Dead Cap doesn't matter, it's already spent, so it doesn't effect future decisions, and all teams get two Post June destinations, were they can release up to two players before June, but for accounting purposes treat them as they released them post June. And there are about 1,000 different ways to manipulate the cap with that stuff.
The key is what money would Alexander be getting going forward.
Looks like Alexander has a 700k workout bonus, if he shows up and works out with the team during the off-season, which at times he's skipped that.
And then $16.8 million to be earned during the season.
Looks like there were off-season roster bonuses the past two years where the Packers owed more than $8 million in March if Alexander was still on the roster,
BUT it does not mention one for 2025.
So in theory, the Packers can wait until training the end of training camp and see how Alexander looks then, and they're only risking 700k. And decided to keep him, demand a pay cut or release him at the end of camp.
My guess is that this plays out one of three ways...
1) Packers release him late February/early March, to get it over with as they're ready to move on and sign a vet in FA.
2) Packers keep hold of Alexander contract, and the two work out a restructured agreement, where Alexander maximum number decreases to the point that the Packers are happy, and Alexander $0 guaranteed increases to the point the Packers have no reason to release him.
3) Packers put him on the trade market and hold onto him, and hope one of the former DB coaches (which are with the Commanders and Falcons) want to trade for him.