zombieslayer
15 years ago
I'm going to prove to you that to win the SB nowadays, first you need a Defense. Then you need a decent QB. A decent RB is optional. Nice to have, but optional.

Chris Johnson is unarguably the best RB in the game right now. He's playing for a team that there's no way in hell is going to even go to the big game. Who's going to go? Well, from the AFC, it will be either the Colts, the Chargers, or the Patriots most likely. I was about to include the Bengals but they're only +47. I like +100 teams.

Let's look at the those 3 teams:
Colts: #1 D, elite QB, 30th in rushing
Chargers: #14 D, elite QB, 31st in rushing
Patriots: #7 D, elite QB, 14th in rushing

On our side of the pond, I'm taking the Saints, the Vikings, and our beloved Packers as the most likely NFC reps to the SB:
Saints: 18th D, elite QB, 5th in rushing
Vikings: 9th D, elite QB, 9th in rushing
Packers: 7th D, elite QB (he's got over a 100 rating, he's elite), 11th in rushing

From a historical perspective, if the season ended today, the Colts would beat the Packers in the Playoffs. It's because the team most likely to win the SB is the team with the #1 D. That's what history tells us. No guarantee of course, but the trend is there. Keep reading.

What do all these teams have in common? Well only the Chargers and Saints are not in the top 10 in D. All six have elite QBs. Only the Vikings have an elite RB but with a huge asterisk - the Saints' RBs play as a team and put together, they're really elite.

Now let's look at the SB winners in the 00s:
2000 - Ravens - #1 D, average QB, 5th in rushing. This team has one of the most sick Ds I've ever seen, barely allowing 10 points a game. Their QB was irrelevant but their RB tandem was elite - Jamal Lewis + Priest Holmes

2001 - Patriots - #6 D, the best QB of the 00s*, 13th in rushing. This was a well balanced team led by an evil genius Coach that found ways to win.

2002 - Bucs - #1 D, average to good QB, 27th in rushing. 2000 and 2002 are perfect examples of that boring (but true) cliche that defense wins championships. I hated that cliche and in the process of trying to disprove it, I ended up realizing it's right. Look at the stats. 2002 is the perfect example of it.

2003 - Patriots - #1 D, elite QB, 24th in rushing. Build a D, get a QB, RB optional. Need I say more?

2004 - Patriots - #2 D, elite QB, 7th in rushing. All around a more balanced team than the previous year. This team could rely on any aspect of it to win games, as it had to all season long.

2005 - Steelers - #3 D, good QB, 5th in rushing. Ben R had the worst QB performance ever in a SB by a winning team, but you don't need to do much when your team doesn't allow very many points.

2006 - Colts - #23 D, elite QB, 18th in rushing. OK, there are exceptions to every rule and this year, by historical trends, da Bears were supposed to win the SB. Instead, Wrecks Grossman singlehandedly destroyed his team in the SB (and I lost a lot of money because of that ass clown).

2007 - Giants - #17 D, good to average QB, 4th in rushing. Two years in a row, we have exceptions to the rule. However these two years are the exception. See every other year in the 00s.

2008 - Steelers - #1 D, good QB, 23rd in rushing. I think I've made my point. Build a D. Get yourself a decent QB, RB optional.

So in summary, in 4 of the 9 years, the team with the #1 D won the SB. One year it was the #2 D and one year the #3 D. That makes 6 of the 9 years, a top 3 D wins the SB. Kind of proves the point that D wins championships.

For QBs, an elite QB is nice to have but five of the 9 years, there wasn't an elite QB on the SB winning team. Tom Brady, the best QB of the 00s, won 3 of them. Peyton Manning, the second best QB of the 00s won once. Some of these other QBs are forgettable though but "good enough" to let the D all the work and work a little bit of magic when necessary.

As for RBs, optional. Giants had the best running game of the SB winners this decade at #4. The '02 Bucs won the SB at 27th in rushing. The '03 Pats won it at 24th in rushing. Last years Steelers won it with only 23rd in rushing. So nice to have, but optional.


--
* My personal opinion. Most of you would probably put P Manning above Brady but Manning implodes in the Playoffs worse than any other QB I've ever seen. He doesn't have an excuse either as he's played 5 years this decade with a top 10 D including one year with the #1 D and 2 with the #2 D. This year, once again he has the #1 D and he'll most likely collapse again in the Playoffs.

Brady on the other hand has good to solid stats during regular season, then becomes Joe Montana Jr in the Playoffs. I'd take Brady.
My man Donald Driver
UserPostedImage
(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
coltonja
15 years ago
Good stuff. But, I will never say Tom Brady is the best quarterback in any sense. I hate him more than any other player in the NFL.
UserPostedImage
Thanks to pack93z for the sig!!!
zombieslayer
15 years ago
Oh it's not about liking him. Him and Belichick have a special place reserved for them in hell. I'm just talking performance.
My man Donald Driver
UserPostedImage
(thanks to Pack93z for the pic)
2010 will be seen as the beginning of the new Packers dynasty. 🇹🇹 🇲🇲 🇦🇷
porky88
15 years ago
Personally, Minnesota is the best roster in the league, but going up to New Orleans is going to be tough. I also don't like Peyton in the playoffs, but I'm feeling San Diego this year. I like what they got going on and they've knocked Indy out in the last two seasons.

I would get San Diego vs. New Orleans in the Super Bowl, but the trend you point out says it's more likely to be Indianapolis vs. Minnesota.

One thing I learn watching trends and that's they're meant to be broken....... eventually. Whether or not that's this year will remain to be seen.

I refuse to mention a certain team in this topic for personal reasons. 🙂
Fan Shout
beast (18m) : The Packers re-signed three exclusive rights free agents WR Melton, P Whelan and RB Wilson.
Zero2Cool (13h) : February 5, 2002 (age 23) ok no. packers.com is wrong
Zero2Cool (13h) : Micah Robinson is only 19??
Zero2Cool (15h) : 6 first rounders on Packers defense now
Zero2Cool (29-Apr) : LB Isaiah Simmons. Signed. Called it!!! Oh yeah!
Martha Careful (29-Apr) : ty bboystyle...fat fingers
bboystyle (29-Apr) : Tom*
Martha Careful (28-Apr) : RIP Packer Safety Tim Brown
beast (27-Apr) : Yeah, but also some of the wording suggestions Jax only pranked called the QB, not the others... and if he had an open spreadsheet & 3 calls
beast (27-Apr) : Thank goodness he's not leaving the Turtle in the Red Tide
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Cowboys 1st round pick Tyler Booker will indeed be bringing his pet turtle to Dallas with him
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : that contained all prospects info and contact
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : beast, according the Falcons statement Jax came across it on an ipad. If I had to guess, probably an open spread sheet or something
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Simmons put up an emoji with cheese.
beast (27-Apr) : Not sure anyone is interested in Isaiah Simmons... Collin Oliver might of taken his potential slot
beast (27-Apr) : I'm going with Jax Ulbrich is not telling the whole truth... he accidentally came across it? Why would a defensive coordinator have a QB #?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : He's not that great, but final piece of the script.\
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : If we add Isaiah Simmons, book your Super Bowl tickets
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Colts 1st round TE Tyler Warren also got prank called, was that Jax Ulbrich as well?
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Jax Ulbrich, Jeff Ulbrich’s son, released an apology for his role in the Shedeur Sanders prank call.
Martha Careful (27-Apr) : apparently he did not participate in practice or play on the east west shrine game nor the NFL combine. The kid was a mediocre spoiled brat
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : Yeah that one that was a super wounded duck that Sanders supporters are highlighting to prove a point
Zero2Cool (27-Apr) : Shough is the guy who missed guys at combine isn't he?
beast (27-Apr) : It's not official until I'm dead! I have a chance still! (Not really)
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : I could feel my body decomposing in real time when I read that
Mucky Tundra (27-Apr) : @MIKEYSAINRISTIL Tyler Shough will officially be the last person drafted to the NFL born in the 1900’s
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : saw the tweet, he meant the city
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : Was that for the team or the city?
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter · 3m Draft grade is in: Green Bay gets an A. The people, the city, the venue were all superb. NFL Draft’s next
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matt LaFleur says Jaire Alexander is participating in #Packers offseason program, which has been conducted virtually during this first week
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : ✅ ...
buckeyepackfan (26-Apr) : Check
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Matthew Golden cahanged 81 to 22??
TheKanataThrilla (26-Apr) : Sam Howell to Vikings...guess no Aaron
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : 1 round 7 min, with one extra minute if there is a trade. 2nd round 4 minutes, 3rd -3, 2 thereafter IMO
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Agree
dfosterf (26-Apr) : Great idea imo
dfosterf (26-Apr) : 1st round to 7 minutes with one extension
dfosterf (26-Apr) : NFL comissioner wants to shorten the 2st
Mucky Tundra (26-Apr) : @jalenreagors They’re discussing if Sheduer can go back to college on NFL Network LMFAOOOOO
beast (26-Apr) : Great point Martha
beast (26-Apr) : Buddy Ryan used to say if a candy bar goes missing, there are two to blame, Rex and Rob 🤪 jk 😁
Martha Careful (26-Apr) : Bum Phillips used to say there are two ways to get better. Get better players or get players to play better. We have a new DL coach
Zero2Cool (26-Apr) : Yes. Look at the losses last year. They can win.
beast (26-Apr) : Can Packers win with their current DL?
bboystyle (26-Apr) : waiting for a pass rusher.
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes between picks in the 3rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 3rd. Hate this phone
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 4rd
dfosterf (25-Apr) : 5 minutes in the 4
Please sign in to use Fan Shout
2024 Packers Schedule
Friday, Sep 6 @ 7:15 PM
Eagles
Sunday, Sep 15 @ 12:00 PM
COLTS
Sunday, Sep 22 @ 12:00 PM
Titans
Sunday, Sep 29 @ 12:00 PM
VIKINGS
Sunday, Oct 6 @ 3:25 PM
Rams
Sunday, Oct 13 @ 12:00 PM
CARDINALS
Sunday, Oct 20 @ 12:00 PM
TEXANS
Sunday, Oct 27 @ 12:00 PM
Jaguars
Sunday, Nov 3 @ 3:25 PM
LIONS
Sunday, Nov 17 @ 12:00 PM
Bears
Sunday, Nov 24 @ 3:25 PM
49ERS
Thursday, Nov 28 @ 7:20 PM
DOLPHINS
Thursday, Dec 5 @ 7:15 PM
Lions
Sunday, Dec 15 @ 7:20 PM
Seahawks
Monday, Dec 23 @ 7:15 PM
SAINTS
Sunday, Dec 29 @ 3:25 PM
Vikings
Sunday, Jan 5 @ 12:00 PM
BEARS
Recent Topics
4h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

7h / Green Bay Packers Talk / Zero2Cool

7h / Packers Draft Threads / Mucky Tundra

8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

8h / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

29-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / wpr

27-Apr / Packers Draft Threads / Mucky Tundra

27-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / beast

27-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

27-Apr / Around The NFL / bboystyle

27-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Mucky Tundra

27-Apr / Green Bay Packers Talk / Martha Careful

27-Apr / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

27-Apr / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

27-Apr / Packers Draft Threads / wpr

Headlines
Copyright © 2006 - 2025 PackersHome.com™. All Rights Reserved.