I thought this was an interesting piece....NO FOOLING!!  Ron Wolf's quote at the end suggested a metric which was more damning, that is 3-4 starters out of every draft...I hope you find the article to be of interest.
Martha

Packers Talk Wrote:

Is the Packers GM Batting .300?
Posted on 04/02/2023 by Damon Sewell

Ron Wolf, the former Packers General Manager and Pro Football Hall of Famer, wrote in his book The Packer Way, “I once thought if we could hit .200 every year as far as adding new talent to our roster, we’d be doing a good job…Not anymore. Now, we had better hit .300 or higher if we want to stay competitive.” With Brian Gutekunst having been General Manager for the Green Bay Packers since 2018, this got me thinking. Is the Packers GM Batting .300 in the NFL Draft?

So, when looking into whether or not GM Gutekunst has been hitting .300 in the draft we will look into his first four drafts. We will not being using the 2022 draft in the equation because we don’t yet know enough about the class to determine whether or not those picks have truly been hits, although it is looking pretty good as of right now.

So let’s get started with Brian’s first draft, the 2018 NFL Draft:
2018
The 2018 NFL Draft started with a bang for the Green Bay Packers when they traded back with the Saints to acquire their 2019 1st round pick. The Packers then traded their fourth round pick to move back up and select Jaire Alexander. A definite hit! Here are the other selections from the 2018 class:

• 1st Round: CB Jaire Alexander
• 2nd Round: CB Josh Jackson
• 3rd Round: MLB Oren Burks
• 4th Round: WR J’Mon Moore
• 5th Round: OL Cole Madison
• 5th Round: P JK Scott
• 5th Round: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
• 6th Round: WR Equanimeous St. Brown
• 7th Round: DL James Looney
• 7th Round: LS Hunter Bradley
• 7th Round: Edge Kendall Donner

As you can see, outside of Jaire Alexander and MVS, this class was not very good. Matter of fact, I would only consider Jaire Alexander and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the hits. There were eleven draft picks and only two hits. This gives Brian a batting average of .182. Oof. Not very good. Well maybe 2019 was better!

2019
If you remember, because of the wizardry performed by Gutey at the beginning of the 2018 NFL Draft, the Packers found themselves with two first round picks: one at 12 and the other at the 30 (Saints played in the NFC Championship game). Well, Brian worked his magic again and used pick 30 and a couple of fourths to trade up to pick 21. How well did this draft do?

• 1st Round: Edge Rashan Gary
• 1st Round: S Darnell Savage
• 2nd Round: OG Elgton Jenkins
• 3rd Round: TE Jace Sternberger
• 5th Round: DE Kingsley Keke
• 6th Round: RB Dexter Williams
• 7th Round: MLB Ty Summers

This draft did happen to go much better than the 2018 NFL Draft. Rashan Gary has been great for the Packers and should definitely be receiving a nice payday soon enough. And the second round pick Elgton Jenkins has been a pro bowler and has already been extended by the Packers.

The question at hand, though, is what about Safety Darnell Savage? Was he a hit? In this scenario, I’m going to say yes. He has played a significant role for the Packers and in a few stretches has even looked good. His consistency is what is questionable for Savage. However, I still question whether or not the Packers had to trade up to get him. And if they would have stayed put at 30, they could have drafted WR Deebo Samuels with a fifth year option and kept those fourth round picks.

Oh well.

With fewer picks, Brian hit much better this time with three hits out of seven attempts. This gives Brian at batting average of .429, a great number that was definitely inflated due to having fewer picks. On to 2020 – what could go wrong?!

2020
The Packers, under new head Coach Matt LaFleur, made it all the way to the NFC Championship game. Rodgers wasn’t an MVP player but the team gelled in ways it hasn’t in a very long time. Eventually they succumbed to the killer of most Packers seasons, the 49ers run game. So you would think a player that could be used to stop the run would be drafted or maybe a receiver would be taken to get the offense over the hump. Nope. That is not what happened.

• 1st Round: QB Jordan Love
• 2nd Round: RB AJ Dillon
• 3rd Round: TE Josiah Deguara
• 5th Round: LB Kamal Martin
• 6th Round: OG Jon Runyon Jr.
• 6th Round: C Jake Hanson
• 6th Round: T Simon Stepaniak
• 7th Round: S Vernon Scott
• 7th Round: DE Jonathan Garvin

People have hated on the 2020 draft for the Green Bay Packers the moment Jordan Love was drafted. This draft is hard to see where Gutey has actually hit. For now, I am gonna call the Jordan Love pick a hit. It could definitely have been a miss. But the Packers have seen enough to feel confident enough to give him the reins in 2023. I have to trust that they have seen enough. Only time will tell the truth. Are there any other hits?

Short answer is yes. AJ Dillon has been a great back for the Packers since being drafted in 2020 and Jon Runyon as been great at guard. Josiah Deguara and Jonathan Garvin are the other question marks. Garvin has played what seems like a lot of football for the Packers and has gotten better. Deguara just hasn’t had opportunities. Will those opportunities increase with Love? We’ll find out, but for now I’m calling them misses.

So, in 2020, Brian Gutekunst hit on three players out of nine giving him a batting average of .333. Just above the .300 marker. However, if Jordan Love is not the answer, then it would be .222. Not good. Jordan Love could make or break the 2020 NFL Draft.

Finally, the 2021 NFL Draft.
2021
Chris Davis, formerly of the Houston Rangers and Baltimore Orioles, has the modern-day MLB record for lowest batting average in a season. He had a .168 batting average in 2018. Not good. Brian Gutekunst had a worst batting average in 2021.

• 1st Round: CB Eric Stokes
• 2nd Round: C Josh Myers
• 3rd Round: WR Amari Rodgers
• 4th Round: G Royce Newman
• 5h Round: DL Tederrell Slaton
• 5th Round: CB Shemar Jean-Charles
• 6th Round: OG Cole Van Lanen
• 6th Round: MLB Isaiah McDuffie
• 7th Round: RB Kylin Hill

Draft weekend in 2021 was tough for the Green Bay Packers. The news about Aaron Rodgers never wanting to play for the Packers again came on draft night and then the next several days were rough. It shows.

Eric Stokes and Josh Myers are the closest to being considered hits in this draft, and maybe they still could be. Eric Stokes had a fantastic rookie season followed up by a bad sophomore season that ended with a severe injury that could keep him out most of 2023.

Center Josh Myers was chosen one pick before all-pro center Creed Humphries. Josh Myers has been inconsistent to say the least, while Creed Humphries just won the Super Bowl with the Chiefs. I’m gonna call Myers a miss for now. Matter of fact, unless things do change for Eric Stokes, Josh Myers, and even to an extent Royce Newman, this entire draft was one big miss. That’s right: Brian Gutekunst batted a .000 in 2021. Well below Chris Davis in 2018. Not good.

Final Talley
So, what is Brian Gutekunst’s batting average for his first four NFL drafts? Drumroll please…
Gutey’s batting average is .236. That’s well below .300 that Ron Wolf was looking for. Well, to be honest, Wolf’s quote was only in regards to player acquisition. Maybe Wolf would be more lenient with the draft considering free agency is also an option.

“Now, if we have the normal seven selections, I feel we have to come away from every draft with at least three, if not four, potential starters– and they need to move into the lineup within a couple of years, if not sooner.” – Ron Wolf
Oh no.
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Part of me thinks that the trades of picks that were used to draft someone who was a bust should be included in the overall numbers.  I say we do a Packershome comparison of our desired draft pick and compare our success with the GM.  

I think the first issue is definding what you consider a hit or miss, as Love is a hit but Meyers is a miss? In what method is that consistent?

Also, when using the percentage method, it makes all picks equal, so if a team say has 4 picks in the 7th round (as the Packers currently do in 2023) missing in the 7th round is counted equally as missing in the 1st round.... why? I think we can all agree a 7th rounder is more likely to be a miss than than a 1st rounder. And this method of judging punishes those whom look for more quantity which quantity is important when trying to fill out 53 spots.



​​​​​​I much prefer to keep it simple with the method some GMs, I believe including GM Wolf, used to say.

Two good starters from a draft is you got a good draft. Three good starters from a draft is a great draft.

Now all you have to do is define good starter. 

But as of right now, Love is a bust... he might be a future Hall of Famer, but up to this point he's barely gotten on the field, I don't know how you can call that a hit and Myers a miss. Myers has actually been on the field a lot in comparison to Love.

I totally get questioning how good Myers is, as it seems like he's average starter at best so far, and we missed an All-Pros at the same position one spot behind him. That being said, he's been the better pick than Love (so far).


And I'll double down and say so far, UDFA ILB Barnes (Love's highschool teammate) and no longer with the Packers, so far was a better pick than Love (which Love might change that in one single season, but he hasn't done it yet).


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You're all reaching in who you call a bust. Like Garvin. What do you want for a 7th round pick? My god. 

Let's talk about some players acquired. Rasul. Add in Preston and Zadarius. Amos. 

Jordan Love a "bust?" Trying too hard to shit on Gutey. 

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First of all not all draft classes are created equal. Some drafts are loaded with talent. Other years, not so much.

Where a team drafts is also a factor. A team that has the 1st, 33rd, 65th and roughly 97th picks should have more "starters" than the team that drafts last in each round. (Too many comp picks to give an exact position.)

This is based on two reasons, first they have the higher selection and have a better chance to acquire the best players. Second, they have a lousy team and need more starters. A player drafted by GB in the first round such as Quay Walker AND Devonte Wyatt are more likely to sit for most of the snaps during the season. While players selected by the Jags and Lions, Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchinson, respectively HAVE to start. 

Finally as was said not every round is equal. Players selected in the 5th -7th rounds are not typically starters. The few who do start are unicorns. 3rd and 4th round players have less than a 50-50 chance of becoming a starter little alone a "good one".

Still it's a good discussion. One worth having in the down time between the SB and draft day.
 

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Guys have to be better to make our team.

To me, Gutey's weakness is in having the balls to go eye to eye against Aaron. They've been clogging our salary cap for years. I do like the move to draft Jordan, they seem to be doing well at developing him. But this ridiculous contract they gave to Aaron last year? That's a fail. 

Gutey can still turn that around and make it a win, but It's really impacting our cash flow. 

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If a team is expecting guys on day three to start, that's probably a weak team or rebuilding. You'd like one of, hopefully two starters or heavy snap contributors from rounds one through three into four.

Rounds 5, 6 and 7 are Wefense and projects. 
Rounds 1 and 2 you want a starter and or two players who can contribute by seasons end. 
Rounds 3 and 4 are depth but you might strike a starter. 

Expectations need to be established first. 

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Another stupid article.

He obviously took Ron Wolf's comment out of context.

Anybody with half a brain knows there is so much more than draft picks 

There is a reason that, by the end of most years, 40% of rosters are UDFA's.

Apprx 50% of 1st rnd picks never sign their 2nd contract with the team that drafted them.

The percentage gets worst from there.

Quick count for me 21 of 37 players drafted either starred, started, or were back ups that started at times .
The writer all but forgets about those players who played ST's.

To say that Gute has hit on only .236 of the time us just plain wrong!!

 

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Whoa, whoa. The article brings up a good discussion though about what draft expectations should be, or maybe could be. We can't really determine a grade on a draft if we don't determine how the drafts are graded. How many idiots put out their draft grades but don't articulate how they grade? What's worse is the people reading it don't even ask. They just drone on about the grade and complain. Says something about us doesn't it?

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It's a good discussion. Sometimes these guys will put that sort of shit out to troll homers.

I think it would be more interesting to rank each GM in each particular draft. Then maybe average a guy like Gutey's performances across several drafts. You'd have to control for injuries too. 

An abstract theoretical paradigm like that  is interesting, but that's putting dudes against some theoretical paradigm. Let's see them head to head. 

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Another thing is injuries. Terrance Murphy was an absolute stud. But he goes down as a bust, when at the time, he was a great pick. 

Derrick Sherrod. Mangled his freaking leg. You can't forsee that as a GM. If a guy has an extensive injury history and his diet is shit, such that he's not getting enough calcium, then maybe. But it's hard too see that coming. 

How hard a guy works coming back from an injury. Huge factor, but can't always be predicted. But a gut like Terence Murphy, he doesn't even get that opportunity to rehab. Jonathan Franklin too.. 

Thankfully, when Ted lost more than his fair share to injuries, he always had another guy who could step up. Bakhtiari, Eddie Lacy. Never replaced Nick Collins (couldn't afford Micah Hyde) or Jermichael Finley. Just thinking off the top of my head. 

Lost Terence Murphy, but drafted Greg Jennings, ended up with a deep WR group on the cover of Sports Illustrated.

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