macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago
I've seen that question raised in a lot of threads. Thought I'd do some analysis of the top 10 QBs (by rating) in the league (you wouldn't want to compare him against the bottom of the league, right?).

ESPN in their Splits analysis breaks out the passes by downs, etc, and one of the categories they break out by is length of pass down field. They show attempts, completions, yardage, interceptions, etc. ESPN breaks it out for behind line of scrimmage (BLOS), 1-10 yds, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, and 40+. For simplicity (and room), I'm breaking them up into short (BLOS - 10 yds), medium (11-30), and long (31+).

Here's the number of attempts for the top 10, followed by the % of total attempts, starting with our own Aaron Rodgers, with the rest in order of their rating :magnifyglass: :

Rodgers GB
S: 140 (62%)
M: 70 (31%)
L: 15 (7%)
Tot: 225

Brees NO
S: 136 (59%)
M: 81 (35%)
L: 13 (6%)
Tot: 230

Voldemort (He who shall not be named) MIN
(ok, Im a smart ass :ahole: . Please, please, please dont ban me, Z2C)
S: 181 (71%)
M: 60 (24%)
L: 14 (5%)
Tot: 255

Manning IND
S: 168 (64%)
M: 79 (30%)
L: 16 (6%)
Tot: 263

Roethlisberger PIT
S: 159 (68%)
M: 62 (27%)
L: 12 (5%)
Tot: 233

Brady NE
S: 191 (70%)
M: 68 (25%)
L: 14 (5%)
Tot: 273

Schaub HOU
S: 195 (69%)
M: 84 (30%)
L: 4 (1%)
Tot: 283

Romo DAL
S: 152 (66%)
M: 68 (30%)
L: 10 (4%)
Tot: 230

McNabb PHI
S: 91 (68%)
M: 36 (27%)
L: 6 (5%)
Tot: 133

Rivers SD
S: 133 (56%)
M: 88 (37%)
L: 17 (7%)
Tot: 238

It appears that the perception that we've abandoned the short passing game isn't supported by the stats.

It's pretty apparent from looking at the stats that we're in the ball park with the other teams /QBs (for passes that Rodgers hasn't gotten sacked on). With the number of examples where there have been guys open underneath and Rodgers doesn't dump it off to them it's apparent that he's not always taking advantage of the short game when it is available to him, so you can't lay that all on McCarthy, either.

All in all, I'd say this myth is BUSTED.
Stevetarded
15 years ago
The thing is though with our offensive line we need to be using a much higher % of quick short passes. It doesn't matter where we compare to other teams because we have a different set of issues. Our QB has been sacked more this year so far than all of last year. It doesn't matter what McCarthy wants the offense to do because it obviously cannot be run the way he wants.

Our gameplan hasn't changed 1 bit all year and guess what, if it doesn't change going forward Rodgers is going to keep getting sacked. It's time to stop being stubborn and react to the situation instead of ignore it.

Earlier this year I am sure that many of us were wondering what the effect of all the damage Rodgers has been taking was going to have on him.... well we saw it last week and it wasn't good.
blank
macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago

The thing is though with our offensive line we need to be using a much higher % of quick short passes. It doesn't matter where we compare to other teams because we have a different set of issues. Our QB has been sacked more this year so far than all of last year. It doesn't matter what McCarthy wants the offense to do because it obviously cannot be run the way he wants.

Our gameplan hasn't changed 1 bit all year and guess what, if it doesn't change going forward Rodgers is going to keep getting sacked. It's time to stop being stubborn and react to the situation instead of ignore it.

Earlier this year I am sure that many of us were wondering what the effect of all the damage Rodgers has been taking was going to have on him.... well we saw it last week and it wasn't good.

"Stevetarded" wrote:



Don't get me wrong, I'm fed up with MM, I just think that AR shares a good portion of the blame for the sacks. He's ignoring guys open underneath trying to hit the home run.

He knows his line is this bad (after getting sacked that many times, he better know that, or he's an extremely dim bulb). He has GOT to get the ball out of his hand quicker, and take what the defense gives you.
zombieslayer
15 years ago
Whoa. Before you say the short passing game is a myth, there's a HUGE difference between a 10 yard pass and one at or behind the line of scrimmage. You can't combine those.
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macbob
  • macbob
  • Veteran Member Topic Starter
15 years ago

Whoa. Before you say the short passing game is a myth, there's a HUGE difference between a 10 yard pass and one at or behind the line of scrimmage. You can't combine those.

"zombieslayer" wrote:



The numbers were in the ballpark for the QBs, so I felt a little safe combining them. For example, Rodgers BLOS/1-10 yds were 33/107. Just picking some from random:

Tony Romo's split was 34/118, Drew Brees' was 34/102. Percentage wise, the quarterbacks were fairly close for the most part.

FYI, my little boy and I have been watching Mythbusters on TV, and I put the myth BUSTED comment in for his amusement. :icon_smile:
PackFanWithTwins
15 years ago
I guess I consider short different from ESPN. Short to me is 5 yards or less. Medium is 6-15, Long <15

I watched the first half of the Tampa game pretty darn close and have gone back over. When the camera is wide at the snap, and all WR are running past 5, 10 yards without making a cut we are not concentrating on the short game.

There should be a slant, dig, or 5 yards out, square in or curl on every single pass play by WR. Not a RB in the flat as an emergency dump off.
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nerdmann
15 years ago

The thing is though with our offensive line we need to be using a much higher % of quick short passes. It doesn't matter where we compare to other teams because we have a different set of issues. Our QB has been sacked more this year so far than all of last year. It doesn't matter what McCarthy wants the offense to do because it obviously cannot be run the way he wants.

Our gameplan hasn't changed 1 bit all year and guess what, if it doesn't change going forward Rodgers is going to keep getting sacked. It's time to stop being stubborn and react to the situation instead of ignore it.

Earlier this year I am sure that many of us were wondering what the effect of all the damage Rodgers has been taking was going to have on him.... well we saw it last week and it wasn't good.

"Stevetarded" wrote:




Rodgers has been acting very strange.
MM came out this week and indicated that Rodgers wasn't getting down with the program. What's up with that? He definitely seems to be looking downfield more.
Even this past week he was throwing "late down the middle," which is the ultimate no-no in MM's quarterback school.
And you're right. Nothing has changed, all year. Even though he keeps getting sacked, they still drop way back and try to chuck it deep.
Although this week, we might be able to say that fatigue was a factor in the 86 degree humidity, since the sacks all came late.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
nerdmann
15 years ago

Whoa. Before you say the short passing game is a myth, there's a HUGE difference between a 10 yard pass and one at or behind the line of scrimmage. You can't combine those.

"zombieslayer" wrote:




Yeah, there's also a difference between hitting DD on an 8 yard slant and watching him take it to the house and throwing 60 yards downfield to Jennings in quadruple coverage. Do these stats differentiate between the two?
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
nerdmann
15 years ago

I guess I consider short different from ESPN. Short to me is 5 yards or less. Medium is 6-15, Long <15

I watched the first half of the Tampa game pretty darn close and have gone back over. When the camera is wide at the snap, and all WR are running past 5, 10 yards without making a cut we are not concentrating on the short game.

There should be a slant, dig, or 5 yards out, square in or curl on every single pass play by WR. Not a RB in the flat as an emergency dump off.

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:




AGREED.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
all_about_da_packers
15 years ago

I watched the first half of the Tampa game pretty darn close and have gone back over. When the camera is wide at the snap, and all WR are running past 5, 10 yards without making a cut we are not concentrating on the short game.

"PackFanWithTwins" wrote:




MM's system is such that the QB often has a pass/run option. Check out the routes the WRs are running on said options, I'd be real interested to see the result. I'd think the patterns are mostly short slants.

I can understand calling for shorter patterns against zone, but against press-man? I think it's a bit harder to have that be effective. Against zone I think your argument is valid...
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