“If I only had a defense” has been a mantra of many an elite NFL quarterback. It’s a mantra Green Bay Packers fans have been repeating ever since 2010. That is, until now.
Against the likes of Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson the past three weeks, the Green Bay defense has allowed a total of 34 points. You’d have to travel back to 2015 to find a three-game stretch where they allowed 34 or fewer points — and that particular stretch came against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Chargers, who finished the season 32nd, 29th and 26th in scoring, respectively.
It is safe to say that this recent defensive surge is unprecedented for the post-Super Bowl Packers. And it shouldn't be the case, at least on paper.
This is a team that has lost arguably its best two defenders in Za’Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander, two players who dramatically impact opposing passing attacks. Yet, the Packers have allowed all of 593 passing yards and a 61.9 passer rating the past three games.
So how have they done it? By becoming a pass-first defense. Or, more accurately, by becoming a downfield-pass-first defense.
Former defensive coordinator Mike Pettine was already a pass-first coach, and he built a defense hell-bent on stopping quick passes and RPOs. A year ago, the Packers allowed only 89 passing yards on RPOs all season long, but they also got routinely gashed down the football field and struggled to tackle underneath.
It was a defense that was trending in the right direction, with Pettine transitioning away from his patented single-high looks, but it didn’t go far enough in its approach.
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You see, the strength of this Packers defense lies directly up the middle of the field. Nose tackle Kenny Clark, safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell have been the Packers' four best defenders this season. And what new defensive coordinator Joe Barry has done is develop a defense that features all four.
For Campbell, that means giving him the freedom to be “the man” in the defense.
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No longer hampered by the rigorous assignments that most schemes require from the secondary linebacker, Campbell’s naturally freakish athleticism has taken over.
You can see an example of that below. On the play, the Packers have seven box defenders responsible for blocking what could be up to nine gaps if the jet motion adds on as a run-blocker. That means they need someone up front to make up that difference. Campbell lines up in the backside A-gap but gets all the way out to the play side C-gap to make the play because he has free range to hunt.
This is a big reason why his overall grade has jumped from 49.0 to 84.6, the highest in the NFL this season.
The 6-foot-4, 232-pounder has consistently been one of the best tacklers in the NFL, but now he’s got carte blanche to get to more tackles than ever before. On 83 tackle attempts this season, he has missed all of three.
The autonomy that Campbell plays with is largely due to the removal of safeties in run support. Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos are coverage players first and run defenders second in Joe Barry's defense. Instead of adding on for run fits, they operate more like a cap on big runs. Last season, the two combined for 21 run stops. Through 10 games this year, that number is three.
Unsurprisingly, the “downfield-pass-first” defense has done exactly what it’s designed to do. Just look at the splits on passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield from this season compared to last season.
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Taking the safeties out of run fits makes them not only far less susceptible to play-action passes — Green Bay allowed 0.109 EPA per play on play-action passes in 2020 but has given up just 0.009 EPA per play in 2021 — but it also allows them to provide more reliable help to their depleted cornerback group.
In single-high defenses, one safety usually functions as a middle-field placeholder while the other has a run fit and an underneath-coverage responsibility. In the concepts the Packers often run, they are legitimately much more equipped to help their cornerbacks on the fly. You can see exactly how that plays out here on this play-action pass against the Chiefs from the Packers' quarters look.
In the play above, Amos is the closest safety to the line of scrimmage at 11 yards deep. That is already surprising, considering the relatively heavy two-tight end formation the Chiefs have lined up with.
Amos and Savage do not move toward the line of scrimmage as quarterback Patrick Mahomes extends the ball to his running back and instead can immediately get eyes on the developing routes and assignments. The result is rookie cornerback Eric Stokes having safety help on a dig-route that wouldn’t exist in a traditional single-high defense vs. a run fake.
The removal of Amos and Savage has come at almost no hit to their run defense because they have better tacklers making those plays. Green Bay has missed the fewest tackles (53) and has the lowest missed tackle rate (9%) of any team in the league.
All the principles above are incredibly sound and backed by data. It’s why Green Bay’s recent dominance is no fluke and could get even scarier when it's back to full strength.
The Packers aren’t the only ones riding the new wave of two-high looks proliferating around the NFL, but they are doing it with arguably the best personnel up the middle of the field.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-green-bay-packers-defense-2021
Michael Renner wrote: