HoustonMatt
15 years ago
If theres one constant on this board (other than the Rodgers/Favre debates), its that every offseason, Ted Thompson will be ripped by a certain percentage of board members for being cheap for leaving too much money under the cap for not spending on free agents. These are valid points. I might even argue that Thompson does, indeed, warrant these accusations. But thats not what Im trying to dispute. What Im disputing is the fallacy that spending money equals increased win totals.

I recently came across this chart, which perfectly illustrates the point Im trying to make.

http://www.altiusdirectory.com/Sports/nfl-salaries.php 

Thats simply a listing of each NFL team and their total payroll for 2009. Notice the almost zero correlation between how much a team spent on payroll and how successful of a season they had. Four of the bottom five teams in terms of payroll made the playoffs. Seven of the bottom half made the playoffs. Oakland and Cleveland, one and four respectively in payroll, were among the worst teams in the league. I could go on, but Im sure youre all capable of looking at the chart and deducing the obvious conclusions.

Simply put Money. Doesnt. Matter.

Now, this isnt to say that Ted Thompson should not spend any money at all. It doesnt mean he shouldnt make a play for certain free agents. But it does mean that if youd like to make the case that he NEEDS to spend more or that he NEEDS to go hard and heavy in the free agency market, youre doing so despite all evidence to the contrary.

So, lets talk money. Below is a list of current players (including pending free agents), their 2009 salary and the year their contract expires.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/62145597.html 

I just did some rough estimates, but Ive got the committed payroll for 2010 at about $91 million. That number doesnt include any free agents, restricted or unrestricted. Adding up all the salaries from 2009 gives you roughly $120 million, so if were to assume management will keep total payroll at the same figure, wed have roughly $30 million to spend this offseason, though that includes re-signing any UFA and RFA wed like back.

NOTE: Those numbers are extremely rough and serve more as a general idea of payroll commitments. For example, Jennings 09 base salary was $5 million, but it drops to under $2 million in 2010. Rodgers will also receive a lower base salary. Some guys may have escalating salaries. For simplicity, Ill just assume they balance out.

So theres your back-of-the-napkin calculations for our estimated payroll flexibility. It seems to me that theres more than enough room to bring back any of our current players, sign our draft picks and dip into the mid-level free agent pool for a player or two.
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djcubez
15 years ago
Good post. I like Ted's strategy of using our money to lock up key players but I feel he should make a few more additions through free agency. I'm not saying he should go on a spending spree but bringing in a few more guys here and there couldn't hurt, more of the Brandon Chillar signing than the Woodson types.

Of course, the reason why a lot of bad teams have high payrolls is because of free agency and signing players to huge contracts only to see their production drop off. Free agency is always a gamble.
earthquake
15 years ago
Good post, i think that in recent history there are FAR more examples of teams going balls-out and spending, but still sucking and missing the playoffs than there are examples of high spending teams being any good. The colts, pats, steelers, etc of this league are some of the most frugal teams around, but are clear examples of teams that are constantly winning, and winning big.
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buckeyepackfan
15 years ago
Ted has been building through the draft mainly, he has had a couple of decent FA signings(little joke).

I am hoping he takes a little different approach this off-season, re-signing those whose contracts are up, and extending as many others as possible.

Five years in and this team is solid in most areas, the injury bug really hit The packers at the safety spot, so I would hope Ted will look to Free Agency for a veteran who can come in and contribute right away, upgrading the position.

I am one who defended Jarret Bush all season, because he was thrust into a postion he had no business playing, he needs to be back on ST's where he is productive.

Ted has some big decisions to make with the guys who were injured last year it will definately be interesting to see who ends up sticking wioth the team.

I am hoping most will be back, The 2009 Packers were not far from being on top, a few additions and another year of experience...look out in 2010!!!
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ILikeThePackers39
15 years ago
I agree that safety would be a spot for some FA help - it would be nice if that help were of a higher caliber than is normal for Ted (read: better guys than were brought in this past season). Offensive line is another spot where I'd prefer a proven, good (doesn't have to be great or the best or most expensive guy out there, just good) free agent. Assuming the young CBs improve, I think we're okay at that spot (especially if Al comes back) and can look to the draft for that spot, as well as at RB.

Beyond that, I'll agree with Buckeye that the money's best spent in locking up the current roster this time around.

OTOH: If somehow, by some miracle, that Mays kid is sitting around at pick 23, Ted better do that. Never happen, I know - but still. I'd put up with some youth in his case.
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porky88
15 years ago
Honestly, Ted Thompson has done a nice job of doing what he does. The free agent crop is weak this year due to the uncapped season and it may take a trade to land someone that could help.

Looking at the off-season.

I suspect Ryan Pickett will join Brandon Chiller in getting his contract extended. I think Jolly, Bigby, Collins, Williams, and Colledge will have their contracts tendered to a point where no team will be willing to give up a high draft pick to sign someone to an offer sheet.

I would love to see the Packers add a pass rusher and an offensive lineman via free agency, but even if they don't, I have full confidence that they'll grab help in the draft once again.
all_about_da_packers
15 years ago
You know, I think people are overlooking one aspect of an uncapped year: contracts are expected to decrease in terms of money payout to free agents.

Teams may not have a salary cap maximum, but there is also no salary cap minimum; teams do NOT have to spend at least X amount of dollars.

As the agent on NFP said, agents generally expect salaries to drop - including vet. minimums. Teams that are still fair to clients may very well have an advantage.

Interesting to also note that in teh same piece, the players agent on NFP indicated that Green Bay may be one of the teams that relishes this because they generally believe in being fair to players in terms of contract.

There may not be a lot of quality FAs this year, but if the bidding wars are expected to be less and value of contracts not reflecting big payouts... I could see Ted jumping in once or twice if he likes someone.
The NFL: Where Greg Jennings Happens.
HoustonMatt
15 years ago
Good points AADP.

We also really don't how how big the free agent pool will be, nor who will be in it. Every off season some veterans are released for contract reasons and my suspicion would be that we'll see more of that than ever this year. One deterrent to releasing veterans is that their entire signing bonus is accelerated and counted against the coming year's cap. With no cap in place, we might see teams release all of their albatross contracts, since there will be no cap penalty.
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gbguy20
15 years ago


noticed one thing on that list, kind of irrelevant to the topic but just in case any1 was making a list of free agents by looking at this list like i was.

the asterisks are next to the names of players who now have expired contracts, they missed a big one, Tramon Williams will also be a free agent but has no asterisk next to his name. Just wanted to point it out.
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zombieslayer
15 years ago
Looking at that, it's probably a done deal that we trade Kampy. I'm going to miss him, but it's best for the team and best for Kampy's career to be elsewhere. I just hope he doesn't go to the Cows.

Now, I'll admit my ignorance here. Can someone please explain how long we'll be paying for KGB and Brohm?
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