Nonstopdrivel
14 years ago

Scouts Inc.: The Vikings without Favre 
August, 3, 2010

By Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson

So it seems as though Brett Favre will not be quarterbacking the Minnesota Vikings this season. If Favre does indeed retire, Tarvaris Jackson will be behind center for Minnesota. If Jackson struggles -- which certainly is not farfetched -- the ever inconsistent Sage Rosenfels could make an appearance. But for the sake of this article, lets assume that Jackson will be the opening day quarterback. How would this change Minnesotas offense? The answer, in a nutshell, is drastically.

The first logical thought is that the onus of the offense will be placed on Adrian Peterson and, to a much lesser extent, rookie running back Toby Gerhart. When you have an amazing football player like Peterson, you use him. He is capable of putting any offense on his back, and on many occasions I have referred to him as the best running back in football. But his offensive line was among the worst run-blocking units in the league last season and the Vikings really havent done much to upgrade that personnel up front.

Future Hall of Fame left guard Steve Hutchinson was not himself physically as he was battling an injury, but even at 100 percent Hutchinson is not nearly the player he was in his prime. But a healthy Hutchinson will help open holes for Peterson.

The rest of the line didnt get it done in 2009 and probably wont in 2010. Right tackle Phil Loadholt could take a step forward in this capacity in Year 2 of his development and maybe more of a fire will be lit under left tackle Bryant McKinnie, but that also might just be wishful thinking. And, of course, with Favre no longer behind center, every defensive coordinator in the league is going to dedicate his teams respective resources to shutting down Peterson.

But Peterson could play a little better, too. Of course, his fumbling is well-documented, but it could be corrected. He also didnt press the hole as he did earlier in his career. Peterson's role as a pass-catcher has been growing as he gains experience in this area of his game. It should take another major step forward as a dump-off receiver for Jackson, especially with pass-catching running back Chester Taylor now in Chicago.

Peterson is very special, and when on his game he will be able to run effectively against nearly any defensive front. But those around him are my concern.

And then there is the passing game. Jacksons lack of accuracy to all levels and poor feel for reading and manipulating coverages is a massive problem. Its also a problem that the Vikings did not have when Favre was taking the snaps. Jackson isnt really built to be a game manager, but that is exactly what he must become. More designed quarterback movement out of the pocket, quick, safe throws, play-action -- these are the things Jackson needs to improve upon (in addition to his overall accuracy and feel for coverages) to keep the chains moving for the Vikings.

Jackson will have weapons -- serious weapons, assuming that wide receiver Sidney Rices hip is not a lingering problem. Sure, Favre enhanced what Rice and Percy Harvin bring to the table, but both players also have vast ability. Rice is comparable to Larry Fitzgerald in his ability to use his height and exceptional body control to go up and snatch the football at its highest point. That should make up for some of Jacksons shortcomings. And Rice can really get downfield. With teams stacking the box to stop Peterson, Rice should see favorable coverage in the intermediate and deep zones. But can Jackson deliver the football to him in these circumstances? I have my doubts.

Harvin is only at the tip of the iceberg in his development. Remember, Harvin was more running back than wide receiver at Florida and should only improve in every facet of playing wideout. His talent is off the charts. Not only is he extremely fast, quick and laterally explosive, but Harvin is well built, strong and runs like a running back with the ball in his hands. I think Harvin can revolutionize the slot position and take it even a level further than what Wes Welker has achieved in New England. But to operate efficiently from the slot, very quick decisions must be made on option routes by both Harvin and Jackson. I have little doubt that Harvin will succeed in this capacity, but again, I have my doubts about Jackson.

Scouts Inc. watches games, breaks down film and studies football from all angles for ESPN.com.


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Formo
14 years ago
Double post.. WHOOPS!
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Formo
14 years ago
Interesting article. Here's another interesting piece.. Though I don't necessarily agree with it..

Brett Favre isn't needed 

Judging by the comments, the primary fan reaction to Brett Favre's retirement reports is skepticism, but the second-most-prevalent reaction is that No. 4 may be setting up a situation wherein he rides in on a white horse to turn the Minnesota Vikings' struggling offense around in midseason and help salvage a Super Bowl run.

As entertaining as that mindset is, it is based on the faulty assumption that Minnesota's quarterbacking productivity will falter in the event they actually have to play without Favre. There is no denying that Favre is coming off the best season of his illustrious career (it was the first time his passer rating topped 100) but there are ample metric reasons to think that the Purple and Gold's passing game will not only be nowhere near as bad as some are suggesting it will be -- it may actually be nearly as good as it was last season, even without Favre.

Before you call me crazy for thinking that either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels can fill Favre's statistical shoes, check out some of the evidence that backs up this claim.

Let's start by noting the two areas in which Favre really excelled in 2009: yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes and bad-decision percentage rate. Favre posted an 11.7 YPA total on vertical throws (defined as aerials of 11 or more yards downfield), which was tied for 10th in the league.

As impressive as that statistical ranking is, it pales in comparison to Favre's bad-decision rate. A bad decision is defined as a play in which a quarterback makes an error with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near-turnover (e.g. a dropped interception, a fumble that is recovered by the offense, etc.).

I have been tracking this metric since 2005 and, prior to the 2009 campaign, Favre was as bad as his gun-slinging reputation would indicate. His percentages were always near or above the 3 percent mark, which is just above the league median point -- and the benchmark for poor performance in this metric -- of 2.5.

He did a 180-degree turn in that statistic last season, as his 1.2 percent bad-decision mark was tied with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers for the No. 1 ranking in the league.

Using the vertical pass YPA and bad-decision rates as baselines, let's take a look at how Jackson and Rosenfels have historically fared in these areas.

Rosenfels is the veteran, so we'll start with him. His largest single-season pass volume came in Houston during the 2007 season, when he threw 240 passes while filling in for the injured Matt Schaub.

Rosenfels posted a 10.9 vertical YPA that season, or a total that was less than a yard away from Favre's 11.7 mark in 2009. Pro-rate the eight-tenths of a yard of YPA difference over the course of, say, 154 vertical throws (Favre's total in this category last year) and it equals 123 yards.

In other words, if Rosenfels can perform as well for the Vikings in this area as he did for the Texans in 2007, Minnesota should barely see a dip in its vertical pass production. And that doesn't even take into account the 13.3 vertical YPA Rosenfels posted while filling in for Schaub in the 2008 season.

Rosenfels did not fare nearly as well in the bad-decision metric, as his 3.7 percent rate in 2007 was three times as high as Favre's pace in this category last season. That obviously forecasts an increase in interceptions, but how many more picks are we looking at?

If we assume a pass volume of about 550 throws (slightly more than Favre's 545 throws last season), Favre's 1.2 percent bad-decision rate would mean about seven mistakes that could potentially lead to a turnover. Rosenfels' 3.7 percent mark would mean about 21 potential giveaways.

Fourteen picks is a significant difference -- but not every bad decision throw ends up being picked off. The typical rates for how often erroneous aerials are intercepted vary, but in general, it is somewhere around 50 percent; apply that number here and it would mean four picks via mistakes for Favre versus 11 for Rosenfels.

A difference of seven interceptions isn't good -- but they wouldn't cripple the Vikings' offense (especially considering the production they should get out of Adrian Peterson). That total also assumes that Favre would have kept up his anomalous 2009 pace and that Rosenfels would not improve on his poor performance in this area.

Now let's look at Jackson. His largest pass volume also came in 2007 and it contained more than a few high points. The two most notable of these were his 11.8 medium pass (11-19 yards) YPA, which was the best in the league, and his 2.3 percent bad-decision rate (tied for ninth).

Jackson's weakest metric points that season were low deep (20-29 yards) and bomb (30-plus yards) YPA totals. Those totals kept his overall vertical YPA down to 9.3, but a lot of that was due to having to throw long passes to Troy Williamson and Robert Ferguson. If the 18 deep/bomb passes Jackson threw to those two underachievers were taken out, his vertical YPA would have jumped to 10.9 yards, or exactly the aforementioned pace set by Rosenfels that proved to be a more than acceptable metric substitute for Favre.

Put all of these numbers together and it means one thing: If the man from Kiln, Miss., tries to ride that white stallion into town a few weeks into the season, Brad Childress should tell Favre and the horse to both head back home because their services won't be needed.

"KC Joyner, ESPN Insider wrote:


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porky88
14 years ago
I think saying Minnesota will be fine without Brett Favre is just being different for the sake of being different. That's a weak argument in that article.

You can't measure the ability to rise to the occasion. The San Francisco game has a different outcome without Favre. As does the Baltimore game. Against Green Bay, Favre tore the Packers apart on third-down. Can Tarvaris Jackson do that?

Yeah, Jackson and Rosenfals may only turn the ball over 14 times. But what are their chances of converting key plays on third-down? What about creating plays? Favre creates plays, but those guys haven't in their career.

Making quick decision. You think Favre doesn't make a difference. He does and every Packer fan deep down inside knows that yeah he gets rid of the ball quicker that some of the best QBs in the league, including Aaron Rodgers.

Minnesota is going to need big time play out of their defense IMO to achieve a Super Bowl without Favre. I'm talking 2000 Baltimore style of play.

You need coaching and QB play to win the Super Bowl. Without Favre, I'm not sure Minnesota has either of that.
nyrpack
14 years ago
stop all the bashing, he won 12 games last year, thats the most in at least 6 yrs, he means everything to the vikes, i hope he retires because i dont want to root against him anymore, it also gives the packers a clear advantage in the nfc north !!
jimmy b.
Formo
14 years ago

I think saying Minnesota will be fine without Brett Favre is just being different for the sake of being different. That's a weak argument in that article.

You can't measure the ability to rise to the occasion. The San Francisco game has a different outcome without Favre. As does the Baltimore game. Against Green Bay, Favre tore the Packers apart on third-down. Can Tarvaris Jackson do that?

Yeah, Jackson and Rosenfals may only turn the ball over 14 times. But what are their chances of converting key plays on third-down? What about creating plays? Favre creates plays, but those guys haven't in their career.

Making quick decision. You think Favre doesn't make a difference. He does and every Packer fan deep down inside knows that yeah he gets rid of the ball quicker that some of the best QBs in the league, including Aaron Rodgers.

Minnesota is going to need big time play out of their defense IMO to achieve a Super Bowl without Favre. I'm talking 2000 Baltimore style of play.

You need coaching and QB play to win the Super Bowl. Without Favre, I'm not sure Minnesota has either of that.

"porky88" wrote:



Yeah, fair assessment. I don't think there may be more to the article than you feel there is.. But it's still an interesting article none-the-less.
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zombieslayer
14 years ago
Well, having read both articles and Porky's excellent analysis (of which I completely agree), I still think the same. We stack the box, stop AP, and sweep the Vikings without Favre. TJ or Sage beating us? LOL.

Today's elite teams require an elite QB, not an elite RB. The NFL has two absolutely amazing RBs right now and of those 2, one is on an elite team. If that team's QB is retired, the team instantly drops off elite status.

The only team that had a shot last year without an elite QB were the Jets. They didn't last too long in the Playoffs because they couldn't score. In 2010, the SB winner will be quarterbacked by either Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Rivers, Manning, or Brady. Possibly by Romo. OK, stop laughing. I said "possibly."
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dhazer
14 years ago

Well, having read both articles and Porky's excellent analysis (of which I completely agree), I still think the same. We stack the box, stop AP, and sweep the Vikings without Favre. TJ or Sage beating us? LOL.

Today's elite teams require an elite QB, not an elite RB. The NFL has two absolutely amazing RBs right now and of those 2, one is on an elite team. If that team's QB is retired, the team instantly drops off elite status.

The only team that had a shot last year without an elite QB were the Jets. They didn't last too long in the Playoffs because they couldn't score. In 2010, the SB winner will be quarterbacked by either Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Rivers, Manning, or Brady. Possibly by Romo. OK, stop laughing. I said "possibly."

"zombieslayer" wrote:




SO your leaving out Flacco seeing the Ravens and Jets are the big favs to win the AFC
Just Imagine this for the next 6-9 years. What a ride it will be 🙂 (PS, Zero should charge for this)
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porky88
14 years ago

Well, having read both articles and Porky's excellent analysis (of which I completely agree), I still think the same. We stack the box, stop AP, and sweep the Vikings without Favre. TJ or Sage beating us? LOL.

Today's elite teams require an elite QB, not an elite RB. The NFL has two absolutely amazing RBs right now and of those 2, one is on an elite team. If that team's QB is retired, the team instantly drops off elite status.

The only team that had a shot last year without an elite QB were the Jets. They didn't last too long in the Playoffs because they couldn't score. In 2010, the SB winner will be quarterbacked by either Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Rivers, Manning, or Brady. Possibly by Romo. OK, stop laughing. I said "possibly."

"dhazer" wrote:




SO your leaving out Flacco seeing the Ravens and Jets are the big favs to win the AFC

"zombieslayer" wrote:



Flacco will be elite this year IMO.

Sanchez will be solid one day, but the Jets are hyped because it's New York. Put that exact same team in Buffalo and they aren't the favorites.
Formo
14 years ago

Well, having read both articles and Porky's excellent analysis (of which I completely agree), I still think the same. We stack the box, stop AP, and sweep the Vikings without Favre. TJ or Sage beating us? LOL.

Today's elite teams require an elite QB, not an elite RB. The NFL has two absolutely amazing RBs right now and of those 2, one is on an elite team. If that team's QB is retired, the team instantly drops off elite status.

The only team that had a shot last year without an elite QB were the Jets. They didn't last too long in the Playoffs because they couldn't score. In 2010, the SB winner will be quarterbacked by either Rodgers, Brees, Favre, Rivers, Manning, or Brady. Possibly by Romo. OK, stop laughing. I said "possibly."

"porky88" wrote:




SO your leaving out Flacco seeing the Ravens and Jets are the big favs to win the AFC

"dhazer" wrote:



Flacco will be elite this year IMO.

Sanchez will be solid one day, but the Jets are hyped because it's New York. Put that exact same team in Buffalo and they aren't the favorites.

"zombieslayer" wrote:



I don't think NY is over hyped. I think they are being billed correctly. I mean, they DID go to the AFC Championship game last year. Young talented QB with one of the potentially best run game in the league.. Lets not forget Revis island and that defense.. I'm buying in. Actually sounds alot like the Vikings minus the young talented QB.
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