earthquake
9 years ago

Even the guys who do that the most only actually do it a handful of times a year and even Lacy is good for a couple. "taking it to the house on any given play" is more of a myth than anything. Give me a guy whose getting it done on 90% of his 800 snaps than just making a big play on 2% of them.

Originally Posted by: steveishere 



I was curious so I looked at that stats, in terms of breaking long runs Lacy isn't on par with the best in the league, that's for sure. Here's a random sample:

Barry Sanders
20+ 4.4%
40+ 1.6%

Adrian Peterson
20+ 4.5%
40+ 1.4%

Jamaal Charles
20+ 3.7%
40+ 1.2%

Demarco Murray
20+ 3.7%
40+ 1.0%

Eddie Lacy
20+ 2.0%
40+ 0.5%

Interesting notes, Peterson breaks a lot of 20-40 yard runs, probably more than any other back in the league (I didn't extensively research this), but even then, Jamaal Charles has a better career average (5.5 vs 5.0 yards), which means Charles is a more consistent back, constantly getting positive yards, while Peterson likely has a lot more negative or 0-2 yard runs.

The 40+ numbers are interesting as well, none of these guys breaks 40 yard runs more than 1.6% of the time. Peterson at 1.4% breaks on average 4 40+ runs a season, or once every 4 games.

For perspective, Aaron Rodgers throws a 20+ yard pass 10.7% of the time (53 times a season), and a 40+ pass 2.2% of the time (12.5 times a season). If you want someone to "take it to the house" you use the passing game, not the running game.

Lacy's stats have the smallest sample size which may not be entirely representative, though he's been a starter essentially since he's been drafted and RB's typically have good numbers when young.
blank
Barfarn
9 years ago
I love Lacy. The perfect teammate and a great man; he’s 100% about the team. And you can keep your Petersons and Murrays; Lacey is a complete back; though he’s not as “dangerous” a back as those others. When players see him go in beast mode; it makes every other player on both D and O play just a bit harder.

But here’s the reality. Signing Lacy means we lose someone else; it’s not just about having Lacy; its about having Lacey and Boyd or a not injured Starks-like RB and Daniels.

Long ago, Ted and I learned to devalue RBs; their cap cost was way out of whack with their importance to winning football games; especially with rules favoring passing. And ya can get a good one in rounds 4-UDFA of any draft. It’s only in the last few years the rest of the league has now come around to our plateau of thinking.

It is 100% against TT’s and my religion [and sounds like against Tex's too, LOL] to pay a RB; but dammit if there’s an exception, it’s gotta be Lacy. Perhaps his mileage [beast mode runners rarely last as long as Lynch] and asthma might keep the $$ down might make a hometown discount palatable. If he practiced in, for example, AZ, and came to an icy GB on game day; his asthma would wreck his ability to produce.
nerdmann
9 years ago

I love Lacy. The perfect teammate and a great man; he’s 100% about the team. And you can keep your Petersons and Murrays; Lacey is a complete back; though he’s not as “dangerous” a back as those others. When players see him go in beast mode; it makes every other player on both D and O play just a bit harder.

But here’s the reality. Signing Lacy means we lose someone else; it’s not just about having Lacy; its about having Lacey and Boyd or a not injured Starks-like RB and Daniels.

Long ago, Ted and I learned to devalue RBs; their cap cost was way out of whack with their importance to winning football games; especially with rules favoring passing. And ya can get a good one in rounds 4-UDFA of any draft. It’s only in the last few years the rest of the league has now come around to our plateau of thinking.

It is 100% against TT’s and my religion [and sounds like against Tex's too, LOL] to pay a RB; but dammit if there’s an exception, it’s gotta be Lacy. Perhaps his mileage [beast mode runners rarely last as long as Lynch] and asthma might keep the $$ down might make a hometown discount palatable. If he practiced in, for example, AZ, and came to an icy GB on game day; his asthma would wreck his ability to produce.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



Pay him for who he is and what he means to the team.

Anyway, he might only last 4 years anyway, it's a position with a short half life. Especially given his running style.

Ted knows how to work contracts though. I wouldn't be shocked to see a renegotiation before the contract is up. Ted's contracts always look like blockbuster deals when they're signed, but as always, two years later they look like bargain basement deals.
“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don't do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”
DarkaneRules
9 years ago
Only thing stopping this monster is his asthma. Lacy is the real deal and one of Ted's best draft picks.
Circular Arguments: They are a heck of an annoyance
beast
9 years ago

Lacy 40 time : 4.44
Starks 40 time : 4.5

Lacy in two seasons has a long of 60 yards
Starks in five seasons has a long of 41 yards


I thought Starks had the speed to go 50+ yard runs and that's just not in the cards for him. He's pretty much a plodder and punishing back who has nice cut backs.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



Scoure on Lacy running a 4.44 time is?

In my mind there is no way the Eddie Lacy I've seen in the NFL runs a sub 4.5.

NFL DRAFT SCOUT has Lacy 40 yard pro day time as 4.64
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=89659&draftyear=2013&genpos=RB 

Starks doesn't have great speed but he's faster than Lacy and can and has gotten to the outside better and more effectively than Lacy. That being said Starks isn't great at it and the shortest path between two points is a straight line and Lacy is better at going straight up the middle and he's great at breaking tackles which when combined gets him further than Starks.


UserPostedImage
gbguy20
9 years ago

I was curious so I looked at that stats, in terms of breaking long runs Lacy isn't on par with the best in the league, that's for sure. Here's a random sample:

Barry Sanders
20+ 4.4%
40+ 1.6%

Adrian Peterson
20+ 4.5%
40+ 1.4%

Jamaal Charles
20+ 3.7%
40+ 1.2%

Demarco Murray
20+ 3.7%
40+ 1.0%

Eddie Lacy
20+ 2.0%
40+ 0.5%

Interesting notes, Peterson breaks a lot of 20-40 yard runs, probably more than any other back in the league (I didn't extensively research this), but even then, Jamaal Charles has a better career average (5.5 vs 5.0 yards), which means Charles is a more consistent back, constantly getting positive yards, while Peterson likely has a lot more negative or 0-2 yard runs.

The 40+ numbers are interesting as well, none of these guys breaks 40 yard runs more than 1.6% of the time. Peterson at 1.4% breaks on average 4 40+ runs a season, or once every 4 games.

For perspective, Aaron Rodgers throws a 20+ yard pass 10.7% of the time (53 times a season), and a 40+ pass 2.2% of the time (12.5 times a season). If you want someone to "take it to the house" you use the passing game, not the running game.

Lacy's stats have the smallest sample size which may not be entirely representative, though he's been a starter essentially since he's been drafted and RB's typically have good numbers when young.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



Peterson's numbers being lower than charles are a direct result of the idiot playcallers hes dealth with his whole career, not a good representation of his actual skill level


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earthquake
9 years ago

Peterson's numbers being lower than charles are a direct result of the idiot playcallers hes dealth with his whole career, not a good representation of his actual skill level

Originally Posted by: gbguy20 



Eh, I don't know about that. It's not as if Peterson's numbers are "bad", his 5.0 career average is the same as Barry Sanders, Peterson's numbers overall actually compare very closely to Sanders'. Both guys had a lot of negative or low gain plays, while having more highlight reel type plays than basically anyone else at the position durring thier respective eras.

Jaamal Charles on the other hand has, as far as I know, the highest career average of any player (with an * for having a certain amount of carries no doubt). He's done that with less highlight reel type plays, so I find it hard to understand how you could come to the conclusion that Charles is not a more consistent back. The theory about coaching assumes that the Chiefs, yes, the Chiefs, have had good play calling.

Anyway, consistency doesn't equal talent, that's sort of the whole point of my post. With the Packer's highly proficient offense, they don't need a Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson type player. A guy like Eddie Lacy who reliably gets enough yards to move the chains, and rarely breaks a huge gain, suits the system well.
blank
texaspackerbacker
9 years ago

I love Lacy. The perfect teammate and a great man; he’s 100% about the team. And you can keep your Petersons and Murrays; Lacey is a complete back; though he’s not as “dangerous” a back as those others. When players see him go in beast mode; it makes every other player on both D and O play just a bit harder.

But here’s the reality. Signing Lacy means we lose someone else; it’s not just about having Lacy; its about having Lacey and Boyd or a not injured Starks-like RB and Daniels.

Long ago, Ted and I learned to devalue RBs; their cap cost was way out of whack with their importance to winning football games; especially with rules favoring passing. And ya can get a good one in rounds 4-UDFA of any draft. It’s only in the last few years the rest of the league has now come around to our plateau of thinking.

It is 100% against TT’s and my religion [and sounds like against Tex's too, LOL] to pay a RB; but dammit if there’s an exception, it’s gotta be Lacy. Perhaps his mileage [beast mode runners rarely last as long as Lynch] and asthma might keep the $$ down might make a hometown discount palatable. If he practiced in, for example, AZ, and came to an icy GB on game day; his asthma would wreck his ability to produce.

Originally Posted by: Barfarn 



Excellent Analysis, both pro and con. It will be a shame to lose Lacy, and maybe Ted can work out some kind of a team friendly deal where he takes less to stay in Green Bay, but otherwise, the Con side prevails over re-signing him for a huge contract.


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texaspackerbacker
9 years ago

I was curious so I looked at that stats, in terms of breaking long runs Lacy isn't on par with the best in the league, that's for sure. Here's a random sample:

Barry Sanders
20+ 4.4%
40+ 1.6%

Adrian Peterson
20+ 4.5%
40+ 1.4%

Jamaal Charles
20+ 3.7%
40+ 1.2%

Demarco Murray
20+ 3.7%
40+ 1.0%

Eddie Lacy
20+ 2.0%
40+ 0.5%

Interesting notes, Peterson breaks a lot of 20-40 yard runs, probably more than any other back in the league (I didn't extensively research this), but even then, Jamaal Charles has a better career average (5.5 vs 5.0 yards), which means Charles is a more consistent back, constantly getting positive yards, while Peterson likely has a lot more negative or 0-2 yard runs.

The 40+ numbers are interesting as well, none of these guys breaks 40 yard runs more than 1.6% of the time. Peterson at 1.4% breaks on average 4 40+ runs a season, or once every 4 games.

For perspective, Aaron Rodgers throws a 20+ yard pass 10.7% of the time (53 times a season), and a 40+ pass 2.2% of the time (12.5 times a season). If you want someone to "take it to the house" you use the passing game, not the running game.

Lacy's stats have the smallest sample size which may not be entirely representative, though he's been a starter essentially since he's been drafted and RB's typically have good numbers when young.

Originally Posted by: earthquake 



Interesting Stats. I don't know if it's the conclusion others would make, but what I see here is that Aaron Rodgers passing the ball is EXTREMELY more effective than anybody running it - Lacy, of course, coming in well behind those gamebreaker RBs mentioned. I wonder where O.J. would be in those stats. I wonder where Melvin Gordon will be in those stats. In both cases, at the very top, I expect.

I say again, we need a Pass-First offense - with the RB only being a "change of pace". And in that kind of scenario, a take-it-to-the-house Speed Back is more valuable.

Expressing the Good Normal Views of Good Normal Americans.
If Anything I Say Smacks of Extremism, Please Tell Me EXACTLY What.
steveishere
9 years ago
Again with the take it to the house junk. Eddie Lacy only had 1 TD run of 20+ yards last year which doesn't seem too great but to put that in perspective only 7 RBs in the league had more with Jamal Charles leading the way with 3 and 6 other players having 2. So Eddie Lacy who is nowhere near being a take it to the house type of RB took it to the house 2 less times than the best RB in the NFL at doing it. That pretty much shows how insignificant being able to take it to the house is.

Here's some more interesting numbers on taking it to the house. In 2013 Starks came in tied for 2nd in 20+ yard TD runs just 1 shy of leading the league... he only had 3 such runs. He had no 20+ TD runs in 2014 yet if you combine the last two seasons only 5 players have more.

40+ yard runs are even more rare only one player has more than two over the last two seasons it's LeSean McCoy with 3. Seven players have 2 and a bunch including Eddie Lacy have 1. Only 8 players have more 40+ yard TD runs over the last two seasons than the plodding power back Eddie Lacy yet some want to make that skill a priority... lol.

This offense doesn't need a certain "type" of RB it needs a consistently good RB which it has. If we can manage to find another when Lacy's contract is up then sure let him go if we don't then we should probably hang onto him because he makes a difference in games.
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