nerdmann
12 years ago
Wow. Just wow.  LOL. I think that Mike McCarthy offense is predicated not just on passing, but on VERTICAL passing. They only run enough to keep teams honest. They didn't even do THAT last year, and they still won the Superbowl.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Zero2Cool
12 years ago
Fear Rodgers handing off to Starks and Grant.
Fear Rodgers throwing to Jennings. Nelson. Jones. Driver. Cobb. Finley.


I'd fear the latter helluva lot more than the former.
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Greg C.
12 years ago
I read the link, and the quote makes sense in context. He was making the point that when the coaches game plan they always begin by talking about the running game. Thankfully, he's given up on his old idea that he wanted the offense to be run-based. People will still make fun of him about it, though, just like they make fun of him for talking about "pad level" even though he hasn't mentioned pad level in a press conference in years.
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evad04
12 years ago
Nagler goes on to make some pretty good points about McCarthy's statement. There are a lot of called runs that end up being passes, because Rodgers has so much freedom at the line. This is a good thing, no doubt. McCarthy and Rodgers are on the same page, and there seems to be a significant degree of mutual trust. Now, when you crunch the numbers we pass the ball with a ratio of roughly 57/43 (209 pass attempts/157 rush attempts). When you solve for Rodgers' scrambles it becomes 64/36. When you add in plays that would be pass attempts but ended in sacks the ratio is 68/32.

So, it would appear that on 68% of plays, we are attempting to pass the ball. Who knows exactly how many run plays Rodgers has changed at the line. Let's say conservatively, there have been 20 plays (so, a little more than 3 a game) that would have been runs that ended up checked at the line to become pass plays. Now the ratio (including sacks and scrambles as pass attempt plays) is 62/38.

At the end of the day, hovering around a 60/40 ratio is -- my guess -- close to league average.

Are we still a passing offense? Unquestionably. So, to that end, McCarthy's statement is a little bizarre. But he has said this type of thing before. And I think the point he was trying to make is that in their system, it's something they preach. Even if the Pack end up throwing it a lot -- which makes sense given their surplus of talent at receiver -- the fact that they spend time with the run game in their preparation is worth noting.

And to restate the earlier point, you can't ignore the role Rodgers plays at the line. This is something to celebrate, definitely. Jacksonville, for example, runs the ball quite a bit (43/57 pass-run ratio). Part of this is because they aren't built to throw with their rookie QB and relative lack of playmaking receivers. They also have MJD to pound the rock with. But their ratio is also where it is because Blaine Gabbert isn't likely making a ton of checks at the line. I'm just speculating, but I doubt there are numerous occasions where he makes a sophisticated pre-snap read, changes the play, and delivers a TD strike. For Rodgers, it's just another day in the neighborhood.
William Henderson didn't have to run people over. His preferred method was levitation.
"I'm a reasonable man, get off my case."
azrunning
12 years ago
I would guess that when the game is still in question the ratio of pass to run is heavier on the pass and later in the game when we are leading we run more. So, when trying to score, win, etc we are more of a passing team than 60/40.
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gbguy20
12 years ago

Nagler goes on to make some pretty good points about McCarthy's statement. There are a lot of called runs that end up being passes, because Rodgers has so much freedom at the line. This is a good thing, no doubt. McCarthy and Rodgers are on the same page, and there seems to be a significant degree of mutual trust. Now, when you crunch the numbers we pass the ball with a ratio of roughly 57/43 (209 pass attempts/157 rush attempts). When you solve for Rodgers' scrambles it becomes 64/36. When you add in plays that would be pass attempts but ended in sacks the ratio is 68/32.

So, it would appear that on 68% of plays, we are attempting to pass the ball. Who knows exactly how many run plays Rodgers has changed at the line. Let's say conservatively, there have been 20 plays (so, a little more than 3 a game) that would have been runs that ended up checked at the line to become pass plays. Now the ratio (including sacks and scrambles as pass attempt plays) is 62/38.

At the end of the day, hovering around a 60/40 ratio is -- my guess -- close to league average.

Are we still a passing offense? Unquestionably. So, to that end, McCarthy's statement is a little bizarre. But he has said this type of thing before. And I think the point he was trying to make is that in their system, it's something they preach. Even if the Pack end up throwing it a lot -- which makes sense given their surplus of talent at receiver -- the fact that they spend time with the run game in their preparation is worth noting.

And to restate the earlier point, you can't ignore the role Rodgers plays at the line. This is something to celebrate, definitely. Jacksonville, for example, runs the ball quite a bit (43/57 pass-run ratio). Part of this is because they aren't built to throw with their rookie QB and relative lack of playmaking receivers. They also have MJD to pound the rock with. But their ratio is also where it is because Blaine Gabbert isn't likely making a ton of checks at the line. I'm just speculating, but I doubt there are numerous occasions where he makes a sophisticated pre-snap read, changes the play, and delivers a TD strike. For Rodgers, it's just another day in the neighborhood.

Originally Posted by: evad04 



one hell of a post sir.
evad04
12 years ago
For a team that does most of their damage through the air, the Pack seem to have an ability to run the ball when they need to. Rodgers is a 300+ yard machine right now and the offense is loaded with weapons. But from memory in the last few years, Green Bay has closed out at least a couple of games by ramming it down the throats of opposing defenses. I recall the win over Detroit early last season -- a very competitive game that Green Bay closed out on the final drive by pounding the rock.

I was sitting there watching the last three minutes going through all the possible scenarios. "If they run it on 1st and 2nd down that will leave Chicago with one more T.O. and the two-minute warning, etc. etc." When they lined up in shotgun I kept repeating, "Don't run the draw. It's too obvious. Don't run the draw." Starks took off for something like 15 yards and the 1st down. Minnesota had done a pretty darn good job against the run for most of the day. With the exception of one play from shotgun, the Packers didn't really hide their intentions. They just ran it, and ran it hard. Kuhn gets a lot of credit for being a quasi-folk hero, given that roughly once every 7 times he touches it the result is a TD (I fabricated that stat) -- but he's underrated as a run blocker. Love that guy.

Starks ran extremely hard on those runs. Very happy to have him -- and Grant. This is turning into a stream of consciousness, sorry. My overall sentiment is that this was a big win, and moreso -- a huge way to win.

And finally -- friends, Wisconsinites, Packer fans, lend me your ears. I come to praise these Packers. Enjoy the journey. Last year we were 10-6 and won it all. But when week 22 rolled around, we were the top team. Right now, we're 7 weeks in. There are hopefully 15 more. GO PACK GO!
William Henderson didn't have to run people over. His preferred method was levitation.
"I'm a reasonable man, get off my case."
all_about_da_packers
12 years ago
Evad's first post was downright fantawesome (combination of fantastic and awesome), and delivered better than most of us could this late hour. So there is not much to add to that.


But, since this is a thread about running the ball... even though he is not a Packer I have to say I am friggin amazed by AP. I mean holy hell, this man does things that should not be doable. That 50+ yard run at the end of the third.... dude runs it in tight, and cuts back not only to a hole that hardly seems to be there but he does it so fast that it looks like someone hit the turbo button on Madden while everyone else is on normal speed. Then he runs through a Burnett tackle that I'm sure would get most players down and he still seems to be going full speed. I mean my God, that play in its entirety is phenomenal. I never got to see players like Jim Brown and Walter Payton play live, so perhaps that is why I enjoy seeing AP play the game.... but my goodness I think I could watch him running all day.

As for Starks, the biggest thing was that he did not seem to hesitate at the end. He got the ball, knew where to go, made the cut and the right time and got the yardage. In other words, he looked in control; he looked less like a rookie than he has at some times this season. That is great to see, but I do wonder why on earth he sometimes seems to hesitate for a second. Nonetheless, I am stoked he delivered.
The NFL: Where Greg Jennings Happens.
nerdmann
12 years ago
Seemed to me when they needed the yards, they went behind Sitton. I guess Newhouse isn't necessarily that much of an upgrade against the run. Glad to see them seal the deal though. Be interesting to go back and watch the game again to see just how well they ran it to various sides and whatnot.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
Zero2Cool
12 years ago

And finally -- friends, Wisconsinites, Packer fans, lend me your ears. I come to praise these Packers. Enjoy the journey. Last year we were 10-6 and won it all. But when week 22 rolled around, we were the top team. Right now, we're 7 weeks in. There are hopefully 15 more. GO PACK GO!

Originally Posted by: evad04 



Week 22? Typo or am I missing something in this "fantawesome" post?? :-"


I'm starting to lose interest in James Starks being "the guy" for '12. Although, he was impressive in that final drive yesterday. I just wish he'd stop dancing so much. The thing I liked about him the most was how direct he ran to the hole. Now it feels like he's auditioning for dancing with the stars when he gets a hand-off.
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