28 Million (After 20+ last season) vs Will he be able to play and stay healthy = He will be cut.
I think the more apt question, is what type of contract will he get upon the market and will some team be foolish enough to guarantee a large portion of it than where he lands.
Personally.. I don't see him staying healthy upon his return.. throwing a ball vs taking a shot are two different things. We will see, but I am sure in the hell glad we are not in a position to take that risk on him.
Peyton would fit with a team that has a window of time to win a championship, not one closing.
Teams that meet that with QB questions.
Jets.. albeit that window is closing.
Ravens.. Not sold on Flacco as the man, however the defense doesn't have much more time.
Texans.
49ers. Although that would be a dagger to swallow after a productive season with Smith. If Peyton goes down, that would throttle Harbaugh's future there.
Chiefs have a ton of pieces.
Broncos have a ton of pieces, a defense that is stout and Manning might be enough to sell the fanbase to push Tebow aside and let him develop.
I don't see the Skins, Fins, SeaChickens and Cardinals as true opportunities to win a ring in the near future.
Fins maybe.. but that offense has a ways to go.
Bears make a ton of sense.. but they are neck deep in Cutler.
The Vikes don't have a window to win in the near future.
The Jags are a mess so are the Browns.
A wildcard would be the Cowboys if they could move Romo.. it is apparent that he is not the man in Dallas to take them to the promise land.
None of this take into account the salary cap implications it might take to land Manning.
So to sum up my guess... I have no clue.
I will say the Chiefs.
"The oranges are dry; the apples are mealy; and the papayas... I don't know what's going on with the papayas!"