it's hard to imagine the Packers couldn't find 1 or even 2 guys to match his recent production with the 11 mil they'd save.
Originally Posted by: musccy
Funny thing: upon reading this I agreed and set out to respond by transforming our "imagining" into reality. But, after research I did a complete 180, we were wrong; this is pie in the sky thinking!
13.75 mil for 5 sacks and 24 tackles / 1 sack, 3 tackles in the playoffs is a bargain?!?
I'm still holding out hope that 2016's lack of production was his shoulder as you alluded to, but with a history of hamstring injuries and a 15 mil cap hit next year it's becoming increasingly difficult to justify his contract.
Originally Posted by: musccy
"Justifying his contract" and looking at cap number in this instance is a
non sequitur. GB is faced with the single reality of what to do with Clay's 2017 money due of 10.975M. Then as a side consideration the 11.4M due in 2018 [This is also his Cap #; Cap=Cashin 2018]. So GB has to decide to pay or not pay 11M in 2017; and if we pay, a separate independent decisions can be made whether to pay 11.4 M or cut with no dead money in 2018. If he's cut, the opportunity for the decision to keep him for 11M in 2018 is gone.
The vocal minority always shouts stuff: like Ted wont improve MD Jennings era safeties, the ILBs, etc., well duh! The REALITY is Ted did the best anyone could. Ted has to deal w/ a Cap and a competing world with 31 other GMs. He cant create REALITY by just typing “all in” or “Yes! Von Miller at ROLB” in a forum and then bitch like a little baby when we lose in Champ game. Ted must be evaluated against REALITY, not a theoretical idealistic alternative factual Kellyanne Conway Spicer NFL.
Another reality is we need 4 solid OLBs and right now we got Clay, Fackrell and Gilbert. I like Gilbert BTW. One thing I do with these late round/UDFA guys that flash is watch their college tape [by watching him on tape of draftable mates or draftable opposing in this case, OLmen] and see if I can see a leap. Gilbert was infinitely better in his preseason snaps than college snaps. Another leap like that and he’ll make the 53.
Facing these realities, if Clay’s cut, our starters are Gilbert and Fackrell and ILBs are back-ups. We NEED to replace him; but we cant replace him for 11M!!!! We can get someone better for 15M [Kerrigan-type] or 20 Million [Houston-type]; or we can pay 12M and get someone worse [Collins-type] or pay 9M and get someone substantially worse [Irvin, Hughes types] or take a $9M gamble on an unproven with upside [McPhee-types].
But if you pay, for example, 15M for a Kerrigan-type, the actual changing of teams will cause him more likely than not to cease being a Kerrigan–type; and you pay 15M for something no better or worse than Clay.
Last year's stats mean nothing accept how they project to 2017; but sacks and tackle stats are almost meaningless. In the 1st half of Atl game with an AC joint, he had 4 pressures [3 on Cousin Matthews; 1 up A gap]; 2 of these pressures led to passes that should have been picked. And he came close several other times. He was doubled once, and chipped about half dozen times. He was assignment sure and stout in holding the edge and made three nice moves crashing inside, one that led to a run stop. He dropped into coverage half dozen times; once blanketing Sanu on single coverage 20 yards downfield. Over 16 games that extrapolates to 32 tackles and 0 sacks; but his 1st half Atl. play was well worth $15M.
Is he playing up to $11M per level? It doesn't matter, he's better than all you get for 9-12M. So by definition he's a bargain at 11M. And if the cap goes up another 18% next year; his 2018-11M will look 18% better that his 2017-11M. 2 years at 11M per is a substantial bargain. And in 2018 we have 100% injury and performance protection, this make his 11M in 2018 a super bargain.