This week will be massive for how we perceive Quay Walker moving forward
Between his struggles in fitting the run and several ejections, things haven’t gone exactly according to plan for former first-round pick Quay Walker in his 2.5 years with the Green Bay Packers . Over the last few weeks, though, Walker has seemingly improved in the run game overnight, drawing praise from both fans and coaches alike.
Here’s the catch: The Packers jumped to quick leads over the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins , something that will be tough to do against the NFC-leading Detroit Lions on Thursday. The result? The 49ers ran the ball all of three times in the first half against Green Bay. The Dolphins rushed for 39 combined yards on Thanksgiving.
Meanwhile, the Lions have a two-headed backfield in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs and aren’t afraid to throw in an extra offensive lineman in at tight end to make sure the ground game is moving smoothly. The Packers respected Detroit’s run game so much that Green Bay frequently played their base personnel, with only two cornerbacks on the field, against the Lions’ three-receiver sets — matching up linebacker Eric Wilson over a slot receiver — often in their first matchup this season. Generally, the Packers tend to match cornerbacks to receivers at a league-leading rate.
So it’s safe to say that Detroit’s run game, the core of their offense that’s built around power football, is going to be very different than what Green Bay has faced during Walker’s “turnaround.”
Even in Walker’s “turnaround,” too, there are some other hints that the step forward for the run game was really just opposing offenses choosing to attack the Packers’ defense through the air. According to Next Gen Stats, which is where the NFL’s player tracking data gets dumped, Green Bay’s cornerbacks were only the closest defenders to Miami receivers on 73 of the defense’s 365 passing yards allowed last week, as the Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa peppered the intermediate middle of the field — generally a zone where linebackers roam.
If you look at Tagovailoa’s spray chart from the game , it tells the story by itself.
Per Pro Football Focus, which charts these games beyond player tracking data, 237 of Tagovailoa’s passing yards were credited as plays where linebackers were the primary coverage defenders targeted. While Quay Walker and Eric Wilson combined to give up 96 yards, not exactly a great result, it was Isaiah McDuffie who was the biggest culprit on the team against Miami, as he is listed with 141 yards allowed in the game. Woof.
Edgerrin Cooper, arguably the Packers’ best coverage linebacker, has missed the past couple of games with a hamstring injury and has been a non-participant in Green Bay’s two practices this week. Assuming that Cooper isn’t going to play, the trio of Walker, Wilson and McDuffie will start over Ty’Ron Hopper — a rookie who has only played on defense in one game this regular season — versus Detroit.
If Walker really turned the corner, we’re going to find out this week. If McDuffie and Wilson are steady enough to be able to contribute as every-down linebackers, we’re going to find out this week. Just give me this one last data point before I anoint the Packers’ linebacker room.
Continue Reading @ Justis Mosqueda
Justis Mosqueda wrote: