At 9-4 and on a 5 game winning streak we're sitting pretty with a great shot at the playoffs and once you get in anything can happen. I can honestly say that 5 weeks ago, after that horrific loss in Tampa, I was skeptical about our chances of making the playoffs. I still had hope, but I didn't think we would rattle off 5 wins in a row. Anyway, at this point, the worst we can finish in the NFC is 7th, just missing the playoffs. So we're looking at being able to clinch at least a wild card next week and this is how:
We have to take care of business and beat a reeling Pittsburgh team that is now 6-7 and has lost 5 straight. If we can do that, there are two possible ways we can clinch a wild card spot.
Scenario 1: Dallas Lose
If Dallas lose they can finish no better than 10-6 and we can finish no worse than 10-6. We have the head to head tiebreaker with them, which would apply in all cases accept for in a three-way or more tie. So let's look at the different tie scenarios.
New York, Dallas, and Philly all finish 10-6:
New York would have to win out to finish 10-6, beating Washington, Carolina, and Minnesota. Dallas would have to win their next two games after losing this first one, losing to New Orleans but beating Washington and Philly. Philly would lose to Dallas in this scenario and would have to lose one more game to tie. To make it interesting we'll give them a better NFC record and have them lose to Denver but beat San Fran.
In this case, we go to division tiebreakers to determine the winner and then rank the two non-winners. In the head to head games, Philly sweeps New York, New York sweeps Dallas, and Dallas sweeps Philly. All have a 4-2 division record. The next tie breaker is won-tie-lost percentage against common opponents so we need to add in their record against the NFC South and AFC West. The Giants would be 9-5, Dallas would be 9-5, Philly would be 8-4 eliminating them and giving the Giants the NFC East as they won the head to head sweep against Dallas. Dallas sweeps Philly so they're top ranked wild card and get compared to us. We won head to head so we get the 5th seed.
Let's back up a second though. We assumed Philly lost to Denver and beat San Fran. If you change those games to get the tie again, Philly now has a 9-5 record against common opponents as well. It then goes to conference which is again tied. So it would go to strength of victory. All of their wins against Washington and each other would cancel each other out for strength of victory, as would their common wins against Tampa, Atlanta, Carolina, and Kansas City (that's 8 of their 10 wins). Between New York and Dallas they both beat Oakland whereas New York would beat Minnesota compared to Dallas beating Seattle so New York's strength of victory would have to be better (Seattle can't have a better record than Minnesota). Either Philly or New York could win the division at this stage but it does not matter because in either case Dallas is now in the wild card pool. If Philly wins, New York is top wild card in the East and beat us with a better conference record but we then go ahead of Dallas as the sixth seed. If New York wins (more likely having beaten Minnesota with their record) Dallas is top wild card in the East and we pass them with the head to head win giving us the fifth seed.
Philly and Dallas tie at 10-6:
If New York doesn't tie the have to be worse than 10-6 (they already have 6 losses. Dallas wins the East and we get sixth seed behind Philly because they have the better conference record.
Philly and New York Tie at 10-6:
Dallas most have a worse record than 10-6 as they would already have 6 losses at the start of this scenario. We are the sixth seed behind New York because of conference record.
Dallas and New York Tie at 10-6:
If Philly has a better record they are East champs and we are the sixth seed behind New York as they have the better conference record and would be top East wild card having swept Dallas. If Philly has a worse record than New York wins the East and we have the fifth seed thanks to our head to head win against Dallas.
Scenario 2: New York loses
They have seven losses and can't match our record. We clinch at least sixth.
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures http://www.nfl.com/standings http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule?team=NYG http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule?team=DAL http://www.nfl.com/teams/schedule?team=PHI And no, someone does not have too much time on their hands. Someone just does not want to study for finals.
Born and bred a cheesehead