I've been reading a lot about Rodger's production dropping off in the cold weather. So, is that true? It seems like one of those common wisdom type of sayings that get rolled out by commentators and harped on by guys like Mike "shutthefuckupgoddammit" Ditka. I'm looking at the second half of the season in 2010 and 2009, outdoor games in traditionally cold environments. I couldn't find game time temps, so I took the mean temp for the day from Old Farmer's Almanac.

2010, link to season 
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Rodger's average yards through first eight regular season games: 251.375
Rodger's average yards through last eight regular season games...
... excluding one week (@NE out) due to concussion: 273
... excluding two weeks (@DET, 46 yards & @NE out) due to concussion: 310.83


11/07 Week 9, DAL @ GB: Mean temp 42.2 °F, no precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
27 for 34
79.4% COMPLETION
289 YARDS
8.5 AVG
3 TDS
0 INT
131.5 RATING
Green Bay Wins 45-7

12/05 Week 13, SF @ GB: mean temp 25.8 °F, no precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
21 for 30
70.0% COMPLETION
298 YARDS
9.9 AVG
3 TDS
0 INT
135.1 RATING
Green Bay Wins 34-16

12/26 Week 16 NYG @ GB: mean temp 24.6 °F, no precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
25 for 37
67.6% COMPLETION
404 YARDS
10.9 AVG
4 TDS
0 INT
139.9 RATING
Green Bay Wins 45-17, Rodger's completion percentage suffers in this game, but yards, avg yards, and TDs do not.

01/02 Week 17 CHI @ GB: mean temp 11.7 °F, no precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
19-28
67.9% COMPLETION
229 YARDS
8.2 AVG
1 TD
1 INT
89.7 RATING
Green Bay Wins 10-3, first really cold game of the year

--post season outdoor/cold games--

01/09 Week 18 GB @ PHI: mean temp 26.7 °F, 0.10 IN precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
18 for 27
66.7% COMPLETION
180 YARDS
6.7 AVG
3 TDS
0 INT
122.5 RATING
Green Bay Wins 21-16

01/23 Week 20 GB @ CHI: mean temp 13.1 °F, no precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
17 for 30
56.7% COMPLETION
244 YARDS
8.1 AVG
0 TDS
2 INT
55.4 RATING
Green Bay Wins 21-14, another cold one and a very poor game for #12. Thanks for the win, Dom.

Average yards 2010 outdoor/cold second half season games, including playoffs: 274

2009, link to season 
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Rodger's average yards through first eight regular season games: 281.875
Rodger's average yards through last eight regular season games: 272.375

11/15 Week 10 DAL @ GB: mean temp 41.0 °F, no precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
25 for 36
69.4% COMPLETION
189 YDS
5.3 AVG
1 TDS
0 INT
91.1 RATING
Green Bay Wins 17-7

11/22 Week 11 SF @ GB: mean temp 43.7 °F, no precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
32 for 45
71.1% COMPLETION
344 YDS
7.6 AVG
2 TDS
0 INTS
108.0 RATING
Green Bay Wins 30-24

12/07 Week 13 BAL @ GB: mean temp 25.0 °F, no precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
26 for 40
65.0% COMPLETION
263 YDS
6.6 AVG
3 TDS
2 INT
87.8 RATING
Green Bay Wins 27-14

12/13 Week 14 GB @ CHI: mean temp 35.1 °F, 0.03 IN precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
16 for 24
66.7% COMPLETION
180 YDS
7.5 AVG
0 TDS
0 INTS
88.9 RATING
Green Bay Wins 21-14

12/20 Week 15 GB @ PIT: mean temp 23.9 °F, 0.08 IN precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
26 for 48
54.2% COMPLETION
383 YDS
8.0 AVG
3 TDS
0 INT
101.3 RATING
Green Bay Loses a shootout 36-37

12/27 Week 16 SEA @ GB: mean temp 18.3 °F, 0.04 IN precipitation
Aaron Rodgers:
12 for 23
52.2% COMPLETION
237 YDS
10.3 AVG
1 TDS
0 INT
103.0 RATING
Green Bay Wins 48-10, I can't remember where all the scoring came from...

Average yards 2009 outdoor/cold second half season games: 266

The Packers (and Rodgers) have not faced a game with inclement weather in quite awhile. Cold? Yes. Snow/rain? No. I didn’t look up wind. It will be interesting to see if they come up against anything worse than the cold this year. Any long term predictions about the weather in Wisconsin this winter?

Do I have too much time on my hands? Yes. Do I have a job? No. Would I like one? Yes.

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You have to consider his numbers are significantly better this year than previous seasons. If the drop off is minimal, as the pattern suggests, then the drop off this year will likely be minimal. That still equates to pretty remarkable QB play.

One thing perhaps overlook is Rodgers has played well against every team in cold weather with the exception of Chicago. That one team seems to give him the most trouble. That may spell trouble when the two teams play on Christmas and possibly in the playoffs. I would also add that throwing the football in cold weather is not hard at all. That is such a myth. It’s all about the wind. That variable worries me the most.

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Here's my theory: weather effects everybody, but it affects Rodgers less. Bad weather usually means lower production offensively. Well, Rodgers has a quick release, a strong and accurate arm, reads defenses pre-snap, is athletic, and makes great decisions. So, when the weather get cold and other QBs get weaker, Rodgers' strengths shine.

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Rodgers has a stronger arm than alot of other QBs, so that is an advantage in wind. The main thing about weather that people always say, is that you need a running game to be successful. That hasn't necessarily been the case. The Packers' pattern has been to play better in the second half of the year. This imo is due mainly to the offensive line slumping in the middle of the season, then pulling it together late, and also due to the RB situation. The one year, Grant finally got his shot late in the year. Last year, it was Starks. But in neither case was it due to an inability to throw the ball. In both cases, it was due to total shit suckage in the run game earlier in the year, transforming into adequacy in the run game later in the year. The team merely added a weapon to it's arsenal. And started playing better, I might add.
The team is great in domes, though. As we saw in the playoffs last year.
The Bears play us tough, because we always play them in weather, but also because their strategy is to limit our ability to make big plays. They force us to move the chains and not make mistakes all the way down the field. That's why we tend to score fewer points against them. Fortunately, we are better than they are.

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there is a decrease in his numbers in cold weather. so from that stand point Ditka is right. they just are not huge decreases except against Chicago. But wind does factor in to the scenario. Even if Arron has a strong arm the wind will limit some of his passes. He won't have the one that he "gets air underneath" and flips over the defender. The one into the corner of the endzone. The one over near the sidelines. The deep one that the receiver runs down. They just are not as effect. His passes with a flat low trajectory will be fine but that then limits his game.

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I was thinking this while I was putting together these numbers. There’s a reason those Bears games are often so frustrating and it’s not just because it tends to be cold when we play them. Rodgers is playing at such a high level this year, though, that even a merely average game for him is going to be enough to beat the likes of the Bears, especially if the defense gets things rolling.

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Agreed.

Ever since Lovie Smith became coach, we didn't do that well against da Bears. Take out those games and it appears that 🇦🇷 is pretty good in the cold.

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It doesn't bode well for my fantasy week that Jason Wilde spoke about (directly to) Aaron Rodgers having difficulty against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I have a feeling we'll see another 275 yards passing with 3 or more TD's scored by Aaron Rodgers. This means, I lose, again. 6 - 5, here I frickin come!

But, I'm okay with losing because Aaron Rodgers torches the shit out of a team. 🙂

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I've been expressing my doubts on winter weather slowing Rodgers for two years now. Last year I looked up his stats in late outdoor games compared to his career averages and found there was essentially no difference in his qb rating. Granted, I didn't know where to get game day weather like Silentio provided for us, but the games I was including were those in northern cities like Green Bay, Chicago, and Pittsburgh.

We see that outside of the Bears he's done just fine. Thing is if you look at 09 and 10, Rodgers stats in the game against the Bears early in the year weren't all that different than in the game late in the year. They would be about two or three points higher. Obviously, the major exception is the NFC Championship game, but one game is not enough to draw conclusions from. This year the Bears have held Rodgers to his lowest qb rating (111) and are the only team to get a legitimate interception off him (the other two went through a receiver's hands). The Bears have consistently played Rodgers better than any other team in his career, regardless of when during the year they've played him.

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All QB's numbers tend to decrease over the course of the season.
The weather gets worse
They get nagging injuries
Receivers get injured
O-line gets injured
etc

It affects all QB's.

For example, Aaron Rodgers is already declining.
1st viking(scumbags) game his passer rating was 146.5.
Against the Chargers his passer rating was 145.8.
2nd vikling(scumbags) game his passer rating dropped to 140.3.

Yet with those types of numbers I'm not too worried and don't want to nitpick.

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