This was the weakest ass post to explain his two year long ignorance. A elementary explanation for being a less than true packer fan.

I do not give a hill of beans what Gavedigga posts. It is like reading the inside door in a truck stop bathroom shitter 80% of the time. A statement that has a stream of venom in it, no matter how suttle, almost always.

I have seen some real Jack Ass Ignorant posters on Packer Forums over the years, but I have never had zero respect for one of them. Not one. Until Garvedigga.

I have zero respect for him, simply because he flaunts it. His Avatar, his posts about how he will be happy when Brett beats the Packers.

It is OK to point out ones concerns, bitch about MM, call for a firing.. But Gravediggga actually flaunted the fact he wanted the Packers to lose to The Vikes. He got a kick out of it.

I will take his advice and ignore him.

All I hope is that his Turncoat ass is not in Game day Chat during the playoffs. It is impossible to ignore a misdirected personality in the rapid fire Game day Chat.

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It's worth noting that the Vikings were just as few seconds away from being 11-5.

I know what people will say. "You are what your record is" and all that bullshit coach-speak, but it's simply not true. Luck plays a huge role in sports, as it does in life. That's why the Packers were 6-10 last year despite outscoring opponents by 39 points (if I remember correctly).

I know I'm getting somewhat off topic, but I don't know that this thread has had a consistent topic for the last 4 pages anyhow.

However, it's interesting to note that this Packer team actually leads the league in Pythagorean Wins. (Uh-oh...stat nerd alert!)

http://www.imarc.net/writable/archives/pythagorean_wins/ 

For those who don't know what Pythag Wins are, they derived from a formula based on points scored and points allowed to arrive at the number of games a team should have "expected" to win based on those point totals. With larger sample sizes (such as in baseball) they're remarkably accurate.

What's even more interesting is that Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders said that 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winners were the team with the highest Pythag Win total.

http://www.imarc.net/communique/21-pythagorean_wins_for_the_nfl 

It's unclear to me whether or not that means the team with the most Pythag Wins for the regular season has won the Super Bowl 80% of the time or if it simply means that once the two Super Bowl teams are decided, of those two teams, the better Pythag record has won the game 80% of the time. Regardless, nobody should be surprised if this Packer team makes a deep run.

Just some food for thought.

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Welcome back to the board, HoustonMatt; I've missed your incisive, fact-based analyses.

This concept of Pythagorean wins is interesting. How is the factor derived? Empirically?

A couple of comments. First, the "16 of the last 20 Super Bowls" statistic dates to 2005. I wonder how well it's held up in the subsequent few Super Bowls? Second, I note that of the 6 teams who gave up fewer points than the Packers, none of them scored as many points as the Packers; Green Bay actually scored the third most points in the league this year. Fourth, this quote (from the 2005 article) is rather mind boggling:

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To be honest, Im not sure exactly how the formula for football (PF^2.37/PF^2.37 + PA^2.37) was derived, but I assume it was done in the same way as Bill James created the original formula for baseball. Its simply a matter of trial and error. All he did was use runs scored and runs allowed and tinkered with the exponent. With each different exponent, he simply went back through baseball history and tested it. Eventually he found one (1.82) that accurately predicted a teams record. For the outliers who were more than a standard deviation away from their expected win-loss total, you can take it one step further and look at the following season. If your formula is worth a damn, a team that underperformed its expected victory total should improve the following year (as did the Packers from 08 to 09) and vice versa (see this years Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers).

As for the Super Bowl winners from 06 to current, I calculated their Pythag wins to see if the pattern held steady. This is incomplete as I didnt do the whole league to see if the Super Bowl winner led the league in Pythag wins, but it should give us some idea.

09 Pittsburgh 11.84 Pythag Wins
08 NY Giants 8.57 Pythag Wins
07 Indianapolis 9.59 Pythag Wins
06 Pittsburgh 11.61 Pythag Wins

Without knowing the other teams Pythag wins, Id assume Pittsburgh in 06 and 09 were among the top 3 at least. The Giants in 08 were predictably an outlier, though NE finished the season a remarkable +315 in point differential, so only a David Tyree catch prevented the Pythag Wins leader from winning the Super Bowl that year. In 07, Id estimate Indy was in the 5-6 range for Pythag Win total, but their opponent, the Bears, look to be either one or two (Baltimore had a very strong Pythag win total that year as well).

So did the pattern hold? Well, kind of.

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5 Sneaks? Right, all Rodgers does is score rushing TDs on sneaks, my grandma could do that. I guess that is why he lead all QBs in rushing yards.

4
12
1
14
1

Distance for Rodger's rushing TDs.
35 TDs no matter how you look at it

The funny thing is that it is somehow assumed that QB sneak TD's are the easiest thing in the world, if this were the case every QB in the league would have about 5 rushing TDs every year, but most teams prefer to use a large running back or fullback in these situations, telling isnt it?

Also, you would rather have 3 TDs than 5 TDs, what is this, GOLF?

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rodgers has the most rushing yards out of any QB I thought also ...

true

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I don't really care what Peter King, or any other talking head says. But it DOES show that others outside of the Packer fan base are seeing what we are seeing. That Ted Thompson is doing a pretty darn good job.
I always stated that i would wait to judge Ted Thompson based on the outcome. It's a shame that some can't "force" themselves to do the same.
"DON'T BOTHER ME WITH THE FACTS.....MY MIND IS MADE UP!!!" seems to be the cry of a few.

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