How the Rams can beat the Packers
1. Run the ball with efficiency out of 12 and 11 personnel
Rookie running back Cam Akers looked like a veteran in the wild-card win over the Seahawks, rushing for 131 yards and a score on 28 carries. That's good volume for a back with second-level juice. And I believe the Rams will be even more run-heavy in this matchup.
Look for coach Sean McVay to mix his personnel with one- and two-tight end sets, using inside/outside zone and gap schemes. Behind an offensive line that can create movement off the ball, that will open clean lanes for Akers to get up on the Packers' linebackers versus both base and sub-package fronts. And with that run-game efficiency, McVay can set up quarterback Jared Goff with clean platform throws off play-action against the Packers' zone coverages.
2. Close the throwing windows to Packers WR Davante Adams
We know defensive coordinator Brandon Staley's defense will scheme pressure and pass-rush one-on-ones for Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd out of multiple fronts, getting some heat on Aaron Rodgers in the pocket. But let's not forget about the zone coverages in Staley's system and the elements that cater to star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Rams led the NFL during the regular season in Quarters coverage snaps (19.0%), and they also played a bunch of Cover 3 (25.4%). Expect to see a lot of both on Saturday, with the safeties cutting the crossers to Adams from an inside Quarters alignment or as a "robber" in three-deep.
When Adams does align as the boundary X receiver to the backside of 3x1 sets, the Rams will play Quarters "lock," which puts Ramsey in a man-technique situation against him. Winning the man matchup there frees your zone safety to go look for work. And don't be surprised if Ramsey gets some nickel reps this week, matching in quarters when Adams aligns inside.
How the Packers can beat the Rams
1. Move the pocket with Rodgers
In addition to varying the alignments for Adams -- both outside the numbers and in the slot -- I would really focus on moving the pocket for Rodgers against the Rams' defensive front. Yes, Rodgers will still throw quick-game passes, and the Packers can still scheme verticals on defined concepts in coach Matt LaFleur's system. Plus, Rodgers will take the one-on-ones when they are there.
But with boot and play-action (off pre-snap misdirection), the Packers can force the L.A. defensive front to work parallel to the line of scrimmage. And that gets Rodgers to the edge, where he has completed 82.9% of his passes and posted a QBR of 98.3 on designed rollouts this season. Give me boot flood and boot cross against the Rams' staple coverages.
2. Make Goff play outside of structure
I see Goff as a programmed thrower in McVay's system, in both play-action and dropback situations. By that, I mean timing throws with scripted voids to attack. When Goff has to go outside of the play structure, he can struggle. And because of that, I would bring some simulated pressure at Goff on Saturday and use interior stunts.
The idea is to muddy up the pocket and force him to reset his throwing window while also disrupting the timing of the process. Get bodies at his feet, with second-level defenders playing to depth in the Packers' split-safety zone schemes. You can't give Goff time -- or second-level windows -- to throw the in-breakers.
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