Here's a snippet from Silver's article this morning.
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Old Logic: The Packers will defeat the Chargers in Super Bowl XLIII. OK, that was my logic.
New Logic: Well, lets see: The Chargers are 3-5 and just fired their defensive coordinator in the middle of the season, and the 4-4 Packers are about to play what could turn out to be a must-win game at Minnesota. Its tempting to claim temporary insanity, cut my losses and come up with two new teams. In my heart, however, Im only halfway there. San Diego, scarily, still has a very good chance of winning the AFC West, if only because the first-place Broncos are approximating the trajectory of the U.S. economy. Yet Ive seen enough of the Chargers flaws exposed to conclude that a dramatic playoff run would be highly unlikely. Given that I spent all of last season extolling the Titans virtues, long before they emerged as a surprising playoff team, I dont feel all that sheepish about jumping on 8-0 Tennessee as my revised choice to win the AFC.
As for the Pack well, Im not quite ready to let go. Certainly, the 7-1 Giants are the class of the NFC at this point, and they will be very tough to beat as they attempt to defend their championship. Green Bay, conversely, might not even make it to the postseason. But I still have this suspicion that the Packers, coming off an overtime defeat to the Titans, are getting it together and have a run in them. Halfback Ryan Grant is finally starting to show flashes of last seasons form, and Aaron Rodgers is getting more and more comfortable as he fights through a painful shoulder injury. So Im sticking with my Packers pick at least for another week and looking forward to a Green Bay-Tennessee rematch in Tampa come February.