INDIANAPOLIS The Green Bay Packers have the most coveted pick in the NFL draft: last in the first round.
Its not a prime spot for landing a difference maker, but selecting at No. 32 overall means they won the Super Bowl. And while theres no knowing for sure what General Manager Ted Thompson will do in the first round, his history says that if he trades, hes far more likely to move down, picking up an extra pick or two, than up, which would cost valuable selections.
Most likely, hell do as he has with his top pick in his previous six drafts with the Packers and exercise that No. 32 selection at one of probably six or seven positions.
The first round will be excruciating. Thompson said at the NFL scouting combine this week, because well sit there and watch all these really good players get drafted before we can do anything. But again, thats a problem were OK to deal with.
The Packers have no glaring holes in their starting lineup for a first-round draft pick, but they have plenty of needs, if not immediate then for the near future.
The one position where a high-round pick would have a great chance to be a starter is right outside linebacker, where last season Brad Jones, Frank Zombo and Erik Walden split the job opposite Clay Matthews for the NFLs second-ranked scoring defense.
But Thompson also has to be strongly considering a tackle, on either side, who might have the luxury of developing this season to become a starter in 2012. Hell also be looking for a receiver to replace possible losses at that playmaking position in the next year; a cornerback who could play in the nickel if theres an injury but similarly could be a year or two away from playing regularly; and a running back if a player he likes enough is available.
Of lesser need but a position that cant be ruled out, depending on how the first round falls, is defensive end, which is unusually deep for 3-4 type players at the top of this draft.
Thompson will have his pick in each round, plus a likely third-or fourth-rounder as compensation for the loss last year of free agent Aaron Kampman, plus a seventh-round pick acquired from Carolina for long-snapper J.J. Jansen. This is a year to restock a roster that inevitably will shed good players in the next two to three years, mainly because of financial constraints in the NFL.
Id say that our football team represents what you can accomplish building through the draft, coach Mike McCarthy said. Thats a credit to Ted Thompson and our personnel staff. Were a draft-and-develop program, we have been for the last five years, well continue to do so, and this is a very important draft class for our football team to keep the competition at a high level in the locker room, to keep the depth of our football team as deep as possible. The lesson we learned going through this past season is a very good experience to draw from, so we believe in the draft.
Following is a look at the prospects likely to be picked in the first round at the Packers positions of greatest need, with a synopsis and preliminary draft status based on recent interviews with two NFL scouts:
OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
DaQuan Bowers (6-3, 280), Clemson: Junior entry and likely top-five pick will be long gone by the time the Packers select. Despite weighing 280 pounds probably is athletic enough to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 but will be more attractive as a 4-3 defensive end, a la Chicagos Julius Peppers.
Robert Quinn (6-4, 265), North Carolina: Another junior entry who wont get out of the top 10. Was suspended last year for accepting illegal benefits from an agent, but his play in 2009 was that of an elite prospect. Likely to be more coveted as a 4-3 defensive end but probably is athletic enough to play 3-4 outside linebacker even if hes not the smoothest playing in space.
Von Miller (6-3, 246), Texas A&M: A sacks machine (25 the last two seasons combined) for former Packers coach Mike Sherman at Texas A&M also will be a top-10 pick. Might be the best pure outside rushing prospect in this draft, so will be coveted as an outside linebacker for 3-4 defenses, though hes also a top prospect as a more conventional linebacker for 4-3 defenses.
Akeem Ayers (6-3, 254), UCLA: A junior entry who might a top-20 selection but has an outside chance of being available at the bottom of the first round. Can play in any defense but projects better to a 3-4 because his raw combination of size and speed as an outside rusher that is better than his stats (six sacks in 2009, four last year) suggest.
Ryan Kerrigan (6-4, 267), Purdue: Probably a top 20 to 25 pick, played defensive end in college and one of the best pass rushers in this draft. Had 25 sacks the last two years combined. More of a pure 4-3 defensive end but looks more than athletic enough to play 3-4 outside linebacker.
Aldon Smith (6-4, 263), Missouri: Entering the draft after his redshirt sophomore season, should go at the bottom of the first round at the latest and might move up draft boards the next two months. Missed three games because of a fracture in his lower leg and had a modest 5 sacks last year but 11 as a redshirt freshman. Has a good combination of size, extremely long arms (35 5/8 inches) and athletic ability.
Justin Houston (6-3, 270), Georgia: Junior entry whos a late first-round prospect and less of a projection than Smith for 3-4 teams because he played 3-4 outside linebacker last year in college. Could test well and move up teams boards. Had 10 sacks and 18 tackles for a loss last season. Was suspended last May for reportedly violating his schools substance-abuse policy.
TACKLES
Nate Solder (6-8, 319), Colorado: Tall but athletic left tackle who figures to be a top 15 pick, maybe even top 10. Disappointed with only 21 bench-press reps at the scouting combine this weekend but ran the 40 in 5.05 seconds, which is excellent for a player his size. Might have trouble handling bull rushers early in his career, but erases concerns about his height with good knee bend and flexibility.
Tyron Smith (6-5, 307), USC: Early draft entry who could surpass Solder as the top tackle. Started at right tackle for USC the last two years at only 285 pounds but is more than athletic enough to play left tackle in the NFL and helped himself immensely by weighing in at a cut but stout 307 pounds at the combine. Has incredibly long arms (36 3/8 inches) and figures to test well at USCs campus workout after skipping testing at the combine because hes still recovering from a knee injury.
Anthony Castonzo (6-7, 311), Boston College: Figures to be a top 20 to 25 pick at worst, but theres at least a chance hell be available at the bottom of the round, depending on how he tests. Played left tackle in college though some scouts think hes better suited for the right side. Smart but not an elite athlete and in the 40 ran an OK 5.23 seconds.
Gabe Carimi (6-7, 314), Wisconsin: Similar in size and build to Castonzo, and ran a similar 40 (5.27 seconds). Scouts appear split on which is the better prospect. Neither appears quite as athletic as Bryan Bulaga, the Packers pick at No. 23 overall last year, though with fewer likely top 10 or 15 picks at left tackle than in recent years, they could move up this years board.
Derek Sherrod (6-5, 321), Mississippi State: Probably will go in the bottom third of the first round, though he could last a little longer. Big, smart and long armed (35 3/8 inches), but might not play as athletically or with as strong a base as the player rated ahead of him.
Ben Ijulana (6-4, 317), Villanova: Could make it into the bottom of the first round, though concerns about the level of competition at the Football Championship Series level (formerly Division I-AA) probably will push him into the second round. Played tackle at Villanova and has the arm length (36 inches) to do so in the NFL also, though some scouts project him as a guard.
CORNERBACKS
Patrick Peterson (6-1, 211), LSU: One of the premier athletes in this draft and probably a top-five pick. Has the size of a free safety, and speed and cover ability of a cornerback.
Prince Amukarama (6-1, 205): Another big cornerback whos a top-10 prospect but doesnt quite have Petersons speed or suddenness.
Jimmy Smith (6-2, 205), Colorado: Has the size and athletic ability to be in the same class as Peterson and Amukarama, and ultimately could be among the top 15 or 20 selections because of his talent. But concerns about his work ethic and coachability could drop him, perhaps even to the bottom of the first round.
Brandon Harris (5-11, 193), Miami: Quick and instinctive cover man who plays the ball well and probably will go late in the first round. Size could be a concern for teams that like big cornerbacks. Started ahead of the Packers Sam Shields last year, but based on Shields excellent play as a nickel back doesnt appear to be as good a pro prospect.
Aaron Williams (6-1, 192), Texas: Junior entry who looks like a first-round talent but probably wont go until early in the second round because hes raw.
RECEIVERS
A.J. Green (6-4, 211), Georgia: The highest rated of the three tall, gifted juniors who top the receivers prospects. Figures to go in the top 10 picks. Not as fast as the NFLs best big receiver, Detroits Calvin Johnson, but runs more than well enough and has great hands.
Julio Jones (6-3, 220), Alabama: Entering the draft after his true junior season, figures to be a top 15 pick.
Jon Baldwin (6-4, 228), Pittsburgh: The biggest of the three, has almost a tight ends size with a receivers deep speed, though hes not as sudden as Green or Jones. Might be available at the bottom of the first round, but if he runs well enough in testing more likely will be a top 20 or 25 pick.
Torrey Smith (6-1, 204), Maryland: Junior entry and former high school quarterback who lacks the polish of the receivers rated ahead of him, but is a burner who could push into the bottom of the first round if he runs the 40 in 4.3 seconds or less.
RUNNING BACKS
Mark Ingram (5-9, 215), Alabama: The top back in a draft that lacks elite prospects but is deep overall at the position. Won the Heisman Trophy in 2009 but wasnt as productive last year while splitting time with another excellent pro prospect, Trent Richardson. A likely top 15 pick who lacks breakaway speed but is a thick, powerful and elusive runner.
Ryan Williams (5-9, 212), Virginia Tech: Junior entry who probably will go in the bottom third of the first round. Missed 4 games last year because of a hamstring injury and didnt put up much for numbers (4.3-yard average), but in his sophomore season was one of the best backs in the country (5.6-yard average, 1,655 yards). Not as powerful as Ingram but has better open-field speed.
DEFENSIVE ENDS
Nick Fairly (6-4, 291), Auburn: A top-five pick who could go No. 1 overall. Will be more coveted as a 4-3 defensive tackle but also is a top prospect for a 3-4 scheme as an end who plays tackle on nickel downs.
Marcel Dareus (6-3, 319), Alabama: Also a possible top-five pick for either a 4-3 or 3-4. Some scouts rate him higher than Fairly.
Cameron Heyward (6-5, 294), Ohio State: One of a group of four or five 3-4 defensive end prospects who will go starting in the middle of the first round. Son of former NFL running back Craig Ironhead Heyward has a prototypical 3-4 build and was a four-year starter at a top football school.
J.J. Watt (6-5, 290), Wisconsin: A junior entry and likely top-20 pick who has the versatility to play a conventional end in a 4-3, or move to a 3-4 scheme such as the Packers as an early down end who moves to an inside rusher on passing downs. A natural football player with great instincts, and good power and speed.
Adrian Clayborn (6-3, 281), Iowa: A likely top-20 pick whose versatility is similar to Watts, though hell have more value as a left end for teams that play a 4-3, where he can stack the run and still play as an outside rusher.
Cameron Jordan (6-4, 287), California: Son of former Minnesota Vikings Pro Bowl tight end Steve Jordan could move up to the middle of the first round if he follows his strong Senior Bowl week with good workouts at the combine and on campus. Ready made for as a 3-4 end after playing in that scheme at California, had 11 1/2 sacks the last two years.
Muhammad Wilkson (6-4, 315), Temple: Junior eligible who probably will go in the bottom third of the first round. Has a huge frame that looks like it might fill out even more. Lacks the polish and big program pedigree of the others, but just might be the most talented of the five likely to go in the middle to late first round.
Corey Liuget (6-2, 298), Illinois: Smaller and not quite as dynamic as the players ahead of him, hurt his chances of going at the bottom of the first round when he measured in at only 6-2. More likely a mid-second-round pick but could move into the end of the first round with good workouts.
"Pete Dougherty" wrote: