Is the Steelers' defense actually elite? Is Jared Goff held up by his Lions supporting cast? And is Saquon Barkley really the difference for the Eagles?
Myth: The Packers can't get to the Super Bowl because they can't beat the top teams in the NFC.
Green Bay had an impressive 11-6 season but finished in third place in their own division behind the Lions and Vikings. The Packers' first five losses this season (prior to Week 18's irrelevant loss to the Bears) were to the 15-2 Lions (twice), 14-3 Vikings (twice) and 14-3 Eagles. Those were the Packers' only games against teams that won 11 or more games.
They weren't blowouts, though. Both of their losses to the Vikings were by two points, though they fell way behind early and were scrambling to make it close in the fourth quarter. Their losses to the Lions were by 10 and three points. And they lost by five to the Eagles in the season opener in Brazil. So the Packers have been competitive with those top teams -- they just haven't been able to beat them.
Why it's a myth: Failure to beat an 11-win team in the regular season doesn't disqualify you from making the Super Bowl. There have actually been 14 teams in history that reached the Super Bowl despite not posting a single victory in the regular season against an 11-win team. Most of them were 0-1 in such games, but the point here is that those teams hadn't been tested in this way, either. And perhaps the Packers can draw inspiration from the 2007 Giants, who went 0-4 in the regular season against teams with at least 11 wins but ended up beating a 16-0 Patriots team in that season's Super Bowl. (Those Patriots went 3-0 against 11-win teams that regular season.)
We found 32 teams in NFL history that have reached the Super Bowl after posting losing records against teams that won at least 11 games in the regular season. After all, 11-win teams are hard to beat! The Packers closed the season ranked third in ESPN's Football Power Index; being competitive against them ensures that no one will take them lightly just because they lack that big signature win. Plus, January's a great time to get the first.
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