Packers’ Win Total Predicted to Tumble 
Bill Huber

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers had a huge bounce-back season after a pair of down years, with first-year coach Matt LaFleur guiding the team to a 13-3 record.

Could the Packers tumble back to earth? Yes, at least according to BetOnline.ag, which put the over/under on 9.5 wins for the 2020 season.

On one hand, a reversal of fortunes seems quite possible. After all, the Packers enjoyed unusually good health and faced a scheduled that turned out to be weaker than expected. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers isn’t getting any younger or less expensive. The Packers were outgained on the season. Yardage might not mean much on a game-to-game basis but it can show the overall strength or weakness of a team over the duration of the season.

On the other hand, this will be Rodgers’ second year running LaFleur’s scheme, which should help the offense hit the ground running. After an offseason focused on fixing the defense, general manager Brian Gutekunst can turn his attention to fixing the offense. A superb group of receivers will be available in the draft to give the offense a much-needed infusion of talent. In the first three rounds of the last five drafts, the Packers have taken only one skill-position on offense: tight end Jace Sternberger in the third round last year.

These algorithms are inherently conservative, of course, since they're intended to induce a 50/50 split in the betting:

In the NFC North, Minnesota’s over/under is 9.5 wins, followed by Chicago (8) and Detroit (6.5). San Francisco (10.5) leads the NFC and is followed by Philadelphia (10) and New Orleans (10). Kansas City, which beat San Francisco in last week’s Super Bowl, has a league-best over/under of 11.5 wins.

I think the Packers benefited from playing some powerful opponents when they were hampered by injury, and they fell flat on their face against teams like the Chargers. Ten wins strikes me as an entirely reasonable expectation for next year, depending on what kind of infusion of talent they find in the draft.

I bet the prediction last year for 2019 wasn't accurate.