Zero2Cool
a year ago

Let me answer this way. When people ask me my age now, I tell them I'm three years on the downside of life expectancy. It took a while, but one of the things I've learned over my adult life is that the smartest people I encounter are those who know what they don't know.

Generally, those who fall into that category also tend to share knowledge rather than spout worthless opinions.

That's one of the reasons I watched the NFL Draft on the NFL Network this year rather than ESPN. Daniel Jeremiah, a former college quarterback and NFL scout; Joel Klatt, another former college quarterback who signed a free agent deal with New Orleans; and Charlie Davis, a former college defensive back and assistant coach, focused on offering a summary of each pick's strengths and weaknesses instead of sounding off like they know more than the personnel people who just made the pick.

Also, fresh in my memory, was ESPN's instant assessment of the 2023 draft.

Mel Kiper's list of the five teams with the most head-scratching drafts last year was headed by Detroit. Also on the list was Houston.

Here was what Kiper had to say about Detroit's selections:

"I thought I would like the Lions' class when they traded down at six. … But I just don't get these two choices. Let's start with (Jahmyr) Gibbs, a multi-dimensional player who racked up receptions for the Crimson Tide. Look who else was on the board at 12, though. One of the cornerbacks, Christian Gonzales or Emanuel Forbes or Deonte Banks; or edge rusher Nolan Smith made more sense to me. Yes, Detroit had a bunch more picks on day two, but it could have found a running back there instead of 12.

"As for (Jack) Campbell, it's a reach 40 spots in my rankings. He's the third-ranked inside linebacker. I thought he'd go in the middle of round two. Instead, when we talk positional value, both of these positions are not generally prioritized in the first round, so this is the very definition of head-scratching."

This was Kiper's offering on the Texans' selections:

"In a vacuum, I love the prospects they added. Yes, (C.J.) Stroud is my third-ranked passer, but I had him at No. 5 overall on my Big Board – he was just behind Will Levis in my position rankings. (Will) Anderson had outstanding sack production in college and could rack up 10 sacks per season. The reason I wrote 'in a vacuum' there is because of the haul Houston had to send to move up. This is a roster that needs a ton of help, so are we sure that the 2024 first-rounder won't end up in the top five again? Houston no longer has a second-round pick in this draft."

If you went to a stockbroker with a spare $10,000 to invest and got that kind of results would you turn to that person again the next year with another $10,000?

Based on rookie returns, the Texans and Lions certainly had two of the best drafts last year. In fact, I'd argue they had the two best based on their overall improvement as a team and how much of it could be attributed to their draft picks. The Texans shot up from a 3-13-1 to a 10-7 finish and a division title. The Lions leaped from 9-8 to 12-5 and also a division championship.

Stroud and Anderson were the Offensive and Defensive rookies of the year, respectively.

Gibbs and the Lions' second-round pick, tight end Sam LaPorta, were two of the other six rookie of the year finalists. Next to quarterbacks, playmakers determine the winner of most NFL games, and Gibbs finished with 1,261 total yards and 11 TDs. With his 10 TDs and 86 receptions, LaPorta arguably rivaled Travis Kelce for being the best playmaking tight end in the league last season.

As for Campbell, he wasn't a splashy defender but he added some much-needed punch to Detroit's defense, although its second-round defensive choice Brian Branch was more of a playmaker.

Also, in Kiper's worst five were the Green Bay Packers, whose draft yielded more than a half-dozen key contributors on another of the league's most improved teams.

Kiper and his ESPN cohorts weren't alone in bashing Detroit's draft last year. Remember these headlines last spring?

The Sporting News, by Jacob Camenker: "The 15 worst value picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. From Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs to 49ers' Jake Moody"

USA TODAY, by Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz: "NFL drafts most questionable first-round picks: Lions double-dip with bewildering choices" The writer then listed Gibbs, No. 1; and Campbell, No. 2, as the two worst choices of the first round.

Slate, by Alex Kirshner: "The Lions Made the Weirdest Pick of the NFL Draft: Jahmyr Gibbs is an incredible athlete. But taking him so high strains belief."

Pro Football Focus, by Max Chadwick: "2023 NFL Draft: The four biggest reaches of Round 1, including Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell to the Detroit Lions"

PFF didn't like the Lions draft because Gibbs and Campbell weren't on its list of first-round prospects. The two other drafts it didn't like were Green Bay's because it didn't take a receiver in the first round, and Houston's because it traded away its 2024 No. 1 because it might cost the Texans QB Caleb Williams."

How much does that website charge, again, for that kind of brilliant insight?

Sorry for not directly answering your question yet. But how much stock do I put into post-draft grades? Absolutely none. What's more, I find it incredulous that any pundit, any fan or any website that claims to do a deep dive into studying film of college prospects would think they might know more than the personnel people involved in the selection process at the draft headquarters of each NFL team.

Cliff Christl wrote:



I kinda love this response lol
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beast
a year ago

I kinda love this response lol

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Agreed absolutely none, as they're usually grading it based on their pre draft expectations... and the picks mental side and how they fit into the scheme matter a lot more for actual results.


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wpr
  • wpr
  • Preferred Member
a year ago
Once upon a time I looked at the "non professional" grades and valued them. Today I realize the only professionals are the ones that work for the 32 organizations. These media people gave grades based on their ideas. Not once have I seen someone admit they or the herd that they follow were wrong. Even if they would look back over 3-5 years. They keep doing the same thing time after time.

Giving a grade before a full 3 years is too soon. Not understanding that most draftees don't work out is also a mistake.

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Fan Shout
beast (9h) : Yeah, and I enjoyed your comments and just attempted to add to it. Sorry if I did it incorrectly.
wpr (11h) : Beast I never said Henderson was the salt of the earth. Nor even that he was correct. Just quoting the guy.
Zero2Cool (13h) : What did you do??
Zero2Cool (13h) : Whoa
beast (13h) : OMG the website is now all white, even some white on white text
beast (14h) : Henderson, who admits to taking cocaine during the Super Bowl against the Steelers, might dislike Bradshaw as he lost two Superbowls to him
wpr (28-May) : Hollywood Henderson said Bradshaw “is so dumb, he couldn't spell 'cat' if you spotted him the C and an A.”
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : Cooper stock=BUY BUY BUY
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : Also notes he’s playing with more confidence.
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : @AndyHermanNFL MLF says there was a time last year where Cooper was at 220 pounds. Now he’s at 240 and still flying around.
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : And don't even get me started on Frank Caliendos "impersonations"
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : I got tired of them being circle jerks with them overlaughing at each others jokes.
Zero2Cool (28-May) : It used to be must watch TV for me. now it's "meh" maybe to hear injury update
Mucky Tundra (28-May) : I haven't watched the pregame shows in years and I don't feel like I've missed a thing
Zero2Cool (28-May) : Love says knee affected him all season, groin injury didn't help matters.
Zero2Cool (28-May) : I used to enjoy him on FOX Pregame. Now it's like a frat party of former Patriots.
Zero2Cool (28-May) : LaFleur on Watson: “Christian is doing outstanding. I would say he’s ahead of schedule.”
Martha Careful (28-May) : Bradshaw is a dumb ass cracker. I am so tired of his "aw shucks" diatribe. He should shrivel up and go away.
buckeyepackfan (28-May) : He wad all butt hurt because Aaron duped the media saying he was immunized.
buckeyepackfan (28-May) : Bradshaw needs to retire. He's been ripping on Rodgers ever since the covid crap. He was all hury
Zero2Cool (28-May) : Terry Bradshaw doesn't want Rodgers in Pittsburgh lol wow
Zero2Cool (27-May) : one day contract, which he also feels is pointless, but if Packers came to him, he would
packerfanoutwest (27-May) : Aaron Rodgers talks possibility of retiring with Packers, just another rumor
dfosterf (27-May) : Go watch 2001
Zero2Cool (26-May) : 1984
dfosterf (26-May) : That movie sent a chill through many. 1968.
dfosterf (26-May) : "Open the pod bay doors, HAL"
buckeyepackfan (25-May) : Haven't we all seen thus movie? It doesn't end well!! Lol
Zero2Cool (25-May) : lol Anthropic’s new AI model turns to blackmail when engineers try to take it offline
dfosterf (25-May) : Claude Opus 4
dfosterf (25-May) : AI system resorts to blackmail when its developers threaten to take it offline
beast (22-May) : Colts Owner Jim Irsay has passed away
Zero2Cool (21-May) : Well, emailing should work now. After not working for almost a year. Oops.
Zero2Cool (21-May) : Brotherly Shove did not get enough votes.
Zero2Cool (20-May) : lol our email hasn't worked in months. 7 pages of unverified users
Zero2Cool (20-May) : MySpace Screaming Lord Byron ... Brett Favre.
Zero2Cool (19-May) : Packers have signed first-round pick Matthew Golden, leaving second-round tackle Anthony Belton as their only unsigned draft pick
beast (19-May) : Supposedly he has to take his image, and name off of it... but otherwise could keep selling wine if he wanted to.
Zero2Cool (19-May) : he giving up his win business?
beast (19-May) : Speaking of Woodson, sounds like he'll be a minority owner (0.1%) of the Browns
Mucky Tundra (15-May) : Zero, regarding Woodson, that'd why I find the timing with Williams peculiar
dfosterf (15-May) : Ryan Hall y'all does a great job of tracking thesr
Zero2Cool (15-May) : Fear not!! I planned to do 33mi bike ride tomorrow morning, so ... yeah
Zero2Cool (15-May) : We got some dark clouds and nasty winds right bout now.
Zero2Cool (15-May) : Madison they had hail 4pm.
dfosterf (15-May) : Sure looks like these tornadoes are headed towards Green Bay
Zero2Cool (15-May) : Woodson of Charles fame was reluctant and then loved it. that didn't really come out until post career
Mucky Tundra (15-May) : IE "We bought into the Bears and they let us down, we have no choice to seek alternatives"
Mucky Tundra (15-May) : Or that Williams and his family are preparing an exit ramp if they don't like how things are going in a few years
Mucky Tundra (15-May) : Either Williams thought it would make him look good (reluctant but then embraces the city and franchise)
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