First here is a look at the current roster with 2013 salaries applied.

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** Based off contracts as of 1/14/2013 and the estimated 121 million dollar projected 2013 cap.

Players Entering the 2013 year without Contracts:
Sam Shields
Erik Walden
Evan Dietrich-Smith
Brad Jones
Frank Zombo
Robert Francois
Cedric Benson
Ryan Grant
Tom Crabtree
Donald Driver
Greg Jennings
Jarrett Boykins
Jeremy Ross

Guys with Expiring Contracts after 2013
Andrew Quarless
B.J. Raji
Brandon Saine
C.J. Wilson
Clay Matthews
DuJuan Harris
Graham Harrell
Jamari Lattimore
James Jones
James Starks
Jeff Saturday
Jermichael Finley
John Kuhn
M.D. Jennings
Marshall Newhouse
Mike Neal
Morgan Burnett
Ryan Pickett

The Packers enter the 2013 with a cap of around $116 Million on the books in committed salaries. Two notable contracts that can be washed without a cap hit are Jeff Saturday (3.75M) and Charles Woodson (10M). Finley (8.75M) can be released with a modest hit of 500K. So we can make some room in a hurry if and when we choose to, however the only lock there to be released is Saturday, the contract he signed is basically shouting release prior to the March Bonus of 3.75M. Woodson I believe will be back on a reduced salary, a very reduced salary to return. All his future bonus monies are in the form of roster bonuses so it is a deal that can be reworked without much future effect. Finley, it really depends on the guy that steps on the field, but even at his best this year it can be argued that his 8.75M contract is too high. He is a matchup issue for defenses when he is on and dialed in, I believe he is kept but that is conditional on his relationships he has inside the locker room.

Of the guys with no deals, I realistically can’t see any of them past Sam Shields, Erik Walden, Brad Jones, Jarrett Boykins and Jeremy Ross resigned. Realistically. Of the guys entering their final years I think there are several realistic candidates to be extended beyond 2013. A lot of that really is going to hinge on how much Rodgers is going to get, I think this offseason is when the Packers get that done so they know how to set the table around him.

His cap number in 2013 is 10.25 million and 2014 it modestly goes up to 11.5 in 2014 when it is set to expire. The Packers need to know how much that number is going to expand past 2014 so they can make current decisions on the likes of Shields, Finley and Jennings. They also need to know that number to start to plan for Matthews and Raji’s second contracts. Jennings might be a bit miffed about not getting his deal redone to this point, but this is honestly the reason it hasn’t been done in my opinion. The Packers are going to want to get this one done before making decisions on Jennings and possibly Finley. If Rodgers deal is going to be in the Brady neighborhood (21.5 Million) it is basic economics that they cannot extend a player like Jennings who is going to consume between the Andre Johnson and Fitzgerald numbers.. 12 to 20 million. At least those are the numbers Jennings is likely going to want to approach. The economics of the game and other franchises overpaying for receiving talent has more than likely out priced a Jennings deal with Rodgers looming. Finley as well has pressure on the Jennings deal, if long term Finley is in the Packers plan.. Jennings realistically can’t be. James Jones deal expiring also places long term pressure on the Jennings deal.

Shields is going to be a restricted free agent so the Packers have some leverage to bring him back, the economics of that deal are going to be interesting but I would assume they will find a middle ground that works for both parties in a 2 to 4 year deal range. Shields had two strong years with one subpar year, so I don’t think he breaks the bank but it is going to cost us some cash.

The Driver ship has sailed, even on a veteran minimum deal, I just don’t see the Packers committing a roster spot to him in place of say a Boykins or Ross. If I am the Packers, I offer him a front office position and hope he takes it. Player relations for starters, a guy with his life experience and position to the Packers would probably prove very effective.

So removing Saturday and resigning the guys listed above with expiring deal, it brings us to 54 under contract with probably at least a couple of the practice squad players be signed to future contracts, like a BJ Coleman.

The Breakdown of players then looks like this. Offense today.. Defense to come later.

QB - 2
RB - 4 - Saine being a question mark.
FB - 1
WR - 5
TE - 4
C - 1
G - 3
T - 4
DE - 3
DT - 5
LB - 9
DB - 7
S - 3
K- 1
P – 1
LS – 1

With that stated, let’ s talk about the individual positions and needs for the 2013 Season, whom stays, and whom goes in this offseason.

QB

Stays
Rodgers
Coleman

Bubble
Harrell

I believe this will be the Rodgers and Coleman show for 2013, with Coleman’s work ethic and arm talent, he beats out Harrell for the sole backup spot. The Packers will again dip into the lower ranks and college to find an understudy for the PS.

RB

Stays
DuJuan Harris
James Starks
Alex Green

Bubble
Brandon Saine – Injury recovery being the reason this is a question.

Harris gives the Packers a dimension we haven’t seen to date with the backs of the last couple years since maybe Grants early years in Green Bay. Always moving forward and has a different burst to him, seemed to come on in the passing game. Starks might be the odd man out if the Packers step into the college ranks for another option.

FB

Stays
John Kuhn

I see the 2013 year as Kuhn’s final in Green Bay, his health is becoming a factor and coupled with the Packers love of the TE/H back types.. I think the Packers look for a younger version of Kuhn moving past 2013.

WR

Stays
Jordy Nelson
James Jones
Randall Cobb
Jarrett Boykins

Bubble
Jeremy Ross – Special teams value here.

Wildcard
Greg Jennings – Although, he kept his touchdown late in the SF playoff game, I think he is gone to the biggest payday.

I think the Packers will draft another mid round gem type of a receiver to add to the stable, maybe two and bumping Boykins to the bubble. But the top level of that depth chart is set. If the Packers find a way to retain Jennings.. I still see them looking for the next generation with Jones and Nelson coming up. Jones earned himself a raise this season on his next deal. Packers will protect themselves a bit in case he tries to break the bank as well.

TE

Stays
Jermichael Finley
D.J. Williams
Ryan Taylor

Bubble
Andrew Quarless

Wildcard
Tom Crabtree

I think the Pack is set unless they cut ties with Finley for contract concerns, if they do that, I think Quarless moves up if he is healthy. If not, the Packers are going to have to find another vertical threat at the Tight End position. D.J Williams I anticipate becomes a larger part of the offense next season, but he lacks the size speed combo that the elite Tight Ends in the league do.

Offensive Tackles

Stays
Marshall Newhouse
Bryan Bulaga
Don Barclay

Bubble
Derek Sherrod

Wildcard
Derek Sherrod – Health concerns render him a unknown at this point.. stays but is a wildcard at best.

We could use a blue chip tackle on the left side or at least one side of this line to hold up against elite pass rushers to protect the Packers from committing more protection than just the 5 or 6 with the primary Tight End. The problem here is both sides of this line struggled against speed rushers.. and it greatly affected the offense to have to commit extra bodies to the protection to try and keep Rodgers clean. We can win with one side that needs extra help, if both sides struggle, if hampers the offense a great deal.

Offensive Guard

Stays
Josh Sitton
TJ Lang

Bubble
Greg Van Roten

With EDS moving to center, we are going to need at the minimum depth at this position. A Blue Chip Guard in the draft could bump Lang to a multiple position and valuable backup along the line.

Center

Stays
Evan Dietrich-Smith

Wildcard
Evan Dietrich-Smith

This is not a known commodity at this point, personally I would love to see a Blue Chip Center drafted to anchor this line for the next decade. My opinion, this has been and will continue to be the biggest weakness on this offensive line until someone steps in and starts to anchor this line and start to really put the teeth into our run blocking which will impact all areas of this line.

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Sure.. now I have to add a bit to it.. Ted is back to work.

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that's all right. You still didn't put the defense up you lazy slob.

I will come up with a list after work tonight.

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Pack93z...I see in running backs not even a mention of Cedric Benson. Has that ship sailed??

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copying pack93's list:

QB
Stays
Rodgers

Bubble
Harrell
Coleman

RB
Stays
DuJuan Harris
James Starks
Alex Green

FB
Stays
John Kuhn

WR
Stays
Jordy Nelson
James Jones
Randall Cobb

Bubble
Jeremy Ross
Jarrett Boykins

TE
Stays
Jermichael Finley
D.J. Williams
Ryan Taylor
Tom Crabtree
Andrew Quarless

Offensive Tackles
Stays
Marshall Newhouse
Bryan Bulaga
Don Barclay
Derek Sherrod

Offensive Guard
Stays
Josh Sitton
TJ Lang

Bubble
Greg Van Roten

Center
Stays
Evan Dietrich-Smith

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I think you're going to see a huge shift in our offensive focus. I know that sounds strange following a game where Green Bay gave up nearly 600 total yards, but the defense has young players. The Packers will rely on them to develop from within to get better. That is their system.

For example, Desmond Bishop and D.J. Smith return next season. Both players are under 30 and give the defense a more dynamic look. You have Casey Heyward, Brad Jones, Nick Perry, Mike Neal, Jerel Worthy, Mike Daniels, and Davone House returning. That's not including entrenched starters such as B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, and Morgan Burnett. The youth is on the defense. The question is whether the Packers can develop these players and put forth a strategic vision to implement them into the defense.

On offense, it's time the offense phases out Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley in favor of Cobb, Nelson, and Jones. They should also place a greater emphasis on the running game. The starting running back is not on the roster yet. Watch out for the name Le'Veon Bell of Michigan State come draft time.

I also expect turnover along the o-line. I posted about my opinion of Alabama center Barrett Jones. He's the ideal draft pick for this team. I expect a mid-round left tackle to round out the top of the draft or the first four rounds.

My ideal off-season
- Consider parting ways with Dom Capers. I honestly have mix feelings, but I'm leaning towards a change.
- Promote Darren Perry. The defense needs a younger mind and someone the players can relate, too.
- Trade Jermichael Finley for a couple of picks. I'm thinking a third rounder and fourth rounder.
- Sign a veteran tight end to replace him. (I'd have to look at the market)
- Restructure Charles Woodson’s contract.
- Draft Barrett Jones.
- Draft a running back. I mentioned Le'Veon Bell. He could push for the first off the board. I suspect he's a late first rounder. Use your extra picks and your current second rounder to secure your starting running back. Other names are Stepfan Taylor, Monte Ball, and Jonathan Franklin, though the latter is a mid rounder right now. I don't expect that to hold true for long.
- Draft a mid-round left tackle.
- Get good news on Derek Sherrod.
- Extend Clay Matthews.

I'm optimistic something along those lines is achievable.

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I think DuJuan Harris did plenty enough to merit a shot at starting running back. I saw nothing that said otherwise. All he did was give the offense a spark, average more than 4 yards a carry and scored on two touchdown runs in limited time while learning the offense.

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The kid is awesome. McCarthy just never gave him the rock for an entire game, putting it on his shoulders. Had he really done that, with 25-30 carries, we would still be in this thing, defensive lapses be damned. Actually, we probably wouldn't have had them, as our defense would have been more rested.

Mike McCarthy better learn how to run the fucking football. He gave away games against SEA, IND, NYG, MIN and finally SF by not doing so. Zero commitment to the run. Zero. If I were him, I would make this an emphasis for 2013. Look at any successful 3-4 scheme, and you will also find a quality running game with a head coach committed to running the football.