This will be broken down into first 15 plays and whether we ran or passed on 1st down.

Game 1: Packers vs. Bears

First 15 plays: (Often known as the scripted plays)

1. Pass, 6 yards
2. Run, -1 yard
3. Pass, 13 yards, 1st down
4. Run, 1 yard
5. Run, 1 yard
6. Pass, incomplete, 4th down, FG attempt

7. Pass, 14 yards, 1st down
8. Pass, incomplete
9. Pass, 6 yards
10. Pass, 14 yards, 1st down
11. Sack, -7 yards
12. Run, 5 yards
13. Pass, incomplete, 4th down, punt

14. Run, 3 yards
15. Run, 2 yards



On 1st down,

13 were pass plays, with 3 sacks, predominately in the first half.
10 were run plays, predominately in the 2nd half.



Game 2: Packers vs. Bengals

First 15 plays: (Often known as the scripted plays)

1. Pass, incomplete
2. Run, 3 yards
3. Pass, incomplete, 11 yard penalty on Bengals
4. Run, 1 yard
5. Pass, incomplete
6. Pass, incomplete, 4th down, punt

//Comments: Wow, this is almost identical to last week's play, save for a lot more throws down the field and the 5th play being a pass instead of a run.

7. Pass, 6 yards
8. Run, 8 yards, 1st down
9. Run, 8 yards
10. Pass, incomplete
11. Pass, 21 yards, 1st down
12. Run, 2 yards
13. Pass, 16 yards, 7 yards roughing the passer penalty
14. Run, 1 yards
15. Run, 2 yards, penalty on Packers declined

//Comments: Wow. Despite the entirely different down and distance, the first 15 plays are eerily similar between week 1 and week 2. We'll see next week how much McCarthy shuffles it around.


On 1st down,

20 were pass plays, with 3 sacks. 6 in the first half, 14 in the second.
8 were run plays, with only 3 in the second half.



Game 3: Rams vs. Packers

First 15 plays: (Often known as the scripted plays)

1. Run, 1 yard
2. Run, 10 yards, 1st down
3. Pass, 2 yards
4. Run, no gain
4a. Defensive penalty, 5 yards, 1st down
5. Pass, 13 yards, 1st down
6. Run, -1 yard
7. Sack, -7 yards
8. Run (scramble), 4 yards, 4th down, FG.

9. Pass, 5 yards, defensive penalty, 5 yards, 1st down
10. Run, 2 yards
11. Pass incomplete
12. Sack, -12 yards, 4th down, FG

13. Run, 1 yard
13a. Offensive penalty, -5 yards
14. Pass incomplete
15. Pass, 8 yards, 4th down, FG


On 1st down,

10 were pass plays.
18 were run plays (1 was brought back on a penalty). 11 were in the 2nd half. 2 additional kneel downs.

Game 4: Packers vs. Vikings

First 15 plays: (Often known as the scripted plays)

1. Run, no gain
2. Pass, 13 yards, 1st down
3. Run, 6 yards, penalty
3a. Pass, 2 yards
4. Pass, 16 yards
4a. False start penalty
5. Pass, 13 yards, 1st down
7. Pass, incomplete
8. Run, 3 yards
8. Pass, 18 yards, 1st down
9. Sack, -9 yards, fumble

10. Pass, incomplete
11. Run, 5 yards
12. Pass, 62 yards, TD

13. Pass, 9 yards
14. Run, 7 yards
15. Sack, -7 yards



On 1st down,

26 were pass plays. 18 in the second half.
7 were run plays (2 were scrambles). 4 were in the 2nd half.

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Discussion follows below.

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Does I detect a bit of predictability.

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Nice post. I feel like McCarthy always picks the wrong plays to run on. Also, with 14 & 15 there, 16 was also a run play and we went three and out. What the hell? Our passing game is our strength, and yes, I do understand we have to have a respectable run game so passing becomes easier but seriously, this gets annoying. We get into a long 2nd down situation and so we run it? We decide to setup third down with just as long to go instead of a short pass to cut it down a little bit? Oh and how about getting that first down on a nice long 13 yard pass play. Hey, I've got an idea, let's run it twice and get two yards and setup another shitty third and long situation. GAH!!!

We don't have a playmaking running back. I'm ready to bag Grant, the guy falls down all the time and doesn't make any moves in space. He doesn't see the hole or cut back to try and make a play. Look at everyone else's backfield with dynamic backs, most teams even have a bruiser and a speedster, what do we have? Wynn and Grant? Terrible combination. I know we kept Wynn because he can pick up the blitz but come on.

I'm serious about this too, McCarthy's play-calling sucks and is too damn predictable. I swear I knew when almost every run play was getting called. Plus look at our successful drives in the second half, they were spurred by a good passing game (until our o-line killed us with a sack). I mean, I felt odd completely abandoning the run because I don't agree with that but McCarthy needs to know when to run and when not to.

So if the first 15 plays are scripted(which I don't remember hearing MM say he scripts it like Holmgren did, shrug), then this argument is about as weak as it can be. Go for the gusto and prove a point by showing the plays for the entire game, then compare what MM is doing while trying to adjust as the game goes on. More important is the last 15 plays, not the first 15 plays. The last 15 plays might be just as predictable, but I can't contend that the first 15 plays prove much of anything, other than we have always been a slow starting team in the 1st quarter, which your post proves.

All these arm chair coaches that claim they can predict the plays need to do it during the game, for the entire game. Oh yeah, you have as good as a coin toss chance in being right, so doesn't take much effort to predict there.

Just like your other post DJCubez, please give me a play breakdown on video to show Grant going down like a girl scout, it's not happening. This forum is starting to sound like PPO and breaking down the KAO offense. Was everyone claiming MM's offense was too predictable the last two years while we had great success?

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I am a bit confounded by the criticism on McCarthy. I'll be the first to admit that McCarthy seems to get "tunnel-vision" (compliments to fellow forum member, Silentio, for this term) but too many times so far this year he's had to deal with unacceptable down and distances. Who is at fault for that? The cruddy offensive line play and the boneheaded penalties.

I believe him when he says it's difficult to call a game when you deal with so many 2nd and 12+ or 3rd and 14+.

I hate to so severely simplify this stupid thing (alliteration!) but ... really ... it seems to be an issue of execution -- not playcalling. How 'bout that first series against Cincy? Two drops? Really? That's unacceptable.

We honestly did SOOOO many things wrong against the Bengals that I'm hoping we can chalk it up to just that -- we had a BADDDDD game. If the Rams give us similar problems (or rather, if we commit the same sort of self-inflicted wounds) then it's really time to worry.

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The other thing that makes me laugh about looking at the first 15 plays is that the plays 7-15 were part of a successful touchdown drive? So what are we complaining about there? And if we look at only 3 more offensive plays we have 2 TDs. I don't have any idea what is wrong with that. 14 points in 18 offensive plays, I'm ok with that.

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Scripting is a staple of the WCO. Don't know of any team that runs it that doesn't script.

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The play that really bothered me the most among other things was when the packers got the ball fairly deep in their own territory down 28-21 with under 4 minutes to go. Time to get it into gear and tie the game!!! And McCarthy calls...a run up the middle that gains 1 yard.

Now that may not sound like much, but think of it like this - if McCarhty doesn't call that play, maybe Rodgers and the gang would have had enough time to tie the game at the end? Heck, instead of just wasting that down, maybe we convert the first down instead of going 3 and out. And even if we don't score, maybe the Bengals don't get a chance to make it a 10 point game? Better yet with that extra down...maybe the Packers drive down field and tie the game right there. Without having to worry about any of this.

Even if that play call DID catch the Bengals off guard, with the offensive line playing so bad and Clifton out of the game there was a low percentage the play would have gone very far anyway. The risk just didn't make sense here...at lest run it outside and see if Grant can create something...

Not saying Mike is a bad coach or the reason why we lost, but I have to question his decision making. Particularly late in games.

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I believe it is too early to tell whether we can find anything conclusive from this very small sample of plays.

Honestly when I started I didn't think we'd find any significant correlation and I expect this to be the case over the next 14 weeks.

In hindsight I probably should have reserved 16 posts, but I'll just edit everything into the first post as we play our games.

Tezzy, my aim for posting only 1st downs and the first 15 plays was because there was much comment on our slow starts. Is it because of our choice of plays or our predictability? Perhaps these statistics will shed some light on that over the course of the season.

Humans are creatures of habit and find explanatory power in things that are not necessary statistically significant. But this also extends to McCarthy as well who calls the plays - any prior indication of tendencies will be exploited.

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