The Green Bay Packers have reached a critical stage in their season, and it wouldn't be an exaggeration to say their game against the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field Sunday is a must-win situation.
A victory will end the Packers' two-game tailspin, restore some of their swagger and give them at least a share of the NFC North Division lead heading into the most difficult portion of their schedule.
A loss likely will send the 2008 season swirling down the drain.
Common sense suggests a Week 5 game cannot possibly have make-or-break implications, which is why I understand when quarterback Aaron Rodgers said on Friday, "It is crazy to call it a must-win."
But players live in a world in which every week carries significance, so to them, the Atlanta game is no different than the other 15 on the schedule.
What the players and coaches won't and can't say is the Falcons are one of the NFC bottom feeders, and if the Packers don't beat them at home, they can forget about a division title, playoff berth or winning record.
Just around the bend is a brutal month-long gauntlet that includes three rugged road games at Seattle, Tennessee and Minnesota, plus a challenging home date against Indianapolis.
A loss to the Falcons would deal a serious blow to the Packers' confidence, and they would be lucky to survive the next four games with anything better than a 3-6 record.
It would be nearly impossible to salvage a playoff berth out of that, even in a weak division.
If the Packers beat the Falcons, they can afford to win just one of their next four games and have a fighting playoff chance.
While injuries have contributed to a sluggish start, there is enough talent on the roster to lift the Packers into the postseason.
However, some troubling trends have emerged. The Packers beat themselves against an inferior opponent last week in Tampa Bay. They dilly-dallied around in Detroit and trailed the lowly Lions midway through the fourth quarter before getting bailed out by the defense. A punt return touchdown was the difference in a victory over the Vikings.
There is plenty of blame to go around. The defense ranks 26th and will be missing at least three starters to injury this week. The offense ranks 23rd in rushing, 28th in first downs and has been plagued by inconsistency.
Rodgers played well in the season opener and was brilliant in the first half of Game 2 against the Lions. Since, he's been erratic. His quarterback rating in the first six quarters of the season was 139.8. In the last 10 quarters, it has dipped to 67.2.
The line has done Rodgers no favors with its unsteady play, and the running game appears to be operating in wet cement. An injury to James Jones and the decline in production of Donald Driver are hurting the passing game. It will be a severe blow if Rodgers, who is listed as questionable with a sore shoulder, can't play against the Falcons.
But if the Packers don't find a way to stop the bleeding, their prospects for the rest of the season will be very grim.