansas City, which beat San Francisco in last week’s Super Bowl, has a league-best over/under of 11.5 wins.
I think the Packers benefited from playing some powerful opponents when they were hampered by injury, and they fell flat on their face against teams like the Chargers. Ten wins strikes me as an entirely reasonable expectation for next year, depending on what kind of infusion of talent they find in the draft.