With Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson signing record contracts in the last couple years, we've seen a lot of hand wringing over how much QBs are making. If we squint at the raw figures, it sure seems like a lot - but the cap has gone up quite a bit in the last 10 years, so are these contracts really out of line?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lQgCnyr8R6Evb9ht6cCm2lu5Z-NLYKgPK8zDZRS05lg/edit?usp=sharing 

Notable highlights:

4/10 SB winners had cap hits of over 10%. Only 1 had a cap hit below 6.6%.

The average cap space for all QBs that played in the super bowl was 8.6%. Only 5/20 had cap percentages below 5% - Russell Wilson twice, Jared Goff, and two QBs that started the season as backups: Colin Kaepernick & Nick Foles. Nick Foles' cap hit skyrocketed the next year due to the way his contract was structured.

80% of the QBs had a hit of at least 4.3%. Half had a cap hit over 10% (there was an even split between the winners and losers).

Super Bowl losing QBs were paid slightly more (9.1% vs 8.1%).

Tom Brady had the highest cap hit for winning QBs with 12.4 in 2018. Peyton Manning had the highest for the losers with 17.2% (!).

So, let's look at some myths.

QBs are making too much money these days, you can't win with one player taking up so much cap space.

This is demonstrably false. In fact, most teams that win or get to the super bowl devote a big chunk of the cap to their QB. Teams with elite QBs tend to win super bowls. Additionally, paying a lot of money to franchise QBs is nothing new, as is clearly evident in the data. The cap goes up, salaries go up, it's as simple as that.

The new trend is cheap QBs on rookie contracts.

The only example of a QB on a rookie contract winning the SB since the new rookie wage scale took effect is Russell Wilson, who had an especially low cap number being taken in the 3rd round. This is an aberration, not a trend, and has been corrected with Wilson's 2nd and 3rd contracts. Had the Rams won last year, Goff got paid 7.6 million dollars, cheap for elite QBs, but not exactly a bargain basement contract.

The Eagles sort of qualify here as well, given that Carson Wentz was their starter, and they didn't pay Nick Foles much since he was the backup. However, this is a pretty odd situation that is unlikely to be repeated in the near future.

Aaron Rodger's new contract is totally crazy and the Packers are screwed.

Aaron Rodger's cap hit was 11.3% last year. This is par for the course for an elite QB, and half of the QBs who made it to the SB in the last 10 years had a similar cap hit. I'm not sure what his cap hit will be in the next few years, and certainly, if he starts to suck it will look bad, but so far it looks like the going market rate rather than any sort of extravagance.

---

People are worth whatever someone is willing to pay them. If someone is willing to pay another 1 million dollars to dig a ditch, that is what the digger is worth. If a team pays a lot for a player, they should realise that that players portion of the overall pie lessens the amount left to pay others. The value of an all star Pitcher or a QB or Hockey Goalie can extend beyond just a roster. A great player can put fans in the seats, sell jerseys/team products, as well as elevate the play of their fellow teammates.

Is it right to pay people large amounts of money, they would not do it if they thought it was a poor investment.

---

"Aaron Rodger's new contract is totally crazy and the Packers are screwed."
.Well I guess there is no reason to watch the next 4 years.

The NFL wants parody

The salary cap is in place to create parody.

Teams are not suppose to make the playoffs more than 5 years in a row.

The NFL likes it when there is an average of a 6 team turnover every year in the playoffs.

I remember when Brett Favre signed his 100mil contract.
He was the highest paid player for about a week.
Drew Bledsoe signed his contract eclipsing Favre's
You can't blame the players, the money is there

The Packers still had plenty of room to sign 4 solid FA's

I think there is a 50/50 chance Aaron plays out this contract in Green Bay.

Some desparate team will spend the house on him in a couple of years.

This is todays NFL.

---

I think players union is failing the players by allowing these massive contracts without having a massive pension plan with insurance for retired players. With how much the NFL brings in annually, there is absolutely no reason any NFL player (of certain amount of playing years) should have issues with medical costs of any kind during their life time. The players union should demand 10% at least put away into a pension of some sort for retired players. And that 10% gets split between owners and players portions, five percent each.

---

Brady doesn't constantly demand enormous pay. How's his team working out? I heard they were pretty good. 😎

---

This is somewhat of a misnomer. It's true that Tom Brady has rarely been the highest paid player. But he's generally among the highest paid, and his 4 trips to the SB in the last 10 years have come at above average cap hits vs the other QBs who have made it to the game.

So while Brady may be willing to forgo the extra cash he could make on the open market to stay in NE and win more SBs, the fact remains that he takes a big chunk of NE's cap, and they still manage to win. Again, the highest cap hit for a SB winning QB in the last 10 years was paid to... drum roll please... Tom Brady.

Let's look at the numbers for Rodgers VS Brady. Brady is only under contract for 2019, so we can't compare future earnings, so let's look at the last 3 years:

Rodgers:
2017: 20.3m
2018: 20.9m
2019: 26.5m
Total: 67.7m

Brady:
2017: 14m
2018: 22m
2019: 27m
Total: 63m

Brady's "team friendly" contract here means NE devoted 4.7m less over 3 years, or 1.5m a year. That might get you a journeyman backup guard or a couple UDFAs in today's market, hardly the sort of cap savings that will make or break a team.

Rodger's number jumps to 32.6m next year, which seems somewhat high, but we'll have to wait and see what the cap is. If Brady decides to sign another contract, it's a safe bet that his salary will go up as well.

---

He moves money around as needed tho. It's not just the raw numbers.

---

Can you provide specific examples here?

And who is to say Rodgers will not be willing to do the same? He was playing on a below market contract for a while so there wasn't really a need to do so. But with him taking a bigger chunk of the cap these days (and into the future) it's certainly possible that we will see similar moves.

---

How could anyone know whether or not Rodgers would be unwilling to adjust his pay? The assertion that he would not is unverifiable. Further, if I were Rodgers, I would only agree to do it with and for whom I thought would really help.

And please don't default to the "he is running the team" argument....its his contract, therefore his money to spend.

Has he done so yet?

---