Can The Packers Trade Aaron Rodgers? If So, When?
By Thegreatreynoldo
Apr 24, 2020
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The Packers selected Jordan Love by moving up from the 30th pick to number 26. Many folks think a good model for reaching a super bowl is to have an inexpensive quarterback starting for the team. Aaron Rodgers is not inexpensive, so when could the Packers release or trade Rodgers?
2020: Straight Trade/Release - NO!
If traded today, Rodgers has $51.148M in dead money charges that would accelerate onto the 2020 cap. Since his current cap number is $21.642M, the Packers' cap space would shrink by $29.506M. The team has insufficient cap space to absorb that kind of dead money charge. It would be illegal. The team has about $11M in cap space, but about $5.5M has to be used to pay for the practice squad, the 52nd and 53rd players, and to sign their draft picks.
To generate the necessary cap space, Green Bay would have to trade David Bakhtiari and Davante Adams, which gains $20.75M. Still short, the team could trade Corey Linsley to gain $8.5M more. That would be $29.25M, still short, but close enough with the team's current cap space.
Otherwise, after trading Bakhtiari and Adams, the team could trade or release Lane Taylor to get $4M in cap space and then restructure Preston Smith to gain roughly $5M. The Packers cannot get much cap relief by restructuring ZaDarius Smith or really anyone else.
2020: Post June Trade - YES
$1.964M cap savings in 2020*. The Packers would have to take $14.352M in a signing bonus proration and $5.24M for the roster bonus just paid as dead money charges in 2020. That would result in $1.964M in cap saving for 2020. It leaves a dead money charge in 2021 of $31.556M. Since Rodgers' scheduled cap number for 2021 is $36.352M, the team would have $4.796M more in cap space than overthecap is currently projecting for 2021. Note with Covid-19, the expected increase in the salary cap is problematic.
2020 Positional Spending: $53.548M with an immediate trade. [The Packers would have to divert large resources already committed to other positions.] Jordon Love's cap number should be about $2.4M plus the $51.148M dead for Rodgers. For my own safety (so my head does not explode), I am going to simplify the rest. With an immdiate trade, it would be $2.4M plus $51.148M for Rodgers and probably $752K for Boyle (if not more should the Packers decide a veteran backup is necessary). That's adds up to $53.548M.
2020 Positional Spending would be $22.744M with a June trade. Rodgers would count $19.592M, Love about $2.4M, and Boyle $752K, which adds up to $22.744M for 2020 (with that pesky $31M dead money charge in 2021).
2021: Immediate Trade in February or March: YES
The Packers would gain $4.79M in cap space and have no dead money in 2022. That is after taking a $31.56M dead money charge but offsetting it against Rodgers' $36.352M scheduled cap number.
Post June trade: $15.2M in cap saving for 2021* with a $17.204M dead charge for 2022. If Rodgers agreed to defer payment of his $6.8M roster bonus until after June (and the acquiring team agreed to pay it all), then the cap savings would be $22M. Rodgers has a $6.8M roster bonus due March 15.
Positional Spending: $34.46M in 2021 with an immediate trade. That is $31.56M for Rodgers, plus perhaps $2.9M for Love. Boyle would be an RFA, and his salary, either the tender or a negotiated salary that is less than the tender, should be added (or the cost of a veteran backup) to QB positional spending.
It is $17.25M with a post June trade (with a $17.202M dead money charge in 2022). Rodgers would have a $14.352M dead money cap hit (not counting the $17.2M dead in 2022), plus Love's $2.9M hit. [This is the first year Green Bay could divert money from the quarterback position to shore up other positions, but it only is possible with a June trade.]
2022: Immediate Trade - YES. Post June Trade - YES
$22.648M in cap savings in 2022 with no dead money charge in 2023. A post June trade would generate $25M* in cap saving with a $2.85M dead money charge in 2023.
*Add $500K to the post June cap savings in each year if the acquiring team pays Rodgers' workout bonus. Workout bonuses are usually earned by early June and paid shortly thereafter. Here, the trade would be official June 2nd, but Rodgers would still have to pass a physical, and who knows when that might be, especially in 2020.
Positional Spending: $17.752M plus an unknown amount for a backup or two. That is $3.4M for Love and $$14.352M +$2.85M dead for Rodgers. in 2023).
Year Cap Savings Pos. Spending
2020 Now -$29.506M $53.548M
2020 June +$1.964M $22.744 + $31M dead
2021 March +$4.79M $34.46M + backup
2021 June +15.20M/$22M $17.25M + $17.2 dead + vet?
2022 March +22.648M $20.602M No dead + backups
2022 June +$25.0M $17.75M + $2.85M dead in 2023
The Packers would not have a really cheap quarterback position until 2023 when Love would have about a $4M salary cap number. Love would be on his fifth year option in 2024 which is considerably less useful under the new CBA. With a Pro Bowl or two, he might earn the transition tag number. Drafting Love really does not make too much sense from a pure cap perspective if the model is paying one's quarterback around or less than 4% of the salary cap and using that money to buy free agents.