zombieslayer
13 years ago
Rodgers > Elway. Elway threw too many INTs in big games. Aaron doesn't do that s***.

Now, we've had this argument before. IF our WRs actually caught the damn ball, that game would be a blowout. Yes, a complete blowout. That game shouldn't have been close at all.

The one game that mattered most, we didn't run the ball much. One could even say "we abandoned the run in the SB."
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macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
13 years ago

One more thing. I know you don't want to hear this but it's been said a few times now by others. The reason why rushing attempts are up there for teams who win is because when you got the lead, you want to burn off the clock. Rushing burns off the clock more than passing. So of course teams that have the lead are going to run the ball more and to someone who is just looking at the stats and not watching the game, it looks like rushing attempts helps you win. It doesn't. It's the other way around. Winning helps your rushing attempts.

"macbob" wrote:



Zombie-we had this discussion in the fall. I pulled out the stats using ESPN's splits on when a team was ahead, behind, and tied with the other teams. The analysis was part of a comparison of McCarthy, Sherman, and Holmgren's play calling.

The impact that your describing is not nearly what you seem to think it is. All three coaches basically ran just as much when tied with the opponent as ahead. The major difference was when losing all three coaches' passing percentage shot up from in the upper 50s to over 70 percent.

I also did an analysis of running in the 1sr/2nd/3rd/4th qtr. If what you're saying is accurate, I'd expect the 4th quarter running #s to be significantly higher than the other quarters, and they weren't. 1st and 3rd qtr rush attempts were similar, 2nd qtr were two less and 4th qtr were 2 more than 1st & 3rd qtrs. It wasn't this big stat-skewing number like you imply.

"zombieslayer" wrote:



OK, I went back to confirm my recollection. I used ESPN's split data, which goes back to 1993, and took the Packers' rushing attempts per quarter over those years. That's basically a fairly successful period of time, with Holmgren/Sherman and now McCarthy, and the running more to run out the clock would show up here if anywhere.

Here's how the data worked out:

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	OT
2010	100	85	101	133	2
2009	111	95	86	146	
2008	112	113	101	111	
2007	84	100	88	116	
2006	107	95	111	118	
2005	109	116	91	76	6
2004	112	116	106	107	
2003	126	128	102	150	1
2002	102	120	96	125	8
2001	93	100	108	109	
2000	109	103	92	89	11
1999	73	115	103	95	
1998	109	93	104	141	
1997	87	96	113	163	
1996	97	84	125	158	1
1995	117	89	91	113	
1994	123	99	86	109	
1993	126	93	103	126	
					
Total	1897	1840	1807	2185	29
%	0.24	0.24	0.23	0.28	0.00
					
Runs	6.59	6.39	6.27	7.59	0.1
/qtr

Over the 18 years, we had 7758 rushing attempts. We ran the ball very evenly across the first 3 quarters. The 4th quarter the runs spiked up by around 300 attempts. So, there is validity to the argument that coaches run more at the end of the game to run out the clock.

The statistical impact, though, was extremely small. Keep in mind that the 300 carries was spread out over 288 games. Averaged out, the 4th quarter at 7.59 carries per game averaged only 1 carry more per game than the first three quarters.

So, my takeaways:

An interesting stat to me was that we averaged just short of 27 carries per game (26.94) over the period. So much for the "in the WCO the short pass replaces the run" argument. These run totals are consistent with the 49ers #s through their heyday.

The impact from running out the clock is greatly overstated and had minescule impact on the overall stats, which discounts the argument that rush attempts are up because a winning team is running more to run out the clock.
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Zero2Cool
13 years ago

Rodgers > Elway. Elway threw too many INTs in big games. Aaron doesn't do that s***.

Now, we've had this argument before. IF our WRs actually caught the damn ball, that game would be a blowout. Yes, a complete blowout. That game shouldn't have been close at all.

The one game that mattered most, we didn't run the ball much. One could even say "we abandoned the run in the SB."

"zombieslayer" wrote:



I believe Edgar Bennett will have a positive impact on the WR catching and holding onto the ball. As a rookie he fumbled and then was benched. From that point on, he was very sure handed both catching and not fumbling.
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Dexter_Sinister
13 years ago

But here's the catch Macbob - often you have OLs made for running or ones made for passing. Rarely OLs are good at both. Do you really want a better OL at running if it might be worse at passing (protecting Aaron)?

Careful what you wish for.

Now, I do stand by my statement that rushing success is irrelevant. Heck, especially with this team. We already proved we can win a SB with 11 RB rushes. You can even say 13 if you include Aaron's 2 kneel downs.

"macbob" wrote:



Yeah, we won it, but we wouldn't have without the 3 turnovers. The elite QB and the passing offense by itself wasn't going to be sufficient if the elite D had not gotten those 3 turnovers.

Let me ask you this--did you think our offense was better in the first half or the second half?

I thought we were clearly better in the first half. And in my opinion, it's no coincidence that in the first half we had a more balanced attack, rushing 7 times for 35 yards.

We had a respectable run game, and then completely abandoned it in the second half--we only ran it 4 more times. The announcers noticed and commented on it during the game.

We abandoned the run, and then started to struggle offensively. We did not convert a single 3rd down play in the 3rd quarter--we were 0-4.

Personally, I'm uncomfortable with a team that relies solely on one player--even if he is an elite QB. If we lose Rodgers (due to concussion, broken foot, etc) , or he has an off-game we're toast.

I'd much rather have a more balanced offense. If the other team has a top 10 run defense but are weak against the pass we can exploit them. But conversely, if they've got a top 10 pass defense but their run defense is weaker than a wet paper bag, then we can have our way with them as well.

John Elway--an elite QB--could not win the Super Bowl until he had a good running game (Terrell Davis) to take some of the offensive pressure off of the QB.

In my opinion, the more diversified we are the better. I want to be able to beat the Patriots in their own stadium with Flynn at QB, and we won't do that without a running game.

We almost pulled that off this year when McCarthy came out and committed more to the running game (37 passes, 35 rushes). It was that game that McCarthy committed more to the run and kept it up through the playoffs (until the 2nd half of the SB).

Our offense was able to keep the Patriots offense sitting on the sidelines, when they did get on the field they were cold and out-of-synch for sitting for an extended period. Our D had an easier time of holding them, which put them back on the bench for another extended period of time. And we would have won it without a comical special teams gaff at the end of the 1st half where we let an OL man lumber down the field in slow motion returning a kickoff to inside our 5 yard-line.

Earlier in the year, it was the games where McCarthy completely abandoned the run that we lost to teams like Chicago (13 carries, 45 passes), Washington (13 carries, 46 passes), etc. As noted in threads during the season, in the games we were winning we were maintaining a healthy pass/run ratio of 50s/40s, and in the ones we were losing our pass/run ratio shot up to 70s/20s.

And the pass/run ratio in those losses wasn't because we were losing those games--we were ahead in each one at the end of the 3rd quarter, except for the Miami game.

It was a conscious decision to abandon the run, and it bit us big time.

"zombieslayer" wrote:



It was not a conscious decision to abandon the run in the super bowl. It was also not completely abandoned. In a post game PC, Mike McCarthy said the majority of the calls were run pass option. When he said he was putting the game on Rodgers, he didn't mean by calling pass plays. He meant by leaving the decision up to Rodgers.

The reads were all up to Rodgers to take advantage of how the Steelers lined up. If they lined up susceptible to the pass, he threw it.

If you want to blame anybody for the Packers not running enough, blame the Steelers.

If the WRs didn't get a bad case of the drops, there would have been a lot more production in the second half. Those passes were open and the plays were successful up until the passes were dropped. That is the only reason the O was not as productive in the third quarter.
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macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
13 years ago

It was a conscious decision to abandon the run, and it bit us big time.

"Dexter_Sinister" wrote:



It was not a conscious decision to abandon the run in the super bowl. It was also not completely abandoned. In a post game PC, Mike McCarthy said the majority of the calls were run pass option. When he said he was putting the game on Rodgers, he didn't mean by calling pass plays. He meant by leaving the decision up to Rodgers.

The reads were all up to Rodgers to take advantage of how the Steelers lined up. If they lined up susceptible to the pass, he threw it.

If you want to blame anybody for the Packers not running enough, blame the Steelers.

If the WRs didn't get a bad case of the drops, there would have been a lot more production in the second half. Those passes were open and the plays were successful up until the passes were dropped. That is the only reason the O was not as productive in the third quarter.

"macbob" wrote:



Dexter-agreed it wasn't a conscious decision in the SB. That quote related to the earlier games like Washington, where we abandoned the run even though we were running successfully.

My overall point is that when we get one dimensional--for whatever reason--the offense suffers (even the 2nd half of the SB). Whether it's the d-line is able to tee off on our QB, or the Safetys are free to concentrate on the pass, or the DB can focus on covering the WRs and don't have to worry about having to come up to support the run.

Our offensive production in the 3rd quarter--where our pass/run ratio was 85%/15%--was a grand total of 36 yards for the entire quarter. That was four possessions. That lack of production wasn't all drops.

I find the arguments on the drops unconvincing---"if we hadn't dropped them". It's like a running game advocate saying, well, if he had broken that one tackle, or if we had blocked that one guy...

Well, we did drop them. And that's one of the problems with being one-dimensional on offense. If you're struggling--whether it's because your guys are dropping it or the defense is doing a good job of disrupting you--you're in trouble. You've got nothing else to fall back on.

Dexter--I'm curious--did you like our offense better in the second half or the first?
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Dexter_Sinister
13 years ago
I liked the calls and the reads. I didn't like the drops. Offense is a broad category.

If the reads had worked out differently, I am sure we would have run it more.
Mike McCarthy even said that he wanted to run more because Starks seemed to have the "hot hand". But he was pretty happy with how it turned out. It was just the reads.

I agreed with him.

The plays worked as drawn up. The WRs got open, the QB delivered the ball accurately and on time. The percentage of drops was much higher than normal. If there were a normal number of drops, we would have blown them out.

The Pittsburgh D couldn't stop anything we threw at them. The only thing slowing us down was our WRs dropping way too many. Not because we didn't run enough. If we had a series of mistakes in the running game, we have the same problem. It was a series of mistakes. Not a series of getting out played.
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