Green Bay Packers unrestricted free agents' prospects are mixed
by Pete Dougherty
When it comes to pursuing other teams’ free agents, there’s no reason to think the Green Bay Packers’ approach will change one iota from General Manager Ted Thompson’s modus operandi since 2005.
Coming off a Super Bowl win, there’s no reason to think Thompson will stray from his annual indifference to other teams’ players on the open market.
But the Packers still figure to be at least waist deep in the unprecedented signing frenzy that will start if and when the NFL and its players agree on a new collective bargaining agreement.
Reports in the last week or so suggest a CBA could be finished soon, perhaps by early to mid July. When it’s signed, the start of free agency will soon follow, maybe within a couple days, and in a drastically compressed signing period Thompson will be looking to bring back at least a few of the Packers’ 12 likely unrestricted free agents, plus add the undrafted rookies the NFL lockout rules prohibited teams from pursuing after the draft.
If the CBA is finished in early or mid July, teams will presumably get a couple of days to digest the new salary-cap rules and at least have a one- or two-week period to sign players before training camps open in late July.
If the deal isn’t finished until closer to the start of camps, or after camps were scheduled to have opened, most of the signings and the beginning of camps could overlap in an especially chaotic time for front offices, coaches and players.
Teams are working from the assumption that the new CBA will return eligibility for unrestricted free agency to four years service, the same as it was from 1993 through 2009. That’s not guaranteed but is the most likely outcome of the pending CBA talks.
Less certain is how the CBA will handle restricted free agency this season.
In past years, teams had a late-February deadline to tender offers to restricted free agents (i.e., players with three years of service whose contracts had run out), and then the restricted market was open from the start of the league year in early March until the week before the draft. If another team signed a player to an offer sheet, his original team had a week to decide whether to match.
Facing the compressed signing period, it’s unclear whether the owners and players will agree to cancel restricted free agency for this year only, or offer it in abbreviated form. They could, for instance, shorten the restricted signing period to a few days or a week, and give teams only one day to match an offer a player signs with another club.
No matter the rules, teams will have to be ready for fast decisions and lightning negotiations on restricted and unrestricted free agents alike. They’ve had an extended offseason to plan, so they at least can go in with well-thought priorities. But they still will be deciding numerous important personnel matters over just a few days.
Following is a look at the Packers’ unrestricted free agents, assuming the next CBA sets free-agent eligibility at four years service, and the likelihood of each player re-signing with the Packers:
DE Cullen Jenkins: A good bet to leave after the Packers made no attempt to extend his contract last season. Thompson’s history suggests he thinks Jenkins’ age (30) and injury history make him too risky for a major investment, especially with standouts such as tight end Jermichael Finley, receiver Greg Jennings and quarterback Aaron Rodgers likely in line for new contracts in the next couple years, and with linebacker Clay Matthews and nose tackle B.J. Raji coming up thereafter. Jenkins should draw major interest as an inside pass rusher and might fetch $15 million to $20 million in guaranteed money on the open market. The Chicago Bears are believed to be especially interested.
K Mason Crosby: Probably is at the top of the Packers’ priority list. He’s missed more kicks than his talent would warrant – his 78.1 percent career field-goal accuracy is under the 80 percent minimum teams shoot for – but he’s only 26, has a live leg and functions fine in a bad kicking climate. Capable kickers are hard to find, as the Packers discovered after Ryan Longwell left in free agency, so Crosby has plenty of value for them.
WR James Jones: Probably will leave for a team that pays him starter’s money. If the Packers were inclined to pay him at that level, they probably would have done so last season. They drafted Randall Cobb in the second round this year in part to protect against Jones’ possible departure. Jones should attract significant interest, though if the market is unexpectedly depressed, he could return.
G Daryn Colledge: More likely than not will leave for a team with a big hole at guard. Hasn’t missed a game in five seasons, but the Packers appear averse to bidding for him because they’re ready to play young linemen such as T.J. Lang and first-round pick Derek Sherrod.
RB Brandon Jackson: The chances of his return are probably 50-50. He might have more value to the Packers than other teams because he’s proven proficient at picking up blitzes in a passing-down role in their scheme. That said, competition for playing time and even a roster spot will be tougher this year with Ryan Grant back from injury, James Starks showing promise late last season and the drafting of Hawaii’s Alex Green in the third round. It’s unclear whether Jackson will draw much interest on the open market because he hasn’t produced much as a runner, and every year brings a new corps of young backs that teams are looking to develop.
FB John Kuhn: A good bet to re-sign with the Packers. Should have more value for them than other teams because he’s entrenched in the system and has performed fine at halfback when injuries wiped out that position.
FB Korey Hall: Only an even bet to return, assuming the Packers re-sign Kuhn. The Packers also have Quinn Johnson at fullback, and he’s finished strong in each of his first two seasons. Hall’s value is as a core special-teams player. It’s questionable whether the Packers want three fullbacks on their roster for a third straight season.
S Atari Bigby: Former starter appears unlikely to return because of his injury history. He missed 26 of 53 games over the last three seasons, playoffs included.
C-G Jason Spitz: Likely will sign with another team because the Packers have several young interior linemen coming up. However, if the market is light, he could return. Wasn’t the same player last year after undergoing major back surgery in 2009, but maybe another offseason of rehabilitation will revitalize him.
S Anthony Smith: More likely than not will re-sign. The Packers are his best chance to stay in the league. He’s played in their version of a 3-4 defense for most of his career. The coaching staff liked him enough to convince Thompson to trade for him last season after the GM cut him in 2009.
LB Matt Wilhelm: The 30-year-old is unlikely to return after the Packers signed him in the middle of last season to shore up special teams.
CB Josh Bell: Won’t be back after the Packers tried unsuccessfully to sign an injury settlement with him last season. Spent all of 2010 on injured reserve because of a broken foot.
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