THE BASICS

[img_r]http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/includes/news_items/40/4613/previewfavre.jpg[/img_r]
The teams: The Green Bay Packers (3-3) vs. the Minnesota Vikings (2-3).

The place: Lambeau Field, Green Bay.

The TV coverage: NBC WMTJ (Ch. 4) in Milwaukee and WMTV (Ch. 15) in Madison.

The announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth in the booth and Andrea Kremer reporting from the sidelines.

The coaches: Green Bay's Mike McCarthy is 42-31 (including 1-2 in the postseason) in his fifth season as the Packers' coach and as an NFL head coach. Minnesotas Brad Childress is 39-33 (1-2 postseason) in his fifth season as the Vikings coach and as an NFL head coach. The two have faced each other eight times as head coaches, and McCarthy holds a 5-3 advantage after winning the first five games between the two.

The series: The Packers lead the all-time regular-season series, 49-47-1, while the Vikings won the only postseason meeting, following the 2004 season. The Vikings have won three straight in the series, having swept the season series last year with a 30-23 victory at Mall of America Field at the Metrodome and a 38-26 triumph in quarterback Brett Favres return to Green Bay.

The rankings: The Packers 13th-ranked offense is No. 19 in rushing and is No. 10 in passing. Their 15th-ranked defense is No. 21 against the run and No. 17 against the pass. The Vikings 24th-ranked offense is No. 11 in rushing and No. 24 in passing. Their fifth-ranked defense is No. 11 against the run and No. 6 against the pass.

The injury report:
Packers DE Mike Neal (shoulder) and LB Brady Poppinga (knee) are out. G/T Marshall Newhouse (back) is doubtful. LB Clay Matthews (hamstring), LB Brandon Chillar (shoulder), DE Ryan Pickett (ankle) and RT Mark Tauscher (shoulder) are questionable. LT Chad Clifton (knee), S Nick Collins (knee), WR Donald Driver (quadriceps), LB A.J. Hawk (groin), DE Cullen Jenkins (hand) and CB Charles Woodson (toe) are probable.

Vikings S Husain Abdullah (concussion) is out. CB Lito Sheppard (hand) and T Chris DeGeare (ankle) are questionable. CB Chris Cook (knee), T Ryan Cook (wrist), QB Brett Favre (ankle/right elbow), DT Letroy Guion (toe), WR Percy Harvin (hamstring), LB E.J. Henderson (knee), TE Jim Kleinsasser (groin), DE Brian Robison (ankle) and C John Sullivan (calf) are probable.

The line: The Packers are favored by 3 points.



THE BREAKDOWN: FIVE THINGS TO WATCH

[img_l]http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/upload/image/Preview-Rodgers.jpg[/img_l]
Close, but : Aaron Rodgers readily admits he doesnt have an explanation for it. But he certainly recognizes how ugly the numbers are. With last Sundays 23-20 overtime loss to the Miami Dolphins, the Packers quarterback now owns a hideous 1-11 record in the teams 12 games decided by four points or fewer. When roughly a quarter of you 38 regular-season starts have been decided by that margin, and your team has won just once a 28-26 hold-on-for-dear-life victory over the lowly Detroit Lions on Oct. 3 you cant avoid the truth.

Its become a situation, Packers coach Mike McCarthy confessed. Anytime you have a tendency and its produced negative results, you have to look at everything. You have to look at the plays youre calling, you have to look at the execution of it, the defenses that youre getting in those particular situations. Ive created a situation column on my call sheet for that, and well continue to evaluate that.

We need to do a better job. Theres no doubt about it.

Asked how much blame Rodgers, who was 0-7 in such games in 2008, 0-1 last year and 1-2 this year after the back-to-back overtime losses by field goals the past two weeks, deserves, McCarthy acknowledged that the quarterback must be held accountable.

It is going to either be real good or real bad. That is the nature of the quarterback position in the National Football League, and even more so (in) our offensive system (because it) is is built around making the quarterback successful, McCarthy said. He is a very accountable young man and hell continue to work. Its not going to change the way we approach games and so forth, but its a situation that we probably have to maybe spend time on.

Closer examination of the numbers shows that the 1-11 record is somewhat skewed. Since Rodgers took over the offense, 20 of the Packers 38 games have been within a touchdown with the Packers leading or trailing by seven points or fewer entering the fourth quarter. Included in those 20 games are 10 of the 12 games decided by four points or fewer, and Rodgers record in those 20 games is 7-13. He is 2-7 in the nine games in which the Packers were trailing entering the fourth quarter, 1-1 in games in which they were tied, and 4-5 in games in which they were leading.

Also, included in the 11 losses by four points or fewer are two games in 2008 when Rodgers got the Packers into position for a game-winning field goal in the closing seconds (one was blocked, the other missed by Mason Crosby); two games that year when the Packers lost in overtime after losing the coin toss and never got the ball on offense; and three games when the defense gave up the winning points with 2 minutes or less to go in regulation after Rodgers got them the lead or a tie.

For Rodgers, though, winning those close games means making the plays that need to be made in the second quarter as much as it means making plays in the closing moments.

These games come down to a small handful of plays that dont always happen at the end of a game. Sometimes they happen in the second quarter, first quarter, first possession of the second half, Rodgers said. If you had done your job a little bit better, and Im speaking personally, if I had done my job a little bit better on a play maybe in the red zone in the first quarter and you get seven (points) instead of three (points), its a different game.

I have to look at myself first, and I have to play better, Rodgers said. I have not been playing up to the standard I've set for the way I've played in my 38 starts. I've got to play better.

[img_l]http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/upload/image/Moss%2098.jpg[/img_l]
Gathering Moss: Its the man Packers fans love to hate: Wide receiver Randy Moss, who essentially launched his career on a rainy Monday night in October 1998, when he caught five passes for 190 yards and two touchdowns in a win over Favres Packers, is coming back to Lambeau Field for the first time since fake mooning the crowd after a touchdown catch in an NFC Wild Card playoff game following the 2004 season.

Basically for years after that, then-Packers and current Vikings quarterback Brett Favre wanted to play Moss, and one of the reasons for his falling out with Packers general manager Ted Thompson was Thompsons failure to trade for the then-Oakland receiver when he had the chance in 2007. Having finally gotten his wish, Favre now gets to throw passes to Moss instead of watching helplessly as Moss destroyed his Packers teams.

In 14 career games against Green Bay, Moss has 70 catches for 1,313 yards (18.8-yard average) and 14 TDs. He also has the three highest single-game receiving totals against the Packers in Vikings history (190, 153, 150), and who could forget his fake mooning of the Lambeau Field faithful after scoring a touchdown in the Vikings 2004 NFC Wild Card victory?

The Vikings gave up a third-round pick to re-acquire Moss, their first-round pick in 1998, from the New England Patriots, and while he hasnt put up huge numbers yet (nine receptions, 136 yards, one touchdown in two games), hes certainly helped Favre, who has been without top target Sidney Rice (hip) all season.

I thought that was a good move by them. Didnt think it was a good move by the Patriots, said veteran Packers cornerback Al Harris, who battled Moss plenty during his final years in Minnesota. Honestly, I thought that was a pretty savvy move by them.

It certainly made Favre, who lobbied hard for the Packers to trade for Moss in 2007 and sign him as a free agent in 2008, happy.

Sure, I would have liked to see him come in and play with him (in Green Bay). The guy ended up catching 23 touchdowns (in 2007), Favre said while acknowledging that his relationship with Thompson went south after that. Hes a dynamic player and Im very excited about the opportunity to play with him. Im even more impressed with him as Ive gotten a chance to work with him, how intelligent he is. I mean, Randys Randy. He has his moments, but hes such a dynamic player, I think for our young players to watch him practice, the way he handles meetings, is very, very impressive.

I consider it a privilege to play with this guy ... This guy not only has the talent, he has the knowledge, the instincts, he has the complete package. It doesnt guarantee hes going to have 10 catches and 200 yards, but hes just a dynamic player. It was kind of bittersweet to watch him (while playing for the Packers) because, I mean, it was God this guy is unbelievable. Usually, he was beating you and it was kind of like, How do we stop him? As far as Ted and I go thats where it went awry. But thats over and done with.

[img_l]http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/upload/image/Preview-Allen.jpg[/img_l]
No turnstile jumping: When someone asked Jared Allen last year which left tackles had given him the best mano-a-mano battles during his career, Allens answer was singular: "Me and [Chad] Clifton up in Green Bay, Allen said, have had some good battles."

Of course, none of those battles came last season, when Clifton missed both Packers-Vikings games with an ankle injury and a whopping 7.5 of Allens 14 sacks last season came against the Packers. With Clifton and right tackle Mark Tauscher missing the first meeting and Clifton missing the second, Allen dominated Allen Barbre, Daryn Colledge and T.J. Lang en route to Rodgers.

"He's a good player," Allen said of Clifton. "He's athletic and a powerful guy, so it's always fun playing against him. It's been back and forth."

This time around, Allen will go against Clifton, and while Allen has just one sack this season, he did seem to get untracked with a five-hurry performance against Dallas Tony Romo. As a team, the Vikings had 15 pressures and nine quarterback hits, according to the coaching staffs review of the film.

"I think people are kind of shocked (by the one sack)," Allen said. "It's the first time in my career that it's been five games and I've only had one sack. But you look at last week, we should have had four or five sacks. Tony elected to throw the ball and we got (two interceptions) instead."

Clifton has played well the last two weeks, rebounding from a benching against Buffalo on Sept. 19 when his chronic knee injury flared up and he struggled.

[img_l]http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/upload/image/Preview-Harvin.jpg[/img_l]
Migraine headaches: Youd have to know Brad Childress to understand the sense of humor. Having seen wide receiver/returner/running back/jack-of-all-trades Percy Harvin sidelined by migraine headaches more than a few times over the past two seasons, Childress decided he had the perfect name for the offensive plays hes installed specifically for Harvin. Thats right, the package is called Migraine.

Entering Sundays game, Harvin leads the Vikings in receiving (20 catches, 224 yards, three touchdowns), had a game-turning 95-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against Dallas last Sunday and now is being used by Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell out of the backfield as well.

Were trying to use the skills of all the guys that we have; trying to get the ball to the playmakers, Bevell said. We feel like we have a lot of playmakers: obviously Randy Moss, weve got Percy, weve got (tight end Visanthe) Shiancoe, weve got (running back Adrian (Peterson), some other receivers as well. Theres a lot of guys to get the ball. Sometimes you have to be a little creative on how to make sure that it goes there.

In their victory over the Cowboys, the Vikings put Harvin in the backfield seven times, including two plays that were wiped out by penalties and another play on which the Cowboys called timeout because of Harvins presence behind Favre. Harvin ended up with 18 yards on two carries as a running back

"Anytime you have a player who's that multi-dimensional, it poses problems, and you have to prepare for it," McCarthy said. Percy definitely fits in that category. ... They're doing a good job with moving him around to create targeting issues with us defensively."

[img_l]http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/upload/image/Preview-Ragnar.jpg[/img_l]
The Favre factor: When Brett Favre returns to Lambeau Field in a Minnesota Vikings uniform, it still qualifies as huge news although maybe not as earth-shattering as when he threw for 244 yards and four touchdowns after being greeted by a cacophony of boos upon his return last year. But unlike last years Favreageddon, the prodigal quarterback returns with a host of other issues in tow. It will be fascinating to see how he plays when its not just the boos that are there to distract him.

Physically, he has been bothered by tendinitis in his right (throwing) elbow, which required a cortisone injection before last weeks win over the Cowboys. Statistically, after a career year last season, hes completed just 88 of 150 passes (58.7 percent) for 979 yards with six touchdowns, seven interceptions (as many as he threw all of last year) and a passer rating of just 72.1. And mentally, its hard to believe Favre hasnt been affected by the NFLs investigation into allegations that he sent inappropriate text messages and photos of himself naked below the waist to Jenn Sterger while both worked for the New York Jets in 2008.

Nevertheless, Favre maintains that all the issues havent made him second-guess his decision to return for a 20th NFL season. Last year, aside from not winning the Super Bowl, was, how could anyone say it was anything less than spectacular in a lot of ways? All my thinking once I committed to playing has been, I wish our record was better and I was playing consistently at a high level, but my commitment to myself and this team has not wavered one bit from when I committed to come here.

The good news for the Packers, who watched Favre complete a combined 41 of 59 passes (69.5 percent) for 515 yards with seven touchdowns, no interceptions and no sacks for a passer rating of 135.9 last year, is that they should have linebacker Clay Matthews (league-high 8.5 sacks) back after suffering a mild pull of his troublesome left hamstring against Washington on Oct. 10.

Theres no doubt about it. He sat back there and picked us apart. We dont have to lie about that, Matthews said Friday. We have to get some pressure on him. Knowing hes not as mobile as he once was when he was younger, if we can get some hits on him, get him off his game, I think itll pay dividends for us. Well look to get after him a little bit.

THE PREDICTION
The Vikings win at Lambeau Field last Nov. 1 was a remarkable one, given the emotion involved for Favre, who had been king of Green Bay for 16 years. But it was also notable for another reason: The Vikings havent won a road game since. Counting the playoffs, the Vikings are 0-6 on the road since winning beating the Packers that day. They were 7-1 in eight road games before that. On top of that, theyve proven to be not-yet-ready-for-prime-time players of late, having lost their last six night games since their Monday Night Football victory on Oct. 5, 2009. Since then, theyve lost regular-season games at Arizona, at Carolina and at Chicago; at New Orleans in the NFC title game; at New Orleans to start the 2010 season; and at the New York Jets on Oct. 11. The guess here is that both streaks continue, and Favres second game at Lambeau Field as a visitor ends in a loss. Packers 31, Vikings 27. (Season record: 4-2.)