Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago

heh, you got us there. I pretty much missed that as well. But to be honest, 12 4th down stops doesn't reassure me much. I mean, I guess it's better than five stops, but it still doesn't mean much to me. Neither does the 26th ranked 3rd down percentage that the Packer's defense had (not to mention all the other bad stats). They were third in 4th down percentage though, if that comforts anyone.

Re: which MLB to start: I don't think there's any question Bishop is the #1 MLB right now. I'm pretty sure the coaching staff agrees with that sentiment, although admittedly I can't be certain of that yet. Bishop is a much better run defender and, according to some, often has tougher responsibilities in coverage. As I said, I'm pretty sure Rasaam (sp?) stated such, and I'm sure he knows more than me. It seemed that way to me, as well, but the qualitative assessment doesn't mean much.

Does anyone remember how some of the passing statistics often used here stacked up between Hawk and Bishop in 2010? I can't remember off the top of my head.

I'm all for Hawk. I hope he has the strongest season of his career and plays way better than Bishop could dream of. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening. Overall, both Hawk and Bishop are average LB's, in my opinion. The Packer's can win with them, but it'd be nice to have an improvement.

Originally Posted by: doddpower 



Bishop allowed something like a 122 rating when his guy was targeted. Hawk allowed something like an 85.

That was through 11 games. Bishop missed the next 3 games and Hawk missed the next 2. I didn't see an update after that.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
DoddPower
12 years ago

Well, my point is that they eye test is going to be much more likely to be misinterpreted than stats are. Because if someone doesn't like Hawk, they are going to look at his plays in a negative light. Where they will be more forgiving (or forgetting) of Bishop getting burned repeatedly, seeing Hawk anywhere near a busted play will lead to blaming him.

I wouldn't say stats tell people all they need to know, just that stats won't have the same glaring and huge gaps that the eye test will have. They can be misinterpreted, but they can't be missed due to a bias like the eye test.

You can't even have two guys compare their eye tests. There is no scale, no bench marks, no average and no way to be consistent.

In the NO game, the D had a couple huge 4th down stops (counting the un-timed down at the end of the game). They held the Saints to 1 of 4 in the red zone and 1 of 2 in goal to go opportunities.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 




Yeah, I can agree there's no consistent standard to an "eye test." But there are consistent attributes that make players good or great, and ultimately make them good football players in the NFL. Some people that have played football and watched it all their lives may eventually develop an eye for these attributes and they will often be standard across many different people. It's not perfect, but it's the basis of scouting, etc. It's pretty easy for experienced "football people" to notice (much more so than myself) what consistent great tackling looks like, elite offensive/defensive line techniques, throwing motions . . . the list goes on. That's more what I was referring to.

You do bring up a good point that if one wants and/or expects to see negative things, they likely will. Perception is reality. Certainly some are capable of being relatively objective, though.
DoddPower
12 years ago

Bishop allowed something like a 122 rating when his guy was targeted. Hawk allowed something like an 85.

That was through 11 games. Bishop missed the next 3 games and Hawk missed the next 2. I didn't see an update after that.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



Yeah, I know the ratings for last season, but I was curious about 2010.

Zero2Cool
12 years ago

You kind of got that backwards. The other team had to go for it on 4th down because we stopped them on 3rd.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



I'm thinking that the other team felt they got enough yards on three downs to merit an attempt on fourth. Suppose it all matters when the 4th down was too, but I noticed you didn't state that either because if they were down by 20 with 5 minutes to go ... they have nothing to lose. The stat just doesn't mean anything without the details.
UserPostedImage
Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago

I'm thinking that the other team felt they got enough yards on three downs to merit an attempt on fourth. Suppose it all matters when the 4th down was too, but I noticed you didn't state that either because if they were down by 20 with 5 minutes to go ... they have nothing to lose. The stat just doesn't mean anything without the details.

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



It is also kind of an incomplete stat.

More importantly, they opponents were only 25% successful on 4th down tries.

But the same things can be said about 3rd down success. If the 3rd downs were in prevent with a 3 score lead, giving up yards, first downs and even a few points in exchange for running the opponent out of clock is a safe bet.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
DoddPower
12 years ago

But the same things can be said about 3rd down success. If the 3rd downs were in prevent with a 3 score lead, giving up yards, first downs and even a few points in exchange for running the opponent out of clock is a safe bet.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



Except for the fact that the Packer's defense was the worst in allowing explosive plays of 20+ yards. It's not like teams routinely had to methodically drive the field to score points. They were often scored pretty quickly, especially at times (the Charger's game immediately comes to mind), often unnecessarily putting the pressure back on the offense to either attempt to run the clock or more often score more.

Also, I'd gladly trade that 25% 4th down conversion rate for the Packer's defense (a measly 12 total attempts) for an improved 3rd down percentage (26th). Forth down attempts will happen some, but 3rd down is obviously much more common and usually be more important. After all, 12 plays is just 12 plays. How many third down plays occur in a season?


EDIT: Or better yet, keep the 25% 4th down percentage, and just improve the 3rd down percentage (43%). I don't mean to make it sound like the two should be mutually exclusive. Hopefully the point came across. It's more of a priority thing.
Zero2Cool
12 years ago
Screw that, get them off the field on first down with a turnover!
UserPostedImage
DoddPower
12 years ago

Screw that, get them off the field on first down with a turnover!

Originally Posted by: Zero2Cool 



How? With a lead leading 31 interceptions, maybe? Eight more than the #2 team? heh heh.
Dexter_Sinister
12 years ago

Except for the fact that the Packer's defense was the worst in allowing explosive plays of 20+ yards. It's not like teams routinely had to methodically drive the field to score points. They were often scored pretty quickly, especially at times (the Charger's game immediately comes to mind), often unnecessarily putting the pressure back on the offense to either attempt to run the clock or more often score more.

Also, I'd gladly trade that 25% 4th down conversion rate for the Packer's defense (a measly 12 total attempts) for an improved 3rd down percentage (26th). Forth down attempts will happen some, but 3rd down is obviously much more common and usually be more important. After all, 12 plays is just 12 plays. How many third down plays occur in a season?


EDIT: Or better yet, keep the 25% 4th down percentage, and just improve the 3rd down percentage (43%). I don't mean to make it sound like the two should be mutually exclusive. Hopefully the point came across. It's more of a priority thing.

Originally Posted by: doddpower 



One of the reason I quote stats is, although people rarely play their average, people also rarely are represented by their worst game or worst performance.

Tomorrow I will have to look up the 3rd downs in the 4th quarters compared to 3rd downs the rest of the the quarters. Like I said, some 3rd downs matter more than others. Giving up a bunch before a pick, doesn't matter. Giving up a bunch with an 18 point lead doesn't matter. Giving up a bunch before a 4th down stop doesn't matter. Giving up a bunch before they clock runs out before they score, doesn't matter.

If you take out the 3rd down conversions that didn't matter, you might find the Packers were above average in giving up 3rd downs that actually mattered. Just like they were better than average giving up net points in quarters 1-3. In fact they were one of the best in the league.

Sure there were some stinkers, but if you look at any body else in the league, even the one who got 2 MVP votes, he had some fairly massive failures against some pretty crappy teams. Brees threw picks and cost his team games against horrible teams, and he was in the argument for MVP. The vaunted 49er D gave up 38 points to the Cowboys. Who only had a 100.1 season passer rating. (Their toughest opponent)

So the Packers D had a couple bad ones. So they were not as good in the 4th quarters. OVERALL they were not nearly as bad a I see written, posted or commented on.

A great deal of which is because people are angry and disappointed. Which is why they so vehemently defend bashing the D in spite of the numbers that contradict it.

Now I wouldn't say they didn't need improvement. But I also believe the dropped passes were even more instrumental in causing the Packers to struggle as much as a 15-1 team can be said to struggle.
I want to go out like my Grandpa did. Peacefully in his sleep.
Not screaming in terror like his passengers.
Stevetarded
12 years ago

I would still start Hawk over Bishop.

Originally Posted by: Dexter_Sinister 



Bishop is a better linebacker and football player.
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