NFL Draft 2022 Scouting Report: WR Christian Watson, No. Dakota State
The story of Watson’s rise to prospect prominence is (currently) painted as ‘he had a great Combine (because he ran a 4.36 40-time) at his size (6’4”/208), so teams are chasing him up their draft boards’.
There’s much more to it than that…but it is true, Watson has gone from a late day three draft prospect to day two prospect, with 1st-round/day one whispers in some places since the Combine. It’s a little strange to think that Watson has rocketed up draft boards…just because he ran fast at the Combine – a lot of guys ran fast at the Combine…and some of them are tall, like Watson. It can’t just be ‘size and speed’; not in 2022.
It isn’t the full story. The developing situation goes back earlier than the Combine.
It wasn’t about his great FCS play/career. He was good for North Dakota State, not ‘wow’ (statistically) in the FCS…if scouts were amazed at his production or tape at NDSU, then he wouldn’t have been a later invitee to the Senior Bowl, and he wouldn’t have been a #200-400 ranked prospect all over the place inJanuary. No, this story really changed at/after the Senior Bowl.
Watson was just another good-looking, hopeful, skeptical FCS WR prospect going into the Senior Bowl week but came out of the week with a whole different perspective – and I can attest to it first-hand, and my thoughts on what Watson was doing in Mobile were confirmed after the practice week.
I was intrigued with Watson from my pre-Combine preview scouting. Nice size, nice movement
skills…but I needed more study time to see if he was just another decently athletic FCS WR taking advantage of non-D1 type DBs, and his numbers were not all that impressive = 43-800-7 in 12 games (2021) for an FCS powerhouse…numbers not really screaming out ‘star’. But my mood changed on him each day of the Senior Bowl week.
One of the things that stood out to me from the practice week was how the QBs were responding to/working with Watson. Before I mention that key thing, I have to note that Watson did fine in one-onones and 7-on-7, etc., but they all (WRs) can look good in those drills, but when it gets to 11-on-11 and then the game itself…that’s when everything is a cluster, with these all-stars barely knowing each other, no time to really get the playbook or get timing down between QBs-and-WRs.
In that mayhem (for the QBs), with a real-ish pass rush coming and a congested field, the QBs on Watson’s team (Pickett, Ridder, Strong) would typically look/force the ball to Watson over all the other options – in crisis, not being able to trust things breaking down all around them…their heads were looking towards Watson, their desperation throws tended to go to Watson… especially in red zone/end zone drills. Watson had the respect of his all-star QBs in just 1-2-3 days of working together – and Watson tended to make the plays/catches when the ball was near him to catch. I made note of this unusual development…the lesser-lauded FCS WR was ‘the guy’ for his team, and I think that says something.
After the week of practices, the cornerbacks vote on the ‘best WR’ for the practice week – and to no surprise it was Christian Watson as the top vote getter for his team…beating out five D1 WRs for the honor. Watson accounted for himself well at the Senior Bowl…changed his future earning power/draft stock.
There was just something about Watson. NFL team’s observing noticed it too. The Watson draft rise started in Mobile but got some more rocket fuel with his 4.36 40-time at the NFL Combine.
Only 10 WRs in my system ever ran a sub-4.4 40-time at 6’3” or taller, and 200 or more pounds…
Tyrone Calico
Calvin Johnson
Matt Jones (QB turned WR)
Chaz Schilens
Javon Walker
Randy Moss
Stephen Hill
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
D.K. Metcalf
…and now Christian Watson.
Watson also registered a 1.46 10-yard dash. Only Schilens and Metcalf can claim a sub-1.48 10-yard from the group above (of 10) with Watson. Watson’s size and Combine timed get-off are pretty historically ‘wow’.
Some guys test well at the Combine, but then you can’t really see that speed on the field. That’s where Watson also gets my attention – I see the speed on tape is real. There really is a 6’4”+ guy who has elite speed available in this draft…the speed is real. He efficiently runs by DBs with ease. He reminds me of former Arkansas QB turned NFL WR for the draft, Matt Jones, in that manner…it doesn’t look like he’s moving that fast, but then he’s just flying by people like he’s jogging and they seem to be standing still pursuing this optical illusion, this UFO type movement.
Why didn’t Watson have better college output numbers if he can run by people so well… especially given the FCS level of play? Well, that’s a great question. I think it’s a bit like the problem Northern Iowa Combine stud Isaiah Weston had – he can speed his way open, but can these QBs actually throw it to him/connect with him on deep balls? The answer is…not really, not often enough. Their flimsy QBs tended to wanna throw screen passes or dump it short, not wanting to hang in the pocket for a deep route to develop…and when they do go for it they either radically under or over throw it to the WR having a step or five on coverage.
Watson could get open medium and deep…he showed very good hands…he just didn’t get enough targets/connections, like the problem Tyrell Williams in college – the team took for granted their ability to go deep and command attention and they loved the open space these speedster WRs left behind for easy throws underneath because the deep speedster took a corner or corner + safety with them deep.
It’s nice for the team, and helps hide the QB’s deficiencies, but doesn’t help the speedster’s number production. Watson is a little different than the Isaiah Weston situation. Weston looked passive and content to be that deep ball or nothing guy. Watson has a little more air of ‘get me the ball’ to him. Watson took 49 rushes for NDSU in his three seasons of starting, for 392 yards rushing (8.0 ypc) and 2 TDs. He returned kicks his last two seasons…21 returns, 2 house calls/TDs. Watson’s talent demanded the ball…and they put him in positions to get it, just not so great getting him the ball enough as a deep threat WR…wasted as a deep ball guy too much (my opinion).
Watson showed at the Senior Bowl that he has more tools than just ‘deep ball guy’. However, I think he has one flaw – he’s not great moving east-west. Get him going sideways and he’s human/OK. Watson doesn’t have a great side-to-side quick cut ability, but let him open up moving straight ahead and he’s,dare I say, ‘special’. Watson won’t be a Davante Adams pitch & catch WR who beats everyone off the snap with his quick feet/moves. He’s not a Michael Thomas or Keenan Allen short game master/grinder – you want Watson to sprint, to open up, to keep his feet moving…a la D.K. Metcalf.
Watson has a chance to be a star…because he has that special gift for the deep ball, and at his size, he’s not a little DeSean Jackson or Brandon Cooks deep ball master…he’s 6’4+, and that’s what makes him super-intriguing for the NFL. Get him an accurate downfield QB and Watson may be a skinnier version (with room to add 5+ pounds of muscle) of Ja’Marr Chase or D.K. Metcalf, but taller/longer than them…an advantage going deep.
There’s a real prospect here…one whose main gift might make him an NFL star, despite not being as well-rounded as some other WRs available. Arguably, Watson has none equal to him in terms of ‘deep ball threat’ in this draft…or in the past few drafts, because of the height/reach advantage on top of the REAL speed. Maybe George Pickens can give him a run for his deep ball prowess money (but Pickens is a sensational all-over WR on top of everything else).
Watson is a very pleasant, humble, smart person in interviews. He’s also confident…but not arrogant, he didn’t wilt among the D1 guys and the scene at the Senior Bowl or Combine. He made some honor rolls at NDSU as well, so he’s no dummy either. No issues detected off the field. A really nice prospect here is developing but will likely be downgraded because of his ‘FCS’ background.
He shouldn’t be.